I was pondering some of the ways a counter can reduce variance. Here is what I have thus far:

1) Cap the bet spread/reduce kelly/play a smaller unit. For shoe games, use around a 1 to 10 spread for play all game with Hi-Lo. Although a 1-12 spread is recommended, a 1-10 spread will reduce variance. Try to find games with good rules like late surrender and play as few deck as possible. Does resplitting of aces reduce or increase variance?

2) Wong in and out of shoes. If no midshoe entry is allowed, then at the very least you can wong out when the TC <= -1. But what if the TC = -.75 or -.50? Would these TCs justify wonging out of the shoe or is there still hope for the count to shoot up? If it makes a difference, I round the TC to the nearest integer.

3) A. Form a team!! More players mean more bets/hour...and if one player has a bad day that can be offset by the earnings of other players. It just helps to smooth out negative fluctuations and gets to the long term faster! Do not underestimate the laws of large numbers!!

B. Also, teammates playing independently from the same bankroll is superior to the BP/Spotter approach. Using this idea, teammates from different parts of the country can attack casinos without the hassle of playing at the same time in the same casino. Also with this method you don't have to worry about the BP getting signaled into tables at the same time when the count is good at different tables. So train people that you trust and set them loose on the casino.

4) You can play multiple hands in positive counts and actually REDUCE variance while keeping EV constant(I think). Let me provide an example:

You are spreading from $30 to $300 in a shoe game. When you place your max bet at $300, play 3 hands of $100 each. This way if the dealer pulls a good hand like a 20 at least one of your 3 hands might push or reach a total of 21 whereas if you just bet 1 hand of $300 you would probably have lost. I realize this approach does not optimize EV, and will ultimately yield fewer rounds in positive counts. Again, the point is to reduce variance and not maximize EV.

For someone looking to maximize EV while keeping variance the same with another player at the table then play 2 hands of $210 each.

5) Ironically, look for games with lousy penetration. The TC frequency for high TCs will be lower and as a result you will place fewer max bets/hr which will help to reduce variance. I believe Fred Renzey mentions this in his book.

6) Do not play at all! :-)

For those of you with other ideas, please post your comments.

MJ