The other day, I ended up having a conversation with an ex-Card Counter/AP. I was telling him that Math supported Card Counting and the discussion went something like this. He says, that if a casino has an off the top edge of .5 and you have come up with a great count and a spread and you run a sim of a billion hands and the results show that you now have the edge on that game of .5. A positive edge according to the math. However, he says the simulator played a billion hands perfectly and came up with a .5 edge in the card counters favor. People see this result and say that the math is on their side. How many folks can play a billion hands perfectly, he asks?

You are at a table playing your min. bet of $15 with three other folks playing blacks. They have doubled their 9,2, their Ace7 and 8,3 before you and you are sitting on third base with a 12, the dealer shows a 6. Your count shows a TC of -6 and you should hit. In the simulation the computer hits. In real life, you don't want to hit because you could possibly screw up the other folks at the table who do not want you to take what they think is the dealer's bust card so you let it slide.

He rattled off situations where in real life you deal with realities (heat, difficult situations where you do not make the optimum play or bet optimally) and stated that just because the math shows you have a .5 edge does not mean you really have that edge, that the edge needs to be significantly more for anyone to be consistently successful and that it aint happening!!! When I pointed to successful AP's, his comment was that because there is a LeBron or other pro players making millions does not mean you can do it, no matter how much you practice basketball. In the case of basketball, you can see that you do not have the physical skills and he thinks far too many of us cannot see that we do not have the mental skills or fortitude. He also says that a top professional athlete's career only lasts 4-5 years with a very few lasting 10-12 years and the same is the case with being an AP. He says you can see physical skills declining but you cannot see that your mental skills decline too.

He says that the forums make him feel sad, reminds him of kids who do not want to study or work hard at conventional jobs because they think they will become the next American idol, get a contract and play music all their life when they will more likely end up strumming a guitar in some seedy empty bar for $20 a night with two customers who are not paying any attention.