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Ouchez: Will someone explain the theory
of large numbers as it applies to BJ.
Thanks,
Ouchez.
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Don Schlesinger: Re: Will someone explain the theory
> of large numbers as it applies to BJ.
The law of large numbers states that as the number of trials (hands) increases, the percentage of deviation (swings) from the mean grows smaller and smaller.
In essence, the theorem states that, as the number of trials increases, "luck" has less and less to do with the outcome that we achieve, since expectation begins to swamp standard deviation.
E.V. is a linear function, while S.D. is a square-root function. Once E.V. catches up to S.D., it begins to pull away very rapidly, leaving S.D. in the dust.
Hope this helps.
Don
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Johnny Bravo: Re: Will someone explain the theory
Don's right. This is why a lot of pros play on teams. A team is able to get into the long run faster because they are playing more hands per hour due to having more players on the team. This is especially true if you have the type of team that shares a bank, but plays at separate locations. Let's say a solo counter can play 6 hours/day. If you're on a team of 5, you can now get 30 hours/day for the team if everyone plays 6 hours/day This is also a reason why making it as a pro solo counter is extremely tough. You have to accumulate the hours. Being on a team helps to decrease variance.
JB
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Ouchez: Muchas Gracias, D.S. *NM*
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bigplayer: Re: teams
Being on a
> team helps to decrease variance.
> JB
Depends on the pay structure of the team. Our team, for example, pays based on lifetime individual performance (the DD' model) in which case members only have downside protection against losing money but upside variance remains intact. For team members with investment equity, the team model does get the investment dividend side of the equation into the longrun much more quickly. Everyone on my team has some degree of investment equity so even if they lose money while playing they will get some payment based on their investment shares...of course this money will go to payback 50% of their period loss to the other players who won money and were forced to be underpaid as a result.
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