Hi guys, I continue to have a good problem with results far exceeding simulation EV and at a much lower variance than I think should be expected.
I would like to resolve what could be causing this. The easiest explanation is not enough play to be statistically meaningful but the charted results are starting to seem that there actually maybe something to this.
I am also interested in your opinions on when to make a move to green chips. I feel like I am in the zone and comfortable with my play now and the results have been building my confidence that this really is possible. Yet, I am still worried of a drastic change in variance for the worse that many talk about that I have yet to experience. Ideally I would like to go through the experience of a bad negative variance at a lower chip denom before moving to larger denomination. This is one of the mental blocks in my head preventing me from jumping to green.
Tables $5(max spread $40) to $15 (max spread $60)
no wagers larger than $60 at any time.
DD H17, no surr, DAS, noRSA, 3:2, pen 50-65%
session wins:22
session losses: 8
percentage wins: 73.3%
median win rate/hr: approx. $50
no losing periods of longer than 6 hours in 116 hours of total play
The problem:
my sim results say I should be averaging $25-30/hr with an ev of about +1.7% to 1.9%
Please analyze this chart:
hypercube8_28.jpg
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