Originally Posted by
hardin county boy
thanks mrbj75--i am trying to learn something from these sharp math guys and i hope you and i are as wrong as they figure. otherwise, some AP who spends 6 months building a good win, only to lose it in 2 hours is as wrong as i figure he is and that just would not do. i did not share my table experience like you did as i anticipated the hooting---i learned basic strategy, bet up a little winning and down a little losing and tried to quit winners. i won the very first 17 trips i played, 1-120 units, some just dumb luck and some reckless gambling that came out ok but most really were as straightforward likely as you and i think.
the next 80 trips i played out much of the stuff these guys have been criticizing and turned having the game by the sack into being a lifetime LOSER, for now. most of these characters will wag their head and say they told me so---voodoo etc, as if they never strayed from doing what they knew was best in their game or have not been on the losing end of variance.
truth is, i started trying to get the game to do more than it does, got greedy, got compulsive and then got into bigger bets and chasing loses. i can honestly say i blew a good deal and when the wags say that is a familiar pattern, i REALLY agree BUT it was a violation of discipline, not the approach that broke down and that will screw anyone and is a common theme on why casinos thrive. i won't kid you, to this day, i remain comfortable that i am right in saying there is a lifetime winning way to the type play you and i describe---in the same way advantage players with monster lifetime losses do not negate the value of counting, my own mismanagement does not negate the perpetual motion machine that is my game.
i took a long break, took stock and relaunched 5 trips ago, all winners so far but "only" 20 unit average wins. i agree with the math guys that such streaks are not especially unusual but i will never embrace the idea of being willing to toss hard earned wins, too-easily, in the toilet "because the count is good"----i DID that already and it does not matter it was with disadvantaged play---the loss is the same as the hard working counter who has lost the same. i am probably a different guy who will not screw up the discipline this time around but my beloved voodoo stays--just won too consistently to let it go.
i am toying with a "hybrid" of making each trip a "session" which math guys correctly observe does not really exist----they got it figured i am an idiot for believing it is smart to let a trip be a confined session with a limit to loss but no limit to winning. i think adding advantage play and requiring that i be both "up" for the trip AND have a good count to spread bet size has prospects----if i am wrong, i am honored to provide endless hours of amusement for these long-suffering math-smarts, i gather from norm they have endured A LOT of what i am selling.
my best to all the guys who have replied.....
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