Mike H: Single Deck Cut

[Mike H]

Playing a single deck game and you glimpse the bottom card before making the cut... cut a high card or ace so that it comes out during the course of play and a low card so that it is not played or not penetrated. I use an unbalanced level 2 count and am wondering if I should adjust my IRC when performing this maneuver. Obviously you could count the low card since it is effectively removed from the pack- just as you would count a burn card if it was seen?

Could you also count a high card that you know will be played as a plus value until it is played. When that card is played you would then have to subtract it twice since you counted it backwards while making the cut. For example, if I know the queen of spades is going to be played I would add +2 to my IRC. When the queen of spades is played I then subtract 4 since normally it is counted as -2. Does this make sense? You would have to make sure to remember which high card to look out for because forgetting to count it twice would throw your count off. Is this a good idea if I'm certain I can remember which card to count twice?

By the way, if another player cuts a high card out of play or cuts a low card into play you could adjust the IRC down accordingly, etc?

The only reason I'm concerned with this is because much of my advantage comes from good single deck rules with DAS and LS and the count I use has a high playing efficiency.

If I think about it (which usually gets me into trouble) I imagine the 26 cards or so that are going to be dealt sitting in the dealers hand. Then imagine putting the queen of spades into the middle of those cards. I realize 1 face card out of 26 is no big deal. On the other hand, it is essentially like cutting the deck in half and taking a face card out of one half and putting it into the one you're going to be dealing from.

Thanks for any advice.

[AutomaticMonkey]

> Playing a single deck game and you glimpse the bottom
> card before making the cut... cut a high card or ace
> so that it comes out during the course of play and a
> low card so that it is not played or not penetrated. I
> use an unbalanced level 2 count and am wondering if I
> should adjust my IRC when performing this maneuver.
> Obviously you could count the low card since it is
> effectively removed from the pack- just as you would
> count a burn card if it was seen?

> Could you also count a high card that you know will be
> played as a plus value until it is played. When that
> card is played you would then have to subtract it
> twice since you counted it backwards while making the
> cut. For example, if I know the queen of spades is
> going to be played I would add +2 to my IRC. When the
> queen of spades is played I then subtract 4 since
> normally it is counted as -2. Does this make sense?
> You would have to make sure to remember which high
> card to look out for because forgetting to count it
> twice would throw your count off. Is this a good idea
> if I'm certain I can remember which card to count
> twice?

> By the way, if another player cuts a high card out of
> play or cuts a low card into play you could adjust the
> IRC down accordingly, etc?

> The only reason I'm concerned with this is because
> much of my advantage comes from good single deck rules
> with DAS and LS and the count I use has a high playing
> efficiency.

> If I think about it (which usually gets me into
> trouble) I imagine the 26 cards or so that are going
> to be dealt sitting in the dealers hand. Then imagine
> putting the queen of spades into the middle of those
> cards. I realize 1 face card out of 26 is no big deal.
> On the other hand, it is essentially like cutting the
> deck in half and taking a face card out of one half
> and putting it into the one you're going to be dealing
> from.

> Thanks for any advice.

Card values are based on the effect of removal, so knowing that a card has definitely been removed from the deck should be counted because it represents a deviation from the normal composition of a deck. But knowing that a card is still in the deck doesn't mean the same thing. If you saw them put an extra QS in the deck that would be different.

[Mike H]

> Card values are based on the effect of removal, so
> knowing that a card has definitely been removed from
> the deck should be counted because it represents a
> deviation from the normal composition of a deck. But
> knowing that a card is still in the deck doesn't mean
> the same thing. If you saw them put an extra QS in the
> deck that would be different.

Thanks- I should know better than to out think myself :-)

[Wantabe]

> Card values are based on the effect of removal, so
> knowing that a card has definitely been removed from
> the deck should be counted because it represents a
> deviation from the normal composition of a deck. But
> knowing that a card is still in the deck doesn't mean
> the same thing. If you saw them put an extra QS in the
> deck that would be different.

I agree that knowing that a card is still in the deck is different from the usuall counting but is there any way to take advantage of this knowledge?

[kc]

> Playing a single deck game and you glimpse the bottom
> card before making the cut... cut a high card or ace
> so that it comes out during the course of play and a
> low card so that it is not played or not penetrated. I
> use an unbalanced level 2 count and am wondering if I
> should adjust my IRC when performing this maneuver.
> Obviously you could count the low card since it is
> effectively removed from the pack- just as you would
> count a burn card if it was seen?

> Could you also count a high card that you know will be
> played as a plus value until it is played. When that
> card is played you would then have to subtract it
> twice since you counted it backwards while making the
> cut. For example, if I know the queen of spades is
> going to be played I would add +2 to my IRC. When the
> queen of spades is played I then subtract 4 since
> normally it is counted as -2. Does this make sense?
> You would have to make sure to remember which high
> card to look out for because forgetting to count it
> twice would throw your count off. Is this a good idea
> if I'm certain I can remember which card to count
> twice?

> By the way, if another player cuts a high card out of
> play or cuts a low card into play you could adjust the
> IRC down accordingly, etc?

> The only reason I'm concerned with this is because
> much of my advantage comes from good single deck rules
> with DAS and LS and the count I use has a high playing
> efficiency.

> If I think about it (which usually gets me into
> trouble) I imagine the 26 cards or so that are going
> to be dealt sitting in the dealers hand. Then imagine
> putting the queen of spades into the middle of those
> cards. I realize 1 face card out of 26 is no big deal.
> On the other hand, it is essentially like cutting the
> deck in half and taking a face card out of one half
> and putting it into the one you're going to be dealing
> from.

> Thanks for any advice.

I think the problem can be solved using conditional probabilities. For example to compute the ev given a ten was not removed, subtract the ev given a ten was removed multiplied by the probability of drawing a ten from the full deck ev and divide the total by the probability of not drawing a ten.

Single deck, s17, doa, no resplit, 1 card to split aces
Total dependent basic strategy
Full deck ev (using td bs): -.0147%
1 ten removed ev (using td bs): -.5271%
p10 = probability of drawing a ten = 16/52

ev(no ten removed) = (ev(full) - p10 * ev(ten removed)) / (1 - p10)
ev(no ten removed) = (-.0147 - 16/52 * (-.5271)) / (1 - 16/52)
ev(no ten removed) = ~+.2131%

The problem could also be solved by summing the eor evs of non-tens and dividing by 9 since it is given that a ten isn't removed and all of the other ranks have an equal weight but using conditional probabilities is simpler.

Hope this is of some help.

[Mike H]

> I think the problem can be solved using conditional
> probabilities. For example to compute the ev given a
> ten was not removed, subtract the ev given a ten was
> removed multiplied by the probability of drawing a ten
> from the full deck ev and divide the total by the
> probability of not drawing a ten.

> Single deck, s17, doa, no resplit, 1 card to split
> aces
> Total dependent basic strategy
> Full deck ev (using td bs): -.0147%
> 1 ten removed ev (using td bs): -.5271%
> p10 = probability of drawing a ten = 16/52

> ev(no ten removed) = (ev(full) - p10 * ev(ten
> removed)) / (1 - p10)
> ev(no ten removed) = (-.0147 - 16/52 * (-.5271)) / (1
> - 16/52)
> ev(no ten removed) = ~+.2131%

> The problem could also be solved by summing the eor
> evs of non-tens and dividing by 9 since it is given
> that a ten isn't removed and all of the other ranks
> have an equal weight but using conditional
> probabilities is simpler.

> Hope this is of some help.

Thank-you for the excellent response but the problem is, as AutomaticMonkey pointed out, there is no information about any card being removed from the pack. Your analysis seems more applicable to the case where you cut a small card out of play.

Assuming the pack is perfectly distributed before cutting the Queen of Spades into play, you could almost figure on an extra face card in the top half of the deck. However, cutting a well distributed pack leaves it, well distributed.

Another way to think about it might be to imagine the dealer is going to show you 1 card out of the top half of the deck. You've got a 5/13 chance it's a face card or an ace. So if he did show you a face or an ace could you use that information? Theoretically possible but practically useless. What you should try to do is place the cut card so that the ten or ace lands in your hand. This might be dangerous if you're at third base. In that case just try to avoid that card going to the dealer.

[kc]

> Thank-you for the excellent response but the problem
> is, as AutomaticMonkey pointed out, there is no
> information about any card being removed from the
> pack. Your analysis seems more applicable to the case
> where you cut a small card out of play.

> Assuming the pack is perfectly distributed before
> cutting the Queen of Spades into play, you could
> almost figure on an extra face card in the top half of
> the deck. However, cutting a well distributed pack
> leaves it, well distributed.

> Another way to think about it might be to imagine the
> dealer is going to show you 1 card out of the top half
> of the deck. You've got a 5/13 chance it's a face card
> or an ace. So if he did show you a face or an ace
> could you use that information? Theoretically possible
> but practically useless. What you should try to do is
> place the cut card so that the ten or ace lands in
> your hand. This might be dangerous if you're at third
> base. In that case just try to avoid that card going
> to the dealer.

Another step is needed.

10 on bottom so cut 10 into play
10 will be replaced by:
A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 each 4/51 of the time: 10 is in play (+.2131%)
10 will be replaced by another 10 15/51 of the time: 10 is out of play (-.5271%)

36/51 * (+.2131%) + 15/51 * (-.5271%) = -.0046%

Cutting a 10 into play changes house advantage from -.0147% to -.0046% using full deck total dependent basic strategy.

Another variable might be the depth to which the bottom 10 is cut but the above assumes it is just known that the cut into play 10 will randomly appear somewhwere other than the bottom of the deck.

kc

[Mike H]

[Praying Mantis]

The only reason I'm concerned with this is because much of my advantage comes from good single deck rules with DAS and LS and the count I use has a high playing efficiency.

I know this is not the answer to your question but I was thinking "outside the box"...maybe you should, as well.

Suppose this SD game has horrible pen, then say you and your confederates tie up the table. You get one round per shuffle...think about the possibilities of not even counting...period! Even with 2 rounds to a shuffle on a set, full table, is it really WORTH counting with this much information? You don't have to cut the small card out of play...how about cutting it to the dealer?

Regards,
PM

[Mike H]

> You don't have to cut the small card out of play...
> how about cutting it to the dealer?

That's a good idea... obviously you wouldn't want to sit at first or third base.