Jason: BJ Math question

[Jason]

I have what must seem like an odd BJ math question.

If I have an 8 deck shoe, and I can tell with very high accuracy the count of half-deck (26 card) sections in the shoe, what kind of advantage would this give me?

To rephrase, because I know this is an odd type of request, if I knew the first 26 cards of the shoe were +3, the second 26 cards were -1, the third 26 cards were +2 etc, how would I calculate the advantage of this situation?

Thanks for any help you might be able to provide.

[Norm Wattenberger]

There is no "math" answer. It could be simmed. But this would require knowing exactly would you intended to do with the information. How you know may also matter.

> I have what must seem like an odd BJ math question.

> If I have an 8 deck shoe, and I can tell with very
> high accuracy the count of half-deck (26 card)
> sections in the shoe, what kind of advantage would
> this give me?

> To rephrase, because I know this is an odd type of
> request, if I knew the first 26 cards of the shoe were
> +3, the second 26 cards were -1, the third 26 cards
> were +2 etc, how would I calculate the advantage of
> this situation?

> Thanks for any help you might be able to provide.

[Brett Harris]

Oh Norm - you can do better than that ;-)

The answer is that you could play (assuming a balanced count here) as if you knew the true count. The true count is a measure of 'density' of high or low cards. Assuming Hi-Lo, if the first 26 cards were +3, there must be an excess of low cards, - this would be equivalent to knowing the true count is -6.

Or am I missing something?

Brett,

[Norm Wattenberger]

Not quite that simple for any but the first hand.

- What is a "high-degree" of accuracy? This is extremely important because if you assume half-deck pseudo-decks, the TC will fluctuate wildly.
- Does that accuracy relate to the exact count, the exact borders, or both?
- How many players at the table? This is particularly important because of the boundary conditions. Many hands will cross boundaries. If the hand starts in one segment but ends in another segment, all kinds of oddities come into play. For example, your first cards come from one count and the last card(s), maybe a DD card, come from another count. Or your cards come from one count and the dealer hits come from another count.
- If the knowledge is extremely reliable, you will be dealing half-deck games down to the last card. This brings into play all manner of options.

I'd want to know more about the source of the info before trying to calculate an advantage.

> Oh Norm - you can do better than that ;-)

> The answer is that you could play (assuming a balanced
> count here) as if you knew the true count. The true
> count is a measure of 'density' of high or low cards.
> Assuming Hi-Lo, if the first 26 cards were +3, there
> must be an excess of low cards, - this would be
> equivalent to knowing the true count is -6.

> Or am I missing something?

> Brett,

[Norm Wattenberger]

Ah, I see from another forum you are talking about ST. In that case, the answer is quite complex. This can be simmed, but obviously the shuffle must be known. And the degrees of accuracy. Also, how you intend to bet: NRS or Cookbook. Also how often you get the cut card, and how you intend to cut.

[Zenfighter]

Also, how you intend to bet:
NRS or Cookbook.

Snyder's betting recommendations, aren't exactly
the reasons why his book is despite, still worth a read.

Sincerely,

Zf

[Norm Wattenberger]

[Jason]

You guys seem interested in how the info comes about, and I am a little anxious about sharing on a public board, but I guess with no location its pretty safe.

At my local I know what the standard shuffle procedure is, so I have mapped out how that shuffle plays out if done perfectly. I have also noticed that there are a couple of older dealers who shuffle very close to the proper procedure. One of them is particularly fastidious and seems to take a lot of pride in it, getting upset if he has any clumping in his riffles for instance. So, while not perfect, two dealers in particular get pretty close.

> Not quite that simple for any but the first hand.

> - What is a "high-degree" of accuracy? This
> is extremely important because if you assume half-deck
> pseudo-decks, the TC will fluctuate wildly.
> - Does that accuracy relate to the exact count, the
> exact borders, or both?
> - How many players at the table? This is particularly
> important because of the boundary conditions. Many
> hands will cross boundaries. If the hand starts in one
> segment but ends in another segment, all kinds of
> oddities come into play. For example, your first cards
> come from one count and the last card(s), maybe a DD
> card, come from another count. Or your cards come from
> one count and the dealer hits come from another count.
> - If the knowledge is extremely reliable, you will be
> dealing half-deck games down to the last card. This
> brings into play all manner of options.

> I'd want to know more about the source of the info
> before trying to calculate an advantage.

[Norm Wattenberger]

The degree to which the riffle is precise is not very important. It is the grabs that are more important. I have some comments at www.blackjackincolor.com/Shuffletracking1.htm.


Blackjack in Color

[Jason]

> The degree to which the riffle is precise is not very
> important. It is the grabs that are more important. I
> have some comments at
> www.blackjackincolor.com/Shuffletracking1.htm .

> Blackjack in Color

His grabs are very good to my eye, he often pulls off a section, then puts it back and does it again if he thinks he is off, he seems a little obsessive-compulsive about it actually, which is why I thought it might be exploitable.

Thankyou very much for the link also.

[Ikipiros]

I have always assumed that cutting good cards in was way better than cutting bad cards out.
The sim on your website shows that cutting good cards in is better but not by a huge amount.

I see that some of the main variables of the sim are:
- 39 cards slugs
- only one track zone:bottom 39 cards

Would the results be quite different (ie cutting good cards in way better than cutting bad cards out) if:
- 26 cards slugs
- Tracking Best zone in good cards.

All other variables the same

[Norm Wattenberger]

My sims have indicated that cutting bad cards out is generally as good, except in very small PZs. Small PZs are a very different matter and are very difficult to deal with. I am not the only person that has come to this conclusion, although this hasn't been stated publicly. Frankly, I don't suggest even using small PZs.