NFL - Freeplay on Thursday's NFL game (2014-09-18)

[Math Demon]

Hello Everyone!

I just received a $100 NFL freeplay on one of my active accounts. _There is a 12x rollover requirement. _It expires on Thursday, Sept. 18th 11:59 PM. _It is a "use it or lose it" freeplay in which any amount not wagered is lost. _All amounts wagered (up to $100) is subject to the 12x rollover.

I am NOT very familiar with sports betting, specially freeplay. _I assume that if I win on Thursday, I will have $200 to wager on future games, and will have to wager a total of $1200 in future games before being eligible for withdrawal.

The only game available (before expiration) is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL game. _I do NOT follow those teams.
__

I would like to ask for recommendations for teams AND for betting strategies.

I will NOT blame anyone for losing recommendations since I would have randomly chosen a team or over/under anyway. _I just ask that your recommendations be based on statistical analysis, or some NFL performance criteria; and that such recommendations be intelligently elaborated and explained. _Is the "over 44½" better than the "under 44½"? Why?
__

Right now, I am leaning towards the Buccaneers $100 to win (+235). _If allowed, is this the best way to use a "freeplay"? __If not allowed, I would bet $50 on Bucs -103 (lower vig), $50 on O/U.

Currently, the lines are:
Team___________________Spread_______Moneyline_______O/U Total Points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers_____+6½_-104______+225_____ ___Ov 44½ -110
Atlanta Falcons___________-6½_ -116______-265_________Un 44½ -110

Overtime: Yes = +800, No = -1500


Addenda:

1. _A parlay may (?) also be available. _It may be allowed to parlay Bucs+6½ (-104) and Over 44½ (-110). _What is the statistical chance of winning this 2-bet parlay based on the linemaker's odds? _How much would I win if the parlay hits?

2. _How about a $100 2-bet parlay - Bucs to win (+225), Over 44½ (-110)? _ Chances and $win?

3. _How about a $100 3-bet parlay - Bucs to win (+225), Over 44½ (-110) in Overtime (+800)? _ Chances and $win?

4. _How about a 3-bet parlay - Bucs to win, Bucs+6½, and total Over 44½? _ Chances and $win?

5. _How about a 4-bet parlay - Bucs to win, Bucs+6½, and total Over 44½ in overtime? _ Shoot for the _ Chances and $win?

6. _It looks like only spread and O/U are allowed to be parlayed. _I guess I have to go with the more intelligent spread and O/U bets, whatever those are? _Or is the "Bucs to win" (at +225) better?




Thanks very much!
Math Demon

_