Your thinking about right. The cost to me was simply a difference in amount lost on negative expectation hands versus the knowledge of an additional card, which represented additional deck penetration. Given enough hands, the differential is enough to potentially make a difference between medium type VS max bets towards shoes end. Now, I honestly don't recall if that indeed happened, however, the potential of it happening would be significant enough to make the play(s) very worthwhile.
I was essentially talking about passing 15, 16 type hands v 9 or 10 with NS, neutral and negative counts.
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