Most free free plays (but not all) are for even money bets only. So if you could use it on 3CP you probably would not get paid for the ante bonus if you catch a big hand. So why not use it for a different carney game such as the ante bet for Caribbean Stud? If you used it this way and played the dollar bonus then it is only costing you one white chip to see a five card hand with the potential for a huge payout. If you like your hand then make the "Raise Bet" if not toss it. There are other carney games that would approximately fit this criteria so look at all the options. 3CP is not a bad play but I think there might be better ones out there.
"I think, therfore I can't play blackjack."
Arnold Snyder, Blackbelt in Blackjack pg. 229 (2005)
I don't see why the answer has to be so complicated. All this is, is a long run win of whatever the match play value/free bet as long as its used properly in a game with +EV. Even if you were playing a game with a 1% house edge you would only be losing 1% of overall bet in the long run.
Same for free slot play. You would play video poker because it has the best return in hopes you will get that slot play in cash.
I am racking my brain trying to understand the math behind this, but it escapes me. How do we get the significantly over 50% value on the promo chip?
I know the strategy for playing the chip, I just don't understand how the math works. It seems to me we are playing the chip on a significantly -EV bet, by using it for the "raise" bet on crappy hands. Am I missing something here? It doesn't help that I have little to no experience playing the aforementioned game....
You have 2 options in TCP - call or fold. When you fold, you lose your ante bet (duh). But sometimes you'll call because you don't want to just throw away that ante bet.
For instance, say you're playing regular Texas Holden (against other players). There's $1,000 in the pot. You figure out that your hand is most likely going to lose (10% chance to win), and the other player raises $5. Are you going to fold and have zero chance of winning? Or are you going to bet $5 to have a 10% chance of winning $1,000? Surely, you'd bet $5. Of course that $5 bet is at a disadvantage, but it let's you stay in the game for a chance to win.
In the same way, yet much less dramatic, you call(raise) in 3CP because it's better than just throwing away your ante.
When using a promo chip, I believe you raise(call) with actual $ if you have K,9,7 or better. If your hand is worse than K,9,7 you use a promo chip. You never fold if you have the ability to use a promo chip.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Are you talking about TCP or the chip in general? If it's even money only and loses on a win, I believe one of the strongest plays for it, if I read JG's chart correctly, is TCP. If it stays up after a win or a push, I think you're looking for a lower HE game, since the chip's value (EV) would be worth just about its face value (err...a $25 promo chip, in this case, is worth almost $25).
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
$100 FR chip relinquished on a tie Bet on play if 532-K87 Bet money if hand is stronger returns $51.43
On Play 1/3/4 bet on 532-K94 bet money on K95+ returns $50.50
FS (saved on tie) Play on 532-K96 bet money on K97+ returns $73.15
Now for non-cashable chips saved until lost:
Play Q32+ returns $85.58 (almost the worst option in the chart)
Which seems counterintuitive, since the promo chip you play on the "play" bet actually has ZERO chance of winning. For any hand J-high or lower, you have right around a 70% chance of the dealer qualifying (automatic loss) or about a 30% chance of either a push or a loss (depending on whether the chip is relinquished on ties.
Here's how I understand it. In the normal play of the game (no promo chips), there are two options; "raise" and fold. The fold option carries an EV of -1 unit, and the correct strategy is to play any hand that carries an EV greater than -1. The cutoff is Q64 if I'm not mistaken. And, mathematically, the EV of any hand J-high or lower is exactly the same....a loss when the dealer qualifies, and a push/win when the dealer does not. And, significantly, that EV is only slightly lower than -1 unit. (Dealer DNQ 30% of the time....if the dealer DNQ 33.3% of the time, the EV of raising a low hand would be exactly -1 unit.)
So what the promo chip does, since it doesn't carry the actual value of a real chip, is it allows you to go ahead and play those low hands, since you don't have to risk "real" money to acquire a 30% chance at a +1 unit instead of a guaranteed -1 from a fold. In other words, a hand like J73 is still -EV, but not nearly as negative as -1.
What confuses me is how the EV is actually calculated. Now, 3CP is a -EV game without promo chips. So is all of the EV of "good" hands calculated into the value of a promo chip? In other words, I would not sit down and play a hand if I didn't have the promo chip....the promo chip "allows" me the chance to win +2 units against the dealer even when it just sits in my pocket....I assume the EV of those hands is calculated into the EV of the chip, but I'm not sure. Secondly, if my math is right, it will work out so that right around half of the time I make an ante bet (K9 or better), I will get a good enough hand to raise with cash. So, does the EV of the promo chip include the possibility of multiple cash plays up UNTIL I get the chance to play the chip correctly? Or is it EV of ~73% of the chip that "resets" after a cash play that excludes the chip? I'm actually not even sure that this question even makes sense, in terms of viewing EV properly.
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