You have probably heard from me previously in these forums - it has been a while since I last posted. I was going through a particularly long and brutal losing streak, but knowing the math is theoretically in my favour, I have continued playing. I recovered from my previous losing streak and I believed that I would recover from this one too.

I have bad news. My losing streak has continued and relative to where I started playing, back in January, I am now nearly $2,000 in the hole. This represents a $10,500 downswing since the last all-time high achieved in early May. There has been very few positive phases unlike the last losing streak, I am just steadily losing money. I have not gone on tilt, I memorize all my indices, and, with the casino introducing a number of new dealers, penetration has actually IMPROVED. But it is just not working out.

Over the last 38 sessions, I have still won more sessions than I have lost, but the losses have been far bigger than the wins. In those 38 sessions I have not had a single five-session run which was positive. That means that my overall score at any given point in the last 33 sessions is worse than five sessions earlier.

The problem is not with the negative and neutral counts where I am doing at least as well as expected (and I wong out pretty aggressively unless playing heads-up, and none of the pit staff ever care about that). I just keep getting slaughtered at the high counts (four above neutral and above). I just keep getting dealt stiff hands and bust, and when I don't, the dealer just keeps on drawing a miraculous five to get 21, time and time again. It has got to the point where I don't look forward to the count getting high anymore. When I am playing with one or two other players, they seem to ALWAYS get the better hands and not bust on their stiff hands while I almost INVARIABLY get the worst hand and bust. And dealer 21's seem to only ever occur on my 20's and never my trash hands or busts.

As you're probably aware earlier, I play mostly Australian pontoon. I have memorized Katarina Walker's strategy and indices. It is a 8-deck shoe with a penetration of 90%+. I usually play heads-up or with one or two other players. My betting spread is as follows:

TC -5 to -4, $10; TC -3, $20; TC -2, 2x$30, TC -1, 2x$60, TC 0, 2x$80, TC 1, 2x$100, TC2 or more, 2x125 (max).

I know that playing heads-up I should play one box to increase the number of hands at a favourable count, but I am betting two boxes to reduce variation. I have tried to play one box, with disastrous consequences - I just lost every hand and my entire session bankroll after six hands.

According to my calculations the TC should be zero or better about 6.3% of all hands. Because of all the liberal rules (automatic win on 21, double on any number of cards, late surrender and early surrender after doubling), it should be obvious that under those circumstances the player has the edge. Yet over these 38 sessions, I have consistently lost 6% of the total amount wagered on those hands where the TC is zero and above. That's basically worse than double zero roulette.

I have mixed up my play with regular blackjack also. The rules here are double on 9-11 only, six decks, no surrender, DAS, split to 3 hands for a house advantage of 0.51% off the top (cf. 0.38% in Pontoon). It represents only 10-15% of my total play. The pit has never given me any heat on regular blackjack - guess what - I have net-won exactly one of my last 29 hands when the true count is +4 or better (bet of 2x$100).

I do not need to hear any condescending advice on whether the conditions are bad. The fact remains that these are the best available conditions available in my continent and region. There is no casino within a five hour plane flight that will give better conditions than this. In my country gaming is highly regulated and it would be extremely unlikely for the house to cheat. I have not checked every session but in the many dozens of times I have checked the cards laid on the table there has never been a card missing from the shoe.

I wanted to know if any of you can estimate what is the probability of such a bad run occurring given fair rules. I have not come close to losing what I was prepared to lose when I started, but this is obviously very demoralizing. Thank you all for your time and patience and I hope your sessions are profitable.