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Scott Delekta: Winning Strategy for Dragon Bonus Baccarat
The Dragon Bonus Bet is a side bet for the table game of baccarat. The paytable is shown below:
Win by 9 points (non-natural) 30 to 1
Win by 8 points (non-natural) 10 to 1
Win by 7 points (non-natural) 6 to 1
Win by 6 points (non-natural) 4 to 1
Win by 5 points (non-natural) 2 to 1
Win by 4 points (non-natural) 1 to 1
Natural winner 1 to 1
Natural tie Push
All other Loss
(8 Deck shoe)
House Edge Std Deviation
Banker 2.65% 2.30
Player 9.37% 2.47
Through the use of computer simulation this game can be beaten with card counting. Here is the first count I developed:
Dragon Master Count
Card Rank Count Value
Ace +2
2 +3
3 +3
4 +2
5 +1
6 +0.5
7 -2
8 -2
9 -2
10,J,Q,K -0.5
The simulation model used an 8 deck shoe and the shuffle point was 401/416. This is common penetration for live baccarat (14-16 cards cut position) since the primary game cannot be beaten with card counting. The Running Count (RC) begins at 0.
Here are the simulation results:
Each data point (min 200 million shoes simmed)
Dragon Player Bet (99% confidence level E =0.02%)
RC % occurence payout %
>=97 1.63 100.09
>=99 1.61 100.44
>=101 1.54 100.85
>=103 1.45 101.30
>=105 1.34 101.81
>=107 1.20 102.27
>=109 1.04 102.72
>=111 0.87 103.18
>=113 0.70 103.55
>=115 0.54 103.75
>=117 1.22 103.94
Dragon Bank Bet (99% confidence level E =0.02%)
RC % occurence payout %
>=114 0.33 100.02
>=115 0.54 100.32
>=117 0.40 100.80
>=119 0.82 101.06
The second count which I am currently running sims on should be mathematically equivalent but I wanted to verify via simulation. I will post the sim results soon.
Red Dragon Master Count
Card Rank Count Value
Ace +2
2 +3
3 +3
4 +2
5 +1
Red 6 +1
7 -2
8 -2
9 -2
Red 10,J,Q,K -1
This count is easier because the fractions have been removed and you have to count about 20% less cards.
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