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Honcho: ? for J.Morgan
How many units of bank would you suggest for 3cardpoker with knowledge of one card.Thanks
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98%: A Guess
Using the figures given in 'Beyond Counting' for the edge (3.4929%) and the standard deviation (1.741724) in the 'one card three card' scenario, I calculate that a bankroll of 196 units is needed to give you almost no risk of ruin. If you can stomach some risk, you could shave off about 20 units and go at it with a 175 unit bankroll. This is assuming you're getting a perfect read every time. For a less-than-perfect read or a less frequent read, you'd need more.
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J Morgan: A few RoR numbers
The recommendation by 98% is pretty accurate. Here are some additional numbers.
Two cases:
1. One card clean. Bankroll sizes, with risk of ruin before doubling bankroll in parentheses, along with average number of hands to play before ruin/double: 95 (10.05%, 2191.1), 128 (4.97%, 3323.5), 150 (3.07%, 4057.9), 182 (1.50%, 5086.0), 200 (0.99%, 5647.2).
2. You cannot distinguish between J, Q, and K: 95 (17.65%, 2568.9), 135 (10.10%, 4495.8), 182 (4.99%, 6829.0), 240 (2.02%, 9596.3), 285 (0.99%, 11638.2).
This is a dangerous game. Five big pitfalls: 1. Deluding yourself into thinking the information is better than it is. 1a. Putting too much money down on a relief dealer. 2. Too much money on the Pair Plus, now a horrible bet in Vegas with the prevalent 1/3/6/30/40 payout schedule (-7.2760%). 3. Overtipping. 4. Bad guessing on Paints, instead of playing QJ5.
I hope that helps. Let me know if you find any errors in these numbers. They are part of a larger table that will appear in the next edition of Beyond Counting.
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