Analyze my game please!

[Rainmaker]

I already posted that I appear to have been wrong about the spread issue. As for what you just referred to as being wrong about a surrender debacle...what was I wrong about? I agreed with the math but thought it would be a bad idea because it would bring undue heat and other problems could arise. A few people then decided to slander me because I expressed an honest opinion shared by others. I guess you're attempting to do the same now.

Yes I 'attempted' to slander you. Like the 100 times I 'tried' to beat up my little sister. I am an utter failure, I am never able to actually complete these heinous acts.

[Dog Hand]

Hi helpful and knowledgable members of this forum,

I've been counting for 5 years now, and my bet spread has really been formed only by going through a plethora of posts here and reading many BJ books - but nothing tailored specifically for me. It would really be great if someone could take a look and comment/advise on my game and let me know if there is a better way of playing. I'm a recreational player, but due to the nature of my day job, I have a lot of free time, so I go to Vegas around once a month for 3-4 days. I figure if I'm going to be counting, I should really be maximizing the profit potential.

I only play shoes. Most games I play are 6 deck, H17, around 75-85% pen, around half have surrender, most RSA, all DAS. I utilize i18 and f4. I rarely use cover and almost always wong out at -2 (unless playing heads-up, which I really prefer). I only play $5 and $10 games. If the minimum is higher, I'll back count and wong in at +2. I try and keep my sessions short, especially after a max bet or big win. I rarely feel heat. I also like to tip friendly/helpful dealers by placing a $1 chip on top of bets when the count is high. I keep it on top till I lose. If I left out any vital info, let me know.

Here's my current bet progression ($10 game):

0-1 = $10
+2 = 2x$30
+3 = 2x$60
+4 = 2x$90

Can someone tell me what my hourly win rate would be? Should I be doing something different to increase it (without bringing on heat)?

Thanks in advance!

My thought was (and I definitely remember seeing this in a few places) that when I spread to 2 hands, it's like I'm playing one hand for less than that amount. So my spread is really 1-12, but to lessen my risk, I can spread to 2x9 and it's considered the same (The one hand multiplied by 1.5).

I use hi-lo. My bankroll is replenishable. On each trip, I bring 700 units, and have more in the bank should I need it.

I'm not sure, since it's replenishable. Before it's replenished monthly, let's say $13k. With $2k added monthly. Thanks!

The tip on top for the dealer (which I think I saw on this forum, or the old one) is so that in a high count where I'm more likely to win, that $1 could turn into much more; whereas if you bet it in the traditional spot for dealers, once the hand is over, the tip bet is gone - win or lose - and you'd have to put another $ there if you wanted to tip again. With placing on top of bet, it could last for quite a few hands (I give the winning $ to dealer and keep original bet $ on top till I lose), and dealer gets a few dollars (hopefully) from that single $.

I almost always play unrated. I don't buy in/cash out every time when I wong in and out, unless I'm leaving that place. In a place where I play "longer" sessions and I can afford the table min., my wonging out is usually if the count is -2 or more, with half a shoe or less left. Then I leave my chips at the table and go to bathroom, check phone, etc. I come back for fresh shoe. A lot of my wonging in is at higher minimum tables that I can't play without wonging in, so if I've played there earlier and have chips, I'll use those. Otherwise I use cash.

countjack21,

I simmed a 6D, H17, RSA, LS game with 60 cards cut off (80% pen) for two players: you (HiLo I18 & Fab4, including splitting X's vs. a 5 and 6 when appropriate) and a B.S. player. I had you start each shoe, and wong out if the HiLo TC fell to -2 (or lower) but ONLY IN THE LAST THREE DECKS OF THE SHOE. Also, I had the software shuffle when you left, so these results have no "waiting time" in them.

I've posted pictures of the CVData output and the RoR calculation.
Countjack21 CVData Results.jpgCountjack21 RoR Results.jpg

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[countjack21]

countjack21,

I simmed a 6D, H17, RSA, LS game with 60 cards cut off (80% pen) for two players: you (HiLo I18 & Fab4, including splitting X's vs. a 5 and 6 when appropriate) and a B.S. player. I had you start each shoe, and wong out if the HiLo TC fell to -2 (or lower) but ONLY IN THE LAST THREE DECKS OF THE SHOE. Also, I had the software shuffle when you left, so these results have no "waiting time" in them.

I've posted pictures of the CVData output and the RoR calculation.
Countjack21 CVData Results.jpgCountjack21 RoR Results.jpg

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Dog Hand - This is perfect! Thanks so much! ~$40 and hour is definitely closer to what I had thought than the $18/hour previously posted in this thread. Now I can justify my $35 Vegas haircuts and the occasional table massage.

Really appreciate your help.

[21gunsalute]

Yes I 'attempted' to slander you. Like the 100 times I 'tried' to beat up my little sister. I am an utter failure, I am never able to actually complete these heinous acts.

From the tone of your posts I'd think it much more likely that you get beat up on a regular basis by your little sister.

[countjack21]

From the tone of your posts I'd think it much more likely that you get beat up on a regular basis by your little sister.

Is it weird that I almost feel bad for posting because it seems to have caused this whole little squabble?

Damn Jewish guilt.

[21gunsalute]

Is it weird that I almost feel bad for posting because it seems to have caused this whole little squabble?

Damn Jewish guilt.

Don't worry about it, you did nothing wrong. I ran it w/o surrender the first time. With surrender I'm getting $14.20 hourly with a 5.4% ROR for 1 hand and $57.22 hourly with a 19.3% ROR for 2 hands. If I toggle 2 hands to +2 I get a win rate of $25.70/hour and a ROR of 5.3%. I did do it wrong the first time. The betting schedule @ +2 is:

+2=2x20
+3=2x30
+4=2x50
+5=2x70
+7=2x90

Hope this helps. Again, this is only for surrender.

[21gunsalute]

Don't worry about it, you did nothing wrong. I ran it w/o surrender the first time. With surrender I'm getting $14.20 hourly with a 5.4% ROR for 1 hand and $57.22 hourly with a 19.3% ROR for 2 hands. If I toggle 2 hands to +2 I get a win rate of $25.70/hour and a ROR of 5.3%. I did do it wrong the first time. The betting schedule @ +2 is:

+2=2x20
+3=2x30
+4=2x50
+5=2x70
+6=2x90

Hope this helps. Again, this is only for surrender.

Crap. This isn't right either. I ran it for Zen and not Hi-LO.

[21gunsalute]

Okay, one more time. I think I got everything right this time. Win rate is $25.63 hour. SD is 463.73/hour. ROR=4.5%

Betting Schedule:

+2=2x50
+3=2x80
+4=2x90

[Rainmaker]

From the tone of your posts I'd think it much more likely that you get beat up on a regular basis by your little sister.

OMG you slandered me. I am going to throw a fit now. I wish Tthree were here to blame for my shortcomings.