Hi-lo/Ten count

[Three]

Don't worry about PE in shoe games

Why not. PE just gets you more money at no cost. Only a fool would not want a raise for doing the same thing.

Insurance is the best index play one can make, so having perfect insurance is a good strategy if you can do it.

IC is another category for playing decisions. The gain from all the other playing decisions is more than the gain from IC. Insurance is just the most profitable individual playing decision. What really frustrates me is the people that look at parts of their game individually rather than the game as a whole. An increase in PE may only be worth 5% in shoe games if you bet the same in both parts of the comparison but if you make optimal bets to the same BR and RoR your bets won't be the same for the lower PE and higher PE approach. The higher PE approach will gain from higher bets and increased PE.

HILO I18 and Fab4, heads up S17, DAS, LS, 6 deck, 52 cut off, 13.7% RoR $100K BR:
Spread 143 to 2288, EV $581.37/100 rounds, N0 17357

HILO full indices, heads up, S17, DAS, LS, 6 deck, 52 cut off, 13.7% RoR, $100K BR:
Spread 153 to 2448, EV $646.42/100 rounds, N0 15592

That an 11.1% EV increase or the whole for using a higher PE with the same count not to mention an 11.1% decrease in N0 (11.3% increase in SCORE).

Now if we adjust the RoR to make the same bets at full indices we made at I18 and Fab4 it looks like this at an 11.9% RoR:
Spread 143 to 2288, EV $604.2/100 rounds, N0 15594.

That is only a 3.9% EV increase but still gets the 11.1% decrease in N0 (11.3% increase in SCORE).

So you see the person that doesn't look at the big picture only sees about a 1/3rd (35.1%) of the gain in EV that increasing PE can garner if they used the gain to the most advantage. Of course there is value to lowering RoR as the same 11.3% increase in SCORE from the lowering of your N0 indicates for either use of the increase in PE.

Just a pet peeve I have for those who are not looking at the big picture to see the actual value of what you gain. I know I am not going to turn down an 11+% raise at my job because it is too small. Hell you invest and hold a penny stock and a 10% return on your investment is huge.