Quote Originally Posted by tater View Post
The point has nothing to do with the ability of the AP. But everything to do with the Sim results. So since you are throwing out ill 18 item #2.
Let me explain a little more as it went right over your head. The BS is just barely to stand with this hand. Index plays are deviations from basic strategy. You could use basic strategy to stand and it would cost you very little.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...dix/9/6dh17r4/

Matchup.......Stand..........Hit........double.... ..frequency
10,6v10 -0.540954 -0.534676 -1.069351 0.01342288
9,7v10 -0.536809 -0.535392 -1.070784 0.00339104

As you can see this is among the closest calls for what is basic strategy. Hitting barely beats standing.

Making the I18 is a function of 3 things, the frequency of the matchup, the gain in EV after the index is exceeded and the size of the bet you have out when making the deviation. The reason it is in the I18 is mostly because every ramped bet you make hitting is the wrong play so you make the deviation with every non-mimmum bet you make. In other words it's the bet size when making the deviation. EV gain after the index is exceeded is anemic but it is the most frequent matchup. If hitting were the deviation then the frequency would be coupled with nothing but minimum bets and an anemic gain in EV. It would probably not make the I18.

So counters basic strategy is to always stand. If you have never heard of counter's basic strategy you should look it up. 16vT doesn't make the I18 for counter's basic strategy. Counters basic strategy is listed near the end of this link explaining Card Counter's Basic Strategy:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...c-strategy.htm

As you can see always standing on 16vT is the number 1 BS play for card counters. That is because not much is gained for an AP by hitting 16vT as a strategy departure. If the strategy departure is standing then the departure becomes one of the most valuable departures.

I hope between the article on Card Counter's Basic Strategy and my explanation you are following the reasons now. BS is for flat betting. Counter's Basic Strategy takes into account the bet spreading a counter uses. Don's I18 are deviations from BS. Standing is so important to a counter's strategy that hitting is the deviation from Card Counter's Basic Strategy.