Originally Posted by
bigplayer
Non-Counters, unless they are seeing the hole card or using some other advantage play technique, will not overcome the 1/2% disadvantage via betting progressions. Bet progressions simply change the shape of the normal distributions of session results from a bell shaped one to one that is skewed such that you will have many losing sessions of small magnitude and a few large wins (positive progression) OR many winning sessions of small magnitude and a few large losses (negative progression).
I will admit, that if you only play a very small handful of hours each year, like 8-12 hours a year on one annual trip to Vegas, then I find nothing wrong with a mild positive progression...it keeps money off the table during long losing streaks but gives a casual player a chance to run a series of wins into a large session win. Hit one or two big wins and you'll be ahead of the game for several years if you can keep a level head and don't suddenly get visions of grandeur and up your stakes. Just don't deceive yourself into thinking that it somehow changes the odds of the game. Sweaty casino pit bosses confuse positive flux with advantage play all the time. Progression advocates do the same thing. If you want to use a progression to try and hit a big score vs the casino feel free, it's your money...but please don't try to surround your own personal utility with some sort of mathematical nonsense. Posters to sites like this aren't easily baffled by bull****.
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