your favorite uncle is an artist and tells you he knows you count cards, believes that is a way to gain an advantage in the casino, and that he believes if he played a progression system long enough he would be ever more likely to lose, ever-closer, to the calculated disadvantage of the game he chooses. he says his artist-nature is too math-challenged and sensitive to ever count but he plans to play anyway.
he says the best rules he can find have a .5% disadvantage and he will take 2500$ and play no more than 1000 hands on any given day, perfect basic strategy. he read he would lose less flat betting than varying his bet so he plans to flat bet 25$ until it might happen he loses so many flat bets he is not very practically likely to recover back to zero, at which time he plans to increase to 50$, hoping his luck will change and giving him some prospect of getting back to zero. he knows this may instead simply accelerate his appointment with ruin so he pledges NOT to bet 50$ any more bets lost than the 25$ so he figures his bankroll is 66 units of 37.50 each. he read on a website he will lose all his money about one in ten times this way.
he knows you are better at math than he is so he asks your opinion of how many flat bets down would he be when he "is not very practically likely to recover back to zero by continuing flat betting?" ten?, twenty? some other number?
you are tempted to educate him on advantage play but he IS, truly, a gentle soul and as math-clueless as he says and you know he can afford the losses and enjoys playing so you decide to use your math talent and answer his question.
how many units down do you tell him he will be when it will be quite UNLIKELY he is going to recover to zero by flat betting?
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