So recently I've been changing my play style and aggression based on the pit bosses / time of day / what I can get away with / whether I'm up in the first hour or down (usually when I'm down I'm more prone to full throttle ramp because of the gambler chasing image that I can get away with). I've noticed in the past couple months, a weird result is forming on my spread sheet. Now I don't have more than 250 hours logged for the past 2-3 months, but these are the results.
Expected EV: $10,800
30-1 Spread: $35.57/HR 2.5% ROR going from $10 to $300
[2 hands] at 15-1 Spread: $58.10/HR 12% ROR going from 2 x $20 to $300
Actual Results: $5,400
30-1 Spread: 175 hours - $ 5087
[2 hands] 15-1 Spread: 75 hours - $300
While I am below expected EV (that's fine), what the heck is going on with my 2 x $20 results. The reason it is 2 x $20 is because my joint requires double table min. Question: ----------> Is it worth it for me to lock up two spots and attempt to wong out at neg TC 2+ (usually at 1/2 to 3/4 end of shoe) or just play 1 spot and hope to spread to 2 whenever there's room. My joint is always filled with people so I won't always have the chance for 2 hands if I don't lock. I know it's unfair to say the EV is better because I'm jumping from 2.5% ROR to 12% ROR (sorta have to because the requirement to double table min) - is it worth it? What would you do? Just 1 spot for now and build the bankroll till you can have lower ROR for 2 hands? (I'm okay with the risk, I tolerate it when I have the chance to). Question: ---------> Also what's going on with my poor results with 2 hand spreading of 15-1. Is it more likely for me to win money with such a huge spread of 30-1? Yet CVCX states my EV is 2x better. Mathwise this whole thing is simple - variance is at work and it's such a small sample size that I don't have enough hours logged at 2 hands. Just asking for reassurance I guess.
I just recently started taking my recording spread sheet seriously, but I know 110% I'm above my actual EV when looking back at the 500 hours area. But it's all unfair because I was playing with a 15%+ ROR and sometimes sessions would probably be 20% if I was table maxing at $1K rounds. With that said - should I keep 1 spot and go to 2 whenever, or take on the variance at 2 x $20 at 15-1 spread or go safer route and go 30-1 spread at $10 to $300 and jump 2 when I can. Am I just being silly and result oriented? 2 hand isn't a matter of "safer" or "riskier" (in fact it should reach my N0? faster). Yet it feels like I cant win those sessions and the 2 hand spread of 15-1 is limiting my profits despite putting more money out. Maybe it's because I'm playing more money at negative TC-1 (because I tombstone most my sesh - sometimes I stay at neg TC-2 if it's end of shoe). Idk.
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