Blackjack Tournament

[muffdiver]

is it then fair to say that card counting is preferable during early and mid game?
it is the end game where deviations can be used when they are very simple and well documented.
in the end game when it is complex with multiple players doing large deviations and it is very difficult to
understand what is really going on that one is such as myself confused then resort to card counting
and not join the battle.
yes, if you can understand clearly the complex and see a deviation that increases your ev then go ahead and join the battle.
it sounds like the posters to this thread don't have concern of ror and br management. they have expendable funds to lose it all
at tourney -- the fees and buy ins I mean.
for me if I deviate with plays with large bets and strange plays then I am risking my br. a steep losing streak at tourneys could harm me.
fees and buy ins could cost thousands in tourneys.
a losing streak in tourneys could cost tens of thousands with live action money buy ins.

Apparently you've been out of the "tourney loop" for a while because I'm not aware of a single live money event at any place. If there are any, they are damn few.

[Three]

If counting gets in the way of proper tournament strategy then you shouldn't be counting.

Seems like we are on the same page Gron.

[Three]

The reason that this is relevant here is that some of the strategies lend themselves to variations in bet size and timing and for those I have included variants which consider the count. So there might be a bot which employs "strategy X" and another which uses "strategy X with counting". In every case, for every situation I have studied, the bot that uses counting either has the same performance as the variant which does not or performs worse. The reason is that these bots sometimes mistime their moves (in a strategic sense) because of the count. They either move too early or too late, or they make big move when out of position, so that their opponents can easily counter them.

Like I said the same page.

[Nyne]

I just want to say that Gronbog's posts in this thread are gold. If you have any interest in tourneys, I suggest you read all of his posts here and elsewhere. His responses are based on analyzing the math in depth, simulating where needed, and lots of experience. They are clear, concise, and to the point. We are lucky to have him here.

[Three]

I just want to say that Gronbog's posts in this thread are gold. If you have any interest in tourneys, I suggest you read all of his posts here and elsewhere. His responses are based on analyzing the math in depth, simulating where needed, and lots of experience. They are clear, concise, and to the point. We are lucky to have him here.

Thanks Nyne. I have been Archiving Gron's posts for some time now. I read them before I play in any tournament. His most lengthy post in this thread made the Gron Archives on my computer. Around here he is definitely the tournament goto guy for strategy advice. If you go to Ken's site on BJ tournaments I am sure there are many worthy posters that compete with Gron when posting. I visited that site for a while until I figured out that the tournaments around here required me to grow my BR enough to bet bigger to get the invites. Now that I have done that to a degree that gets me some invites to invite only tournaments I have been looking at the archives a lot more often. I guess if I quadruple my BR again this coming year maybe I will be getting those invites that still elude me.

[muffdiver]

I concur with that. gronbog knows his stuff!

[muffdiver]

Thanks Nyne. I have been Archiving Gron's posts for some time now. I read them before I play in any tournament. His most lengthy post in this thread made the Gron Archives on my computer. Around here he is definitely the tournament goto guy for strategy advice. If you go to Ken's site on BJ tournaments I am sure there are many worthy posters that compete with Gron when posting. I visited that site for a while until I figured out that the tournaments around here required me to grow my BR enough to bet bigger to get the invites. Now that I have done that to a degree that gets me some invites to invite only tournaments I have been looking at the archives a lot more often. I guess if I quadruple my BR again this coming year maybe I will be getting those invites that still elude me.

True. At Ken's site S. Yama, Monkeysystem, Leftnut and Ken himself are probably the best there.

[Gronbog]

Thanks to all for your kind words. I may study the game more than some, but there are certainly many, many players out there who are much better at actually playing the tournaments. Just read through the threads on Ken's site and you will find many threads highlighting errors I have made and brain cramps that I have had in live play. My arithmetic skills are particularly flaky . It's easy to come up with the right answers when armed with a computer and plenty of time. My hat is always off to those who can come up with those answers quickly in the heat of battle. Those mentioned by muffdiver above are among the best, but there are others there as well.

[Gronbog]

is it then fair to say that card counting is preferable during early and mid game?

No. My simulations would seem to indicate just the opposite. The bots all use different strategies for the early and mid game, but all have the same finishing skills. The bots that employ counting universally perform the same as or worse than their counterparts that do not count. I might add here that no bot that uses counting has ever been the top performer in any tournament or scenario I have studied.

[mhb]

No. My simulations would seem to indicate just the opposite. The bots all use different strategies for the early and mid game, but all have the same finishing skills. The bots that employ counting universally perform the same as or worse than their counterparts that do not count. I might add here that no bot that uses counting has ever been the top performer in any tournament or scenario I have studied.

there is another piece to all of this.
I am told that no longer are there real live action money tourneys, the tourneys use funny money and they are invite only.
thus there is no entry fee as they are by invite and not live money. thus my concern about ev and ror of br is moot.
thus, no one loses any real money on a tourney as they are free.
is this correct, as I am told.
so in your studies how much money is actually won by tourney strategy play and how much by mostly card counting.
what is the spread of profits horizontally over all players?
what are the expected value spread over all players?
it sounds like every player has a positive ev, but card counters have less than others, is this true.
card counting is in lower percentages of ev??
I think ev is the key figure, as ror is moot, the tourneys are by invite with funny money.
if there is an entry fee real money then I think we must consider the fees effect on br and on ev.

[Three]

there is another piece to all of this.
I am told that no longer are there real live action money tourneys, the tourneys use funny money and they are invite only.
thus there is no entry fee as they are by invite and not live money. thus my concern about ev and ror of br is moot.
thus, no one loses any real money on a tourney as they are free.
is this correct, as I am told.

Around my area this is mostly true but I am sure other areas have plenty of pay tournaments. Some wit very large prize pools. There are usually comped entry as well to the pay tournaments.

so in your studies how much money is actually won by tourney strategy play and how much by mostly card counting.

If I understood Gron correctly the counting bots have struck out never winning.

There are free crappy rules tournaments that are open to all players card holders. The prize structure is small. The fastest dealers I have ever seen deal these tournaments. If you want to se how you are at counting against a speed dealer try one of these. These asian ladies deal at warp speed. Much faster than anything I have seen in the casino. Your qualifier is 10 rounds.

[Norm]

Card counting is pretty much useless in tournys. Much better off spending your time observing the other players.

[Gronbog]

thus, no one loses any real money on a tourney as they are free.
is this correct, as I am told.

There still exist both invitation-only tournaments and buy-in tournaments, even at the same casino. The invitationals can, of course be +EV by definition, however some of them have hidden costs that you don't find out about until you register. In one, there was a "hot ace" coupon that could be purchased before each round for $100. This coupon could be used once during the round to change any non-busting card into an Ace. This was a no-limit tournament with 2/1 blackjacks. The advantage of holding one of these is so huge that you would be foolish not to buy it. If even a few people at your table had one, you would have almost no chance without it. Another offered one max bet in extra chips for $5. Also a no brainer. These kinds of costs must, of course be factored into your EV estimate for the tournament.

so in your studies how much money is actually won by tourney strategy play and how much by mostly card counting.
what is the spread of profits horizontally over all players?
what are the expected value spread over all players?

The answers to these questions differ from tournament to tournament, as each has different bankrolls, maximums, minimums, number of hands, number of rounds,rules, etc. Some tournament formats favour aggressive play, others favour a conservative approach. This causes different strategies to perform better at different events.

it sounds like every player has a positive ev, but card counters have less than others, is this true.
card counting is in lower percentages of ev??

This has been true at least for the tournaments I have studied.

I think ev is the key figure, as ror is moot, the tourneys are by invite with funny money.
if there is an entry fee real money then I think we must consider the fees effect on br and on ev.

Yes, as noted above. You must consider all expenses including entry fees, extra fees for special advantages, travel costs, lodging, meals, etc.