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Thread: Advanced Strategy (ace tracking) - influence of Ace neighbors pre/post shuffle

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    Advanced Strategy (ace tracking) - influence of Ace neighbors pre/post shuffle

    Hi there,

    I've pondered upon the following ace tracking method, one that I have not seen explored previously and perhaps rightly so, yet I'd like to explore this in further depth and understand if anyone else has come across it.

    This is an ace tracking method which revolves around the following conjecture:

    Registering the neighbor of an ace in game 1 can provide edge-worthy information in game 2
    The assumption made:
    - Deck shuffles vary in their degrees of perfection. Some will achieve 100% shuffle randomness while others may fall short at lower percentages (~90%). This means clumps of the same cards persisting into the next game.
    *Defining shuffle randomness as the amount to which the order of the cards in the post-shuffled deck is different to that of the cards in the pre-shuffled deck.

    I wonder whether there is any statistical information towards the shuffle randomness value of common shuffles types? Do most casino shuffles truly reach the 100% mark? If not, how bad can they be?
    On the subject, I found this article (block scripts if you want to bypass pw) which is of interest stating that:
    Two decks should be shuffled nine times, and six decks should be shuffled 12 times, which is unheard of in the casinos.
    Expanding on the initial conjecture, the method is not really intended for human play unless you are a rainman. It is to gain an understanding of whether there is an edge to be had in the case of a sub-optimal shuffle game and whether it is worthy to factor into optimal play.

    Let me provide an example for further clarity:

    Say game 1 is played and you register the way cards are collected into the discard tray - particularly the cards that sit on top of the aces in the tray. It's important to register the card suit and value. The deck get's shuffled in preparation for the next game. Game 2 starts, rounds proceed and a point is reached within which you spot that ace neighbor as the last card dealt. Assuming a probability that the ace has stuck to it's neighbor, could there be an argument to optimize gameplay action based on the fact that the next card coming out of the shoe could be the ace?

    Let me reiterate, the above is not intended for real use due to it's complexity but for mathematical/simulation purposes.

    I'm keen to hear from anyone with experience within shuffle tracking on the thoughts laid out above.

    Thanks,
    The Patriot
    Last edited by The_Patriot; 04-24-2023 at 07:22 PM.

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