I never see other APs

[ZenKinG]

i dunno if its me or not but i can spot someone up to something alot of the time. I have seen some weird **** in the casino when i know somone was up to something. It was either a super advance plays or a cheating move that i couldnt figure it out.

most of the time i can spot a card counter before they even sit down at a table. It takes one to know one. Almost all the time i can spot a counter if there playing in the same pit as me and i really don't need to watch there game to be supicious. The biggest give away is how they interact with the pit. Most people are either very timmid, quite and focused on what there doing or they are either way out of line and way too much of " counter babble"

How i spot people up to something that i dont understand like a super advanced play or a cheating move is by there body language. What i do in a casino is always follow the money. I am young in my ap career but what i learned so far is really dont believe anything anybody says about conditions or learning advance stuff. I want to do the research myself. With that being said i am always looking for things and i follow the money in the casino. What i mean is i watch for larger wagers and just to watch because i figure most successful aps arent going to bet small. Sometimes this leads leads me to believe someone is up to something and the biggest give away is making eye contact with that person and them moving away from ur stare pretty quick. You know there up to something but you can't figure it out. I then store the memory and see if i can figure out what there doing. Most the time i cant but i store all those memories until the day something clicks.

Perfect way for financial ruin, if its not a science im not willing to put money on it, even if you're just taking away expressions, one thing leads to another, and soon you're actually believing it and wagering money for no reason, when all it is is a ploppy thats nervous or a degen.. Honestly, being a successful counter comes down to common sense and having a bankroll. Of course you have to be good and have a good knowledge of the game and money management(ROR). But to me it comes down to the following.

Bankroll, excel spreadsheet, log, mark each shift you played, dont play same shift for a while, mix it around and move, CVCX, and MOST importantly STAY at casino TOLERANCE levels while still making a worthwhile EV per hour. People make it out to be more than it really is.

If all else fails, take casinos to court like Uston

[Smartpart]

Well, Moo, I should clarify the question a bit then I guess.

GIVEN that a counter IS competent and playing with an advantage, (which, ahem, I believe I am) IS it really "so bad" to deliberately let a plus-count pass you by, just occasionally in an effort to not be greedy, to shear the sheep rather than skin it, to keep the welcome open, etc...

Seems to me, it might be tough to calculate exactly how much this "costs"... since it's kind of like proving a negative.

Quite simple really. Consider the amount of times you pass up a bet raise, frequency of TCs, and action difference.

It's more of a philosophy question maybe, than a strict dollars & cents value proposition.

The way I look at it, it's really like I'm just giving up (or "spending") TIME, and not "losing advantage" or giving up "edge" really.

Your edge comes from getting money down that returns more on positive bets than you lose on negative bets. I'm not saying your approach should be no cover, but on a limited bank you should consider the implications beforehand instead of winging it as it sounds like you are doing. When you play less money in good counts, you're not just giving up EV, but messing with your risk profile and long run viability.

Like if you're sitting at home and a blackjack shoe at the casino, ten minutes away from you, goes massively plus-count... but you're not there to bet into it?

This is just silly.

Did that happening really "cost" you something? You'll be there to play it the next time it happens... and take your due then.

And if a tree falls in the forest.... ?

ON the other hand, letting the odd, one-off, random possible surveillance guy who might be watching me, OBSERVE that I didn't raise my bet into a positive count... and therefore make a note on my file that I'm "probably NOT a card counter" (despite an increasing lifetime-win number... which troubles me these days, honestly)... is kind of the point.

How do you figure when the eye is watching you? or do you do it only when being scrutinized on the floor?

So... sacrilege, against the AP Bible? Or prudent, don't-be-greedy, advanced AP-career management? LOL

-DBJT

P.S. By the way, I know re: above "just giving up, or spending, time" and "Time Is Money" etc etc etc... but, still... question stands...

P.P.S. OK well I realized after posting this that it's kind of a bad example, tree falling in forest, because actually I am increasing the time I spend playing neutral or negative shoes vs. offsetting those bets with larger bets into PLUS shoes... so, yeah, it DOES "cost" something tangible... but, still... question stands...

I tried to comment on thi yesterday, but I guess it didn't send so here it goes again. Might be a little late to the party, but I refuse to keep up with the 8 pages of madness.

See red in quote.

[Jentho]

Many, many players not only have no "dedication" to travel but indeed NO INTEREST in travelling for the game, AT ALL.

There are vastly more players who are (or could be, anyway) "serious" about beating the game, but who have ZERO interest in becoming full time travelling pros. The number of people who could take up this game as a full-time job, to make their living, is a vanishing-small number compared to the vast number of players who study the game, buy books about counting, buy software to practice, and try to play "seriously" but ONLY in their local casinos, and only part time, plus maybe for a yearly vacation trip to Vegas... stuff like that.

Therefore, the number of players who really DO need to pay attention to "local store longevity" is much higher than the number of players who can afford to play balls-to-the-wall, take-no-prisoners, and just burn out a string of casinos in order to pull up stakes and move on to the next town!



This thinking is dangerously short-sighted.

If you're NOT interested in becoming a full-time traveling pro (again, the vast majority of players) and you master the game so that you can play conservatively in your local stores only (incurring zero travel costs, I might add) and earn even just a steady .5% edge... but keep your welcome OPEN for the game in your local casinos for YEARS, or *decades*, versus "taking as much as you can" quickly, achieving maybe 1.5% or 2% but getting your ass kicked to the curb after just 1 year... how is that in any way "better" in the long run scheme of things?

For the time and effort it takes to really LEARN this game (many months of practice at minimum, more likely a few years to really get competent) to burn out your ability to PLAY it at all, locally part time cheaply... really ain't a good plan, IMHO.

Guys like Arnold Snyder KNOW what they're talking about, they write this stuff for a REASON, and short-sighted beginner players who choose to willfully ignore it do so at their own peril...

-DBJT

My comments were based on the assumption that the player is taking it seriously and not trying to scrape a profit from one or two places for any lengthy time period. You mentioned keeping doors open for "years" or even "decades". If you are counting at one place for years, let alone decades, consistently (meaning many times a month) and do not get a back off I would have to assume that player has no idea what they are doing. Counting is the easiest thing to detect. I don't care how much cover you use most surveillance departments will pick you off. One thing must be true... your bet fluctuation correlates with count. This is not to say that there are not casinos out there that are clueless and will let you play for an excessive amount of time but that certainly isn't the norm. Players get too rapped up in cover plays. There are certain times when cover is a necessity but to play every session with paranoid profit cutting cover plays is silly.

[DBJT]

My comments were based on the assumption that the player is taking it seriously... If you... do not get a back off I would have to assume that player has no idea what they are doing. Counting is the easiest thing to detect...

It's a fair assumption, but IMHO happens to not be true.

Short sessions... unrated play... *judicious* use of *some* cover (not so much that you kill your edge, of course... nobody said to go CRAZY)... back-counting and Wong-In a lot... and playing even ONLY in just 2 or 3 local casinos, two or three times a week, it's entirely possible to completely fly under the radar.

Possible, mind you... not simple or necessarily easy. But possible.

And this is not "theory", either, I'm living proof of it. My playing log books and bank account are proof that it works, and my *edge* is preserved.

The ONE THING that CAN still "get you" in the end, however, is still the long-tallied "lifetime win".

Rat-holing helps a lot there (really, it's the only thing that MIGHT put a dent in it) but even then... play long enough ("decades") and even that will catch up to everyone, eventually.

That's why I'm now looking into all this additional higher-variance "cover" stuff like opposition betting, etc... personally, I think I may NEED it.

But for someone who's not there yet? More power to ya... just be aware that YOU TOO will eventually have to deal with all this, like it or not.

-DBJT

[ohbehave]

... and MOST importantly STAY at casino TOLERANCE levels while still making a worthwhile EV per hour.

What should we look for to gauge tolerance?

[Three]

What should we look for to gauge tolerance?

How comfortable they are to big action. How sweaty the store. The size of the corporation and its casino in question. How they perceive your play. A lucky disadvantage player will be given almost infinite rope to hang himself but a player perceived to have skillz must not beat them for too much or too frequently. This is were having the discipline to walk away a little behind can really be helpful. Too many AP's fight to post a tiny win when a tiny lose has no significant difference to the long run but has a huge difference when it comes to longevity. An AP is like any other businessman. You can reap a large profit once or twice from a customer and lose him forever or Make a steady profit for an indefinite period of time. The businesses that fail have accountants that want that big short term profit but once their customer base is gone they go belly up. The mainstay companies know it is easier to keep a customer than find a new one. This is especially true for APs and their expenses. The further afield you must go to play the more the expenses are. Of course if you don't have a family or a life being a traveling AP with know home may suit you fine. Each AP has different skillz , BRs, demands on time away from AP pursuits and comfort levels for various models of play. Each must decide what fits them.

Some don't like the AP life and want a big score and leave the AP life behind. For them slash and burn approaches fit fine. Others enjoy the games for free time activities and extra income. For them being welcomed at their favorite locals is a top priority. There are an endless amount of pigeonholes to put various AP preferences in. No one right answer as to how to weigh EV over longevity. To some longevity is paramount while to others either their act is so bad that they have no hope of longevity or they are happy to hope to find playable games in new places and spend a lot on travel expenses rather than a little maintaining longevity.

[DBJT]

For the TL;DR crowd... this:

An AP is like any other businessman. You can reap a large profit once or twice from a customer and lose him forever or Make a steady profit for an indefinite period of time...

...underlined emphasis mine.

But overall another very good post in total from Tthree. All of it. It's not 'TL' and if you 'DR' you're a fool

Learn It. Know It. Live It... (apologies to Spiccoli, LOL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2NaHBVVYzY )

-DBJT

[DBJT]

...Let us all be friends here.

I agree Ouchez, and - really - I was tryin' to help... but as said earlier, there just ain't no reachin' some folks. So I gave up.

btw, my guy is both good looking... and rich... both of which help.

Well I'm kinda ugly and dumpy lookin' and I'm able to pass myself off in the casinos pretty well as a broke poor degenerate unskilled out of control desperate gambler... which -- when such an ACT is called for -- does seem to work. Gets the money, for sure.

So, whatever. To each his own.

-DBJT

[Sharky]

i give EXPERT advice and that's the thanks i get???....too funny...bye bye and GOOD LUCK all, seems as though you need it

[Norm]

Your post was deleted because name-calling is not allowed here.

[ZeeBabar]

My comments were based on the assumption that the player is taking it seriously and not trying to scrape a profit from one or two places for any lengthy time period. You mentioned keeping doors open for "years" or even "decades". If you are counting at one place for years, let alone decades, consistently (meaning many times a month) and do not get a back off I would have to assume that player has no idea what they are doing. Counting is the easiest thing to detect. I don't care how much cover you use most surveillance departments will pick you off. One thing must be true... your bet fluctuation correlates with count. This is not to say that there are not casinos out there that are clueless and will let you play for an excessive amount of time but that certainly isn't the norm. Players get too rapped up in cover plays. There are certain times when cover is a necessity but to play every session with paranoid profit cutting cover plays is silly.

My belief is that casinos are aware of counters. I do not think they fear 99% of counters who fluctuate their bets with the count. I think most counters understand the basics, to put out more money when count is favorable but precious few have studied enough or are aware or are well funded enough to spread the 1-8 or higher. Most part- timers, recreational counters do not walk into a casino carrying enough bankroll to win. For instance, I would often go with $300 and play a$10 minimum game and my session bankroll was just not large enough. Sometimes, I might win $200 and then the first bad streak, I would lose everything.

i also think that when you get a players card, they know you are employed full time and perhaps earn $40k a year, they are confident that you do not have the BR to really beat them so they let the locals play even knowing they are AP wanna-bes.

[ohbehave]

How do they get employment and income status? All I've ever provided is ID.

[RS]

I think Zee is saying that the locals (counters) likely don't have a proper BR. Not to mention, they likely don't threat the bottom line by red chipping, and on top of that likely aren't skillz'ed enough to play well.