Surrendering a Second Hand

[Rainmaker]

Rainmaker you are missing the point. I am using a depth based strategy using TKO so after 1 deck dealt the the index of 15vs10 for surrendering is (-26), and the index of surrendering 14vs10 is (-16), therefore if the count for example is (-22), i would surrender the 15vs10 and hit instead of surrender the 14vs10. The question was if someone around here ,(only an AP player), think differently by surrendering both hands to only maximize the EV and lowering the negative variances for only a short term between 50-150 hours of playing alone with the dealer.

How would anyone know your specific strategy? If you did state it, I missed it. I am unfamiliar with depth based indices for KO. But it seems to me, the Hi-Lo index for NOT surrendering 15 is -1 Running for late surrender, which is the equivalent of -25 or -26 KO. With early surrender, it would be lower. The index for 14 v. 10 is +3 for LS...you are basically surrendering it at Hi-Lo +1, when it should be surrendered when the count is slightly negative with ES. So if you are using these indexes, I do not trust them. I am supposing you are shifting the indices, slightly dropping them with penetration. I do not see any gain in doing this, as such 'precision' still requires estimation, and impossibly perfect execution offers very marginal improvement. So to conclude, YES I would surrender both those hands if I were playing an ES game. But you should not deviate from deviations.

[kripton]

Well Rainmaker.. (by the way love your NIC, did you take it from the movie "Looper" ?),
The answer to your question is yes , it took me along time to work on my deck estimation, and i can do this almost perfectly including remembering a full index chart based on a half deck resolution.

I still do think both hands should be treated as independent event like most of the AP's around here, however for the short time i think you are right.

[Rainmaker]

Well Rainmaker.. (by the way love your NIC, did you take it from the movie "Looper" ?),The answer to your question is yes , it took me along time to work on my deck estimation, and i can do this almost perfectly including remembering a full index chart based on a half deck resolution.I still do think both hands should be treated as independent event like most of the AP's around here, however for the short time i think you are right.

Yes, Looper is awesome. Nice catch.It is impressive you can estimate so well. That is not my strong suit. I make up for it by conservative betting early, and aggressive late (which coincidentally, exploits the floating advantage). I do not get what you mean by independent event? Independent of your bet? It does not matter what your bet is, so in that sense, they are independent. But if it is even a close call to not surrender a 14 in ES, then your bet should definitely not be very large, unless you were using a side-count in a shoe with a skewed distribution. I was saying that you should essentially always follow your index. I was suggesting that in your particular example, it is OK for you to surrender the 14 if you want because many people, including myself, would do so based on our count.

[kripton]

Rainmaker what kind of game do you play ? floating advantage in a 6D starts when more then 80% percent of the cards are dealt actually it is close to 90%. It's hard to find a 6D game with a 90% cut, i guess you will not tell me where do you find does games .

Independent event are nothing to do with your bet level, unless you using a second level betting scale for your second spot if you are playing at a high TC, (or for camouflage), which i am not in this case.

Both of my bets are equal to my TC for both spots, each hand that you play according to the index are independent event.

As you already said and according to my example in a TC<0 there is not much of a different between surrendering both hands , or just one hand and playing according to the index in the second hand,(especially for the short term),
but for example in high TC (TC>4) when 2 decks left in the show, first hand is 15vs10 second hand is 15vs8 you should deftly follow the index of your second hand when you are putting your max bet out.

[Rainmaker]

That's not true. The floating advantage occurs immediately. The deeper you go the more it matters, though it is never significant. I do not play in deeply dealt game. Occassionally, I get a dealer who likes me and get 80%. I do not size bets due to the floating advantage, it is a coincidental. I am not great at deck estimation...I tend to treat every dealer the same, even though they all cut differently. And that 'sameness' usually results in underbetting early, and overbetting late. But since I'm over-conservative, I'm basically underbetting the entire time anyway. I'm going on and on, but basically, the floating advantage helps me a little bit because I tend to be aggressive late. I don't know what you mean by second level betting strategy...whether this is a risk-averse thing, or a cover strategy. But I do not think think it makes since to use two different betting strategies for each hand. I would not surrender the 15 v. 8. This hand is no different than surrendering late. I do not know where you get your indices. I do not even use the index since I cannot recall this hand ever happening, but mine would be around 7.

[kripton]

I agree, i would surrender the 15 vs 8 at TC equal to +7 , regarding to the floating advantage , when i said "floating advantage in a 6D starts when more then 80% percent..", i mean starts to have an impact..so basically we are saying the same.

Thanks for sharing.
Kripton