Jackie Chiles: NNFP ? Katarina Walker

[Jackie Chiles]

Bettie:

"NNFP" means "not necessarily for posting." It kind of bothers me to see people posting messages concerning Spanish 21. I'm conflicted. On the one hand, it's self-centered and childish to want to keep something good from the public, but on the other hand publicity might kill this thing before it even gets off the ground.

Anyway, I bought Katarina Walker's book sight unseen mainly because Don S. wrote the forward. That's a high recommendation to me. I e-mailed her publisher and got a bounce back. I really would like to ask her a simple, succinct question. Perhaps you, Don, or Norm know the answer.

On page XV of the introduction Katarina makes the common sense point that an ace dealt to you as one of your first two cards is even more valuable in Spanish 21 than in "regular" blackjack. On page 54 of the text she mentions that she might be doing work on a count other than Hi-Lo, a count that tracks aces and does not assign them a "0" tag. For better or worse, I have always used the Hi-Opt I with a side count of aces. I would LOVE to see work done for this counting system. Does anybody at advantageplayer.com know if Katarina is involved in this study? Is there a way to contact her? Thanks.

Jackie Chiles
Somewhere in the Arizona desert

[Don Schlesinger]

I've forwarded your letter to Kat, and I hope to have an answer here for you shortly.

I don't think the count she is working on for SP21 involves Hi-Opt, though.

Don

[AutomaticMonkey]

>...

> On page XV of the introduction Katarina makes the
> common sense point that an ace dealt to you as one of
> your first two cards is even more valuable in Spanish
> 21 than in "regular" blackjack. On page 54
> of the text she mentions that she might be doing work
> on a count other than Hi-Lo, a count that tracks aces
> and does not assign them a "0" tag. For
> better or worse, I have always used the Hi-Opt I with
> a side count of aces. I would LOVE to see work done
> for this counting system. Does anybody at
> advantageplayer.com know if Katarina is involved in
> this study? Is there a way to contact her? Thanks.

> Jackie Chiles
> Somewhere in the Arizona desert

I've done exactly the kind of work you speak of. Turns out an ace-neutral count doesn't help you all that much in SP21. Part of the reason is that in BJ you get a lot of the benefit from ace-neutral from improved insurance correlation, and insurance is a non-issue in SP21. And your most powerful index plays are the surrender plays, where drawing an ace doesn't bust you like a 10 does but it leaves you with a 16 or 17 which isn't a wonderful alternative, so you can't think of it as a desirable card on those hands.

I use a slight variation on Kat's count that nets me a few percent more, and I could use an ace-neutral count or a count that half-ranks the 8's and 9's and that would net me a few more percent, but it really isn't worth it. A person could be using the level 1 count at the table during all the time I spend tweaking sims, and it would be a long time before I catch up to him using the multilevel stuff at the casino. I'm not trying to discourage you from trying these things, just that it's going to have the same magnitude of benefit that switching from High-Low to higher order counts does on any 8D game.

[Jackie Chiles]

[Jackie Chiles]

Automatic Monkey Person:

Thanks for the information. The understanding I get is that you believe ace neutral counts aren't all that big a deal for SP21, right? So do you think my best course of action would be to just stick with what Katarina has published? I would have to learn a new set of index numbers which is no big deal really, but learning a new way of counting after all these years might be a pain. I'm willing to do what it takes, but I don't want to waste time. Your guidance would be a help. Thanks.

Jackie Chiles

[AutomaticMonkey]

> Automatic Monkey Person:

> Thanks for the information. The understanding I get is
> that you believe ace neutral counts aren't all that
> big a deal for SP21, right? So do you think my best
> course of action would be to just stick with what
> Katarina has published? I would have to learn a new
> set of index numbers which is no big deal really, but
> learning a new way of counting after all these years
> might be a pain. I'm willing to do what it takes, but
> I don't want to waste time. Your guidance would be a
> help. Thanks.

> Jackie Chiles

Sure, it's about as good as anything unless you are willing to switch to multilevel for a few percent more. Like switching to RPC from High-Low in blackjack; sure a few of us here use RPC but if you're proficient in High-Low there isn't a really compelling reason to do it.

You're going to have to learn new indices and spreads no matter what you do- there is absolutely no way you can refit a blackjack index and spread system to Spanish 21, any more than you can use BJ basic strategy on the game.

[Katarina Walker]

Dear Jackie,
The only more advanced work I've done so far is to work out the optimal 2-level counts for the various types of Spanish 21, in terms of betting efficiency (the EORs vary significantly between rule sets). I have yet to generate indices for them.
I do intend to publish an advanced book on Spanish 21 with information on 2-level counts and counts that include Ace side counts, but I have not started work on the material yet because I'm full-time in college this year. Sorry.
Cheers,
Katarina

[Jackie Chiles]

AM:

Okay. That pretty much confirms my rather amateurish thinking. One always hopes that some retrofitting scheme can work - think of the time saved! - but it's wishful thinking on my part apparently. As I said, learning new index numbers would be fairly easy for me, but learning a new count and a new betting system on top of what I already use will be a formidable task. But I'll do it.

Thanks AM

Jackie Chiles

[Jackie Chiles]

Katarina:

Thanks so much. Now I know what's going on.

Your book really is a marvel. Book of the Year, ahead of Harrington's two-volume, 800 page monster on Texas Hold 'Em no limit cash games .... and that's saying something.

(Do you really think it's vital for people playing seriously in Las Vegas to look like they have attained some level of wealth? It seems that half the black and purple chip bettors I see look they stopped off at the table on their way to the swimming pool. Standards of public comportment and dress aren't what they once were in the U.S.A.)

Good luck in school. And don't lord it over your teachers just because you are brighter than they are!

Jackie Chiles