Something I got to thinking about the other day. How precise do you have to be in your betting ramp to play at the same EV/hour? While we are spreading, it isn't the wisest thing, longevity-wise, to bet precisely with the TC, for camo/cover reasons. Let's say we spreading 1-6 on a DD, we might bet 2 units at TC=2, 4 at TC=3, and 6 at TC=>4. So basically, any time the TC is 2 or higher, we have an edge.

What kind of effects would we have if we were to bet, semi-randomly, between 2 to 6 units when the TC is 2 or higher. Of course, we'd be leaning more towards being as accurate as we can (ie: Bet 2-3 units when TC=2, bet 4-6 units when TC is 3 or higher, and not betting 6units at TC = 2, or 2 units at TC=>4).

Say you're always betting within 1 unit of your predestined ramp, but aren't betting exactly 100% in sync with your ramp. Does this have a significant impact on EV? Variancce? N0? Other factors/statistics?

I would think for DD, it wouldn't have a huge impact, because you are playing a lot in +EV situations, that as long as you're getting a rough-estimate of what you should be betting, you'll be making +EV....although I see how variance could be a stronger factor with this type of action.


On the other hand, with 6D, you aren't playing that much in +EV situations, so you more likely want to be betting the optimal units per TC. However, since you're playing with a much larger spread in 6D than you would be in DD, it seems like the differences in EV and variance would be similar to if you were using this type of strategy in a DD.

If you're backcounting 6D, then it's similar to DD, in the way that you'll be playing mostly in +EV situations, so as long as you get a bet out, regardless if it's "optimal" or not, you're still in +EV territory, although variance is also a factor.


How do you guys feel about this? Or is this not good at all?