Looking for info on DMHE/Gordon method

[Three]

. I read once was where he practiced 40 decks and was excited about the exact precision of play. 40 decks? Really? Gawd!

If you are 100% accurate after a 40 deck shoe there need not be an issue with him being inaccurate due to the difficulty of his count. I have seen Tarzan demonstrate his count down skill hundreds of times. I have only seen him err once. He calls the 15 cards left from the 2 decks of cards every time. He was intoxicated and dead tired the time I saw him make a minimal mistake. Nobody with half a brain would play intoxicated or dead tired despite being both. He is a perfectionist and to him no error is minimal.

[ZenKinG]

I am a conservative investor. I know it is gambling and it could turn on a market panic or revolutionary news in the industry. The news may be another company making your companies drug(s) antiquated or worse news that they are dangerous. You are very young and can take much more risk than many. Your risk profile should start very high as in youth and gradually shift to very secure as you advance in years. I have seen greed have paper fortunes disappear over night because the person didn't use at least a little caution. My taste for risk would have me locking in a 66% share profit and have the initial investment to invest in other diligently picked investments which when the shares are eventually converted to dollars far down the road include all the growth and income. I have seen many multimillionaires in the market lose almost everything because they didn't cash some in when the stock went through the roof.

You ever hear of the tech bubble. A number friends of mine each had millions in profits on paper. One was getting stock options where he worked and told everyone it had gotten so high he had to sell a portion to lock in the profits. He bought a mini-mansion in one of the best neighborhoods with cash and kept a big wad of cash. All the others told him how dumb he was for selling 50% of his golden gooses eggs. Two months later the golden goose was dead and all the golden eggs had turned to bronze when the bubble burst. His 50% he had left was worth 20% of the value he got for the 50% he sold. These lessons have been learned over and over by your seniors. Do yourself a favor and don't learn it the hard way. Take at least some profit from the unbelievable wind falls. If things had continued to soar my friend would still have cashed a million to enjoy and had over a million dollars invested. The way things went he had a few hundred thousand cash an $800,000 mini-mansion and $200K in stock rather than $400K in stock.

Like I said many times you have the benefit of youth so messing up big by not following the advice when it would turn out to be the huge move in the future won't be a retirement killer like it would be for an aging investor. Risk is not your enemy yet but prudent taking of a portion of your profit to limit or eliminate risk while allowing further opportunities and a diverse, sector crash protected, portfolio is prudent investing.

Tthree believe me, I know there will be a time I will sell, but my point is, the time to sell hasn't come yet, I'm thinking around 1.00, then 1.50, 2.00 etc. This has at least a 3-5$ target with one ART drug marketed, so I'm thinking maybe at 1-1.50 i will sell a portion to lock in profits. The train just started and the technology has been proven in the past by this company, they just had no funding at the time and companied along with the recession, the company halted and share price plummeted. Now the company is well funded with many financial loans and insider donations from the CEO and chairman of the board giving millions to the company(some confidence huh?). Trials are very unlikely to fail as they were proven in the past from a multitude of studies, so it should creep up to at least over a dollar and that's when ill contemplate to sell maybe 15-20% of my holdings.

That was my point, I never said it's not ok to sell and I 100% agree with you that there will be a time to lock in some money, because who knows what can happen, but for a guy who hasn't researched the company as far as i do, your sell point is off right now and that was my diagreement with you, because this company almost has no downside to reach dollar land, believe me, UNLESS, the headquarters catches fire.

I'm looking to put some stop limit orders around 1.00 or 1.50 when it reaches above that point, because with so many upcoming catalysts and confidence the trials will succeed for their billion dollar abuse resistant drugs, 1.00-1.50 is very ascertainable inthe future and that's hen ill put my frst stop limit order in case of a major pullback.

[Rudy]

Rudy Rudy Rudy: You play an average of 30 hours per week and were even the month of January? And yet you question me in a post for leaving the table with a profit? Ruudster: Get a life man. (no offense). Seriously, you're a good guy and I hope your profits take off and soar the rest of 2014 and beyond.

Moses, Moses, Moses, you again.... With your mind full of voodoo **** I had a little respect for you, because I thought you were the closest human being to use a system like Tarzan, but that my friend vanished. But now, seriously, is so clear that you don't have the slightest idea what bj is, someone who still wondering why you have to use basic strategy? even you keep wondering why you have to hit 12 vs. 3 or 12 vs. 4, or wondering what would signal a time to take a break, end a session, or move to another casino, and thinking that if you see a purple-fly in a bj table you have to leave the game, because you have a "preconceveid notion of the margin of profit that you have planned".

And now, you came here, wondering why I'm break even in 120 hours? Pffff.... give me a break Moses! You can break even playin 10 years in a row.

Many people have given you valuable advices here, but have been in vain. Please Moses, limitate to post about the game that you "supposedly know". I am very sorry that you are posting this, you are the last person to write about this.

And like I said in the very first post you wrote, you should read more and post less.

Aaaaa... and no offense

[ZenKinG]

Gamblers don't always lose.

Get back to me in 1-3 years please. Gamblers lose in long run, we'll see if ELTP loses in long run. 1-3 years a good enough sample size for you?

[ZenKinG]

And now, you came here, wondering why I'm break even in 120 hours? Pffff.... give me a break Moses! You can break even playin 10 years in a row.

Very unlikely, maybe a career change at that point?

[Three]

The train just started and the technology has been proven in the past by this company, they just had no funding at the time and companied along with the recession, the company halted and share price plummeted.

That was my point, I never said it's not ok to sell and I 100% agree with you that there will be a time to lock in some money, because who knows what can happen, but for a guy who hasn't researched the company as far as i do, your sell point is off right now and that was my diagreement with you, because this company almost has no downside to reach dollar land, believe me, UNLESS, the headquarters catches fire.

The higher you can get you taking of the initial investment out the smaller the percent of your shares you give up. Let me tell you a tale of other issues that have come up in similar investments.

A long term investment in the development of a revolutionary treatment for a common issue took about 8 years to hit the market. The share price rose through this period but they needed capital and the few initial investors provided monetary infusions to keep their investment intact. Right before it was ready for world wide distribution the CEO didn't ask the investors for the last infusion of capital but got a loan that included, besides the interest you would expect, a huge portion of the company. The investors that had been there for 8 years just got hosed for most of the reward they would reap once the product was marketed. The investors threatened to sue and a compromised was reached that got them more than the deal but still significantly less than they should have gotten. The company only needed about 20 million dollars which would have been easily raised by the initial investors but they were never notified of the need. What happened was criminal but these types of criminals usually get away with their crimes. The financial giants are where the watchdogs are selected from and they don't usually go after their own. Unexpected things happen in all sorts of ways.

[KJ]

Pffff.... give me a break Moses! You can break even playin 10 years in a row.

I don't often disagree with what you say Rudy, but ah...I don't know about this one.

There recently was a post on Wong's site where a long-term member, talked about his years long downturn that basically has resulted in more than a decade, like 17 years of 'break even' play. The writing of the post was a little fuzzy and interpreted several different ways but best case scenario was that he was just slightly ahead after 17 years. The worse interpretation had him down several hundred grand. I, like many others had some real problems with this. Almost nothing is impossible. Norm's software teaches us that. If there is a 0.0001 chance of something happening, then it is possible. And somebody has to be that one in a million guy that something happens to.

I had a 4 month losing period last year. I have had 6 month periods of zero growth, consisting of a losing period and slow rebound in 2 of my last 4 years. A couple guys, I think maybe Flash, but may be mistaken, have talked about year long losing periods. Of course it is all subjective to just how much time you play. I play a lot and suspect my 6 month breakeven period may be equivalent to someone else's year. But, it is hard for me to accept the idea of playing a winning game, with a reasonable advantage and losing year after year. After a year or two, depending on just how much you play, a player better step back and evaluate things, particularly whether he is even playing with an advantage. This includes whether he is giving back any advantage that he might have in cover or tip, etc.

[Rudy]

Moses, I can see that break even for a month is a life for you... keep going my friend lol is so funny

[Three]

But I can now see where your strategy works far better. Sitting hand after hand only to break even and watch your life pass by. Shrewd!

You really believe that every 120 hours he lays results in a loss or no profit? Are you just flaming or showing your lack of experience at the swings in this game. KJ has written of losing streaks months long that are 30% or more of his yearly expectation but he still hits or exceeds this 6 figure expectation each year. I know I string together months of large wins every trip and then hit a few trips in a row that wipe out a much longer win streak. Those downswings aren't but maybe 40 to 60 hours of play but the recovery usually takes even more hours. All told the break even point with the recovery included is usually at least 120 hours. I still make the money in the long run thanks to some long sustained winning streaks. Like KJ I usually come in above EV for the year but I don't play as much or for as large the stakes. My stakes seem to be about 1/3 to 1/2 of KJs and my yearly EV is about the same fraction of KJ's. I have a higher EV per dollar-hour because I accurately use a stronger system. I play about 80% or less of the time KJ plays for the same relative EV adjusted for unit size. His swings seem to be longer and more severe but that might just reflect the extra time exposure. I would expect that with the broader bell curves associated with a simpler count around advantage estimates and playing decisions than my count. The EV difference isn't that different but I ride a less thrilling roller coaster. I get enough thrills with my ride so I don't need any longer rough patches or severe swings. I do wonder on those short swings I do have that are pretty severe if I am making mistakes. I guess we all go through that but the chances are certainly higher that a complex system would lead to mistakes and I am sure that some of those bad times could be from a mistake.

[Rudy]

I don't often disagree with what you say Rudy, but ah...I don't know about this one.

There recently was a post on Wong's site where a long-term member, talked about his years long downturn that basically has resulted in more than a decade, like 17 years of 'break even' play. The writing of the post was a little fuzzy and interpreted several different ways but best case scenario was that he was just slightly ahead after 17 years. The worse interpretation had him down several hundred grand. I, like many others had some real problems with this. Almost nothing is impossible. Norm's software teaches us that. If there is a 0.0001 chance of something happening, then it is possible. And somebody has to be that one in a million guy that something happens to.

I had a 4 month losing period last year. I have had 6 month periods of zero growth, consisting of a losing period and slow rebound in 2 of my last 4 years. A couple guys, I think maybe Flash, but may be mistaken, have talked about year long losing periods. Of course it is all subjective to just how much time you play. I play a lot and suspect my 6 month breakeven period may be equivalent to someone else's year. But, it is hard for me to accept the idea of playing a winning game, with a reasonable advantage and losing year after year. After a year or two, depending on just how much you play, a player better step back and evaluate things, particularly whether he is even playing with an advantage.

Of course KJ, maybe I was overdone with the 10 years, but obviously it can happen, maybe 1 in 1,000,000,000,000 but it can happen, the point is that you got my point, but to some people you have to explain that with apples, imagine if you had to explain to the same guy the basic strategy table...

[ZenKinG]

The higher you can get you taking of the initial investment out the smaller the percent of your shares you give up. Let me tell you a tale of other issues that have come up in similar investments.

A long term investment in the development of a revolutionary treatment for a common issue took about 8 years to hit the market. The share price rose through this period but they needed capital and the few initial investors provided monetary infusions to keep their investment intact. Right before it was ready for world wide distribution the CEO didn't ask the investors for the last infusion of capital but got a loan that included, besides the interest you would expect, a huge portion of the company. The investors that had been there for 8 years just got hosed for most of the reward they would reap once the product was marketed. The investors threatened to sue and a compromised was reached that got them more than the deal but still significantly less than they should have gotten. The company only needed about 20 million dollars which would have been easily raised by the initial investors but they were never notified of the need. What happened was criminal but these types of criminals usually get away with their crimes. The financial giants are where the watchdogs are selected from and they don't usually go after their own. Unexpected things happen in all sorts of ways.

Decent point, but like I said Elite is in a great financial position and is currently talking with sveral big pharmas that are interested in their tech. One thing to not, is that the current CEO was previously Vice President of Actavis, third largest pharmaceutical in the world. He has the connections and has the reputation. Elite already has a partner that is a private pharma, and has helped them tremendously cut manufacturing costs on their other generic drugs. Nonetheless elite will probably need a partner to market their big time abuse resistant drugs at the end of the day and many big pharmas are interested, my guess one of them would be his former company Actavis, but he won't take a low-ball offer. We might even get bought out down the road.

But all in all, decent point tthree, doesn't look like it will happen here with elite, but something to take note of. Thanks

[Rudy]

Rudy...I was kidding!!! Truth be told, I have a great deal of respect for you. But 10 years? Here is a novel idea. win more play less? More power to you, my friend.

yea right...

[Rudy]

win more play less? More power to you, my friend.

Wow... it's amazing you're still not understanding the point. I play every week day, after work, from 5 pm. to 8 pm. if things goin well, if don't, I play until 10-11 pm, sundays I can play all the evening. When you play too many hours you realize the terrible variance there is in this game. KJ can explain that better than me. How many hours do you play at month? be honest.