Quote Originally Posted by dogman_1234 View Post
You are also discounting a possible natural draw from the second card. This should increase variance as well for a 10 card. See Don's post above.
Now would that type of increased variance warrant a reduction in bet? Thread I started in the subscription forum was about controlling swings by betting more when variance is from increased payoffs and betting less when variance is from increasing your bet beyond the original bet. It was for a game other than BJ but the premise could translate into BJ in this case.