I am screwed

[Goatlife]

so basically this weekend was the weekend from hell. I Have put in 100 hrs of total live play for the month and was up about 17 grand for the month. Then this weekend i played for 10 hours and lost 14 grand. I also got backed off again and flired all around town and they know my real name even though i didn't give it. I think i am screwed. My bankroll was before this weekend was about 42 grand now it is 28 grand. If i want to continue to play i need to resize and play two hand at the 25 dollar talbes. I don't want to accept the higher ror at the 50 dollar games because is would be well over 10 percent. Like i stated before I have a career and I can't really travel around the country to play because my career ties me down. Any reason why i am getting backed off of everyplace i play eventually. Do i just suck that much. I am playing like 20 a week and working full time so i am very tired and drained. Being flired after this last loss was devestating cause it was like i coulnd't get my money back. I just packed up and went home and i think i am going to decide to give it a break for like a year until i can build up my bankroll enough to employ camoflouge techniqes.

Thanks for everyone's help and support

[Gamblor]

Well losing 14 K in 10 hrs might be related to your problem of getting backed off.

[simple man]

My first rule has always been, basically, don't play angry or "on tilt", and if it doesn't feel right, consider not playing, or play until you feel better about it or go on tilt, in which case see first part of rule - there will always be another hand of blackjack another time.

I would wager that every professional can agree upon the necessity of properly seperating emotions from play. I can't in good conscience sit here and tell you that your described fatigue and obvious heart-broken response to your recent happening are completely unrelated to how things went down. Everything is everything, and modern black, especially at such a level, allows very little margin for anything.

I'd like you to know that you are appreciated and respected as a player, and I wish you the best, including an insightful and fruitful return to the game. Take care.

[sagefr0g]

smallcap, just curious what your ev/hand is? oh and what is the standard deviation/hand?
did i figure this right, there for 100hrs you averaged making $1.70/hand and the last 10/hrs you averaged {[(edit) -$14/hand](per ttree correction)} ? you getting circa 100hands/hr?
whatever, i know that had to hurt, and i wouldn't doubt they were just laying in wait for a big loss to then give you the boot.
but still up three grand for a month, not so bad, imho. circa $0.27/hand sorta thing? assuming you get 100hands/hr?
far as why you are getting backed off, i'd go with what Gamblor is saying, i mean think about it, anytime you are betting more than $100/hand, guess what? you have a whole lot of people, civilian players, the pit and surveillance included's attention. most of those folks watching aren't making $1,400/hr which is what it looks like you averaged betting, about $23/minute, heck most of them are probably lucky to make $23/hour, lol.
hey what?, they backed you off cause they can't mentally stand the fluctuation your play represents to them, maybe huh? and lol, crap they are a casino, happens all the time to them, in the long run on average, but here you are giving it to them in really concentrated doses, lol. that sorta thing is hard for AP's to deal with (ie. fluctuation of that magnitude), well it likely a'int easy for some pit crew either who possibly don't even really understand the math of what's happening. but somebody in that joint probably does have an understanding of the math and AP play. with all that attention, that guy is gonna get you.
as an AP, you can recognize it in a new york minute, lol. hey, just recently, i've got some guy in my territory, who is blatant as all get out, basically trashing my play. guess what?, before he even knew it i was all over him, blew him out of the water, lol. he's out in the open, i'm blending in with the environment. hey, this stuff requires craftiness, surreptitiousness and a realization of just how easily your gig is recognized. somebody is always watching.

fluctuation is a beatch though, even pro's have problems dealing with it emotionally, as evidenced by the Axelrod chat.http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sho...=7277#post7277
i dunno if that level of fluctuation that you experienced bothered you a lot or not, i know it would bother the hell out of me.
you can't make fluctuation go away, but you can tame it down a bit, sorta thing.
hey, you kelly bet, right?, or some fraction of it? no? and what?, if you bet full kelly you make optimal money, no? so but all right, does anyone bet full kelly?, no, cause the roller coaster ride of fluctuation is to damm much. so we bet a fraction of kelly, sorta thing, basically that lowers the emotional effect of fluctuation with respect to our risk tolerance. so what that means, is dealing with fluctuation isn't optimal, it's not gonna make it go away, but it can help us sleep at night, sorta thing, lol. Pro's do that, bet a fraction of kelly, the rationalization?, oh full kelly is too much risk, lol. it's too hard to sleep at night is what it is, lmao. too hard to deal with.
did you see that Wallenda guy on the tight rope going across Niagara Falls? part of what he does when on the rope, is slows up his pace and then gradually increases his pace, over and over again, till he gets to the other side. the reason he does that is to lower the bouncing of that rope, lol. think lessen the effect of fluctuation.
it creates less of a spectacle for the crowd but at least he can deal with it, lol.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

100 hrs of total live play for the month will get you barred in a hurry IF you are playing in very few casinos !

The casinos will never let you "camp out" if you are betting over the level of green chips. You obviously bet way above.

Even if they determine that your counting is poor enough to give you a break-even game, they will 86 you !

Their thinking is that their BJ tables are NOT your office and you are taking a seat from a probable loser

You couldn't figure this out for yourself ? Ask yourself … Just how narcissistic am I ?

[KJ]

Financially, it doesn't sound like a disaster. Like froggy said, you are up 3 grand for the month. For most players, especially part-time players that's not a bad month.

Not to kick dirt on you when you are down, but the bigger issue is that you are ill prepared for this venture. There is a lot more to successful blackjack play than learning to count cards. Unless you have a wide rotation of locations to play and most people don't, you must learn what the tolerance levels are for each casino and even different times, busier shifts within that casino. The second big concept that you obviously haven't mastered is losing. You must be able to deal with losing. It will happen and at times, it will happen in a big way. Admittedly, this is a difficult lesson to learn. I believe the hardest concept. As a player who is in my ninth year of supporting myself from blackjack play, I still struggle with this. Last year I had a 5 week period in which I lost 30 grand as well as a six month period in which I was down 5 figures. At times, I thought about throwing in the towel and heading in a different direction. These periods were part of a year that while a down year for me, from previous years, was still a successful year. So you have to learn to deal short-term losses and the fluctuation that is involved with this game.

I believe these two lessons which you skipped are best learned at a low limit play as you progress up the stakes ladder. It seems like a natural progression to me. To begin high stakes play without learning these concepts, will be a disaster, more than you are experiencing now.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I concur with KJ.

Good advice.

[zerg]

so basically this weekend was the weekend from hell.

I feel for you. I'll tell you it both is and isn't as bad as it seems. Losing good games that are close to you is rough, but there are other games. Losing a third of your bankroll and resizing really sucks, but it WILL happen if you play a high risk/reward game for your bankroll. As others have said, at least you are still up on the month! And you have other income? You will be fine. In my 18ish months of play I have had about 3 "total disasters" that I didn't think I would recover from. Each time I learned from it and came back a better player. As others have said the main lesson here is not to overplay a location/area. If your career allows, take a 3 day weekend trip once a month. From what I have read about your play, Id recommend a large market destination.

[Ouchez]

Small,

My take,,,"the greed factor". You have, what I take to be, a very fine career and you had no need to push any envelope to the extent of huge losses or huge wins with the ever present risk of Back-off's and flyers and tresspass and data base entries, that will for sure end your playing in it's entirety,,, I think you may have already succeeded in doing that .

What yourself, and all players need to do today, with the far smarter casino surveillance personnel, and with easily accessed computer data-bases, is to be happy with continued slow and steady milking of the casino in a mediumish $$$ way, to avoid destruction of your ability to exercise what I hope is a very high "SKILLZ SET".

Today, unless you desire to burn yourself out quickly, you need a new approach, one that is out of the box and under the radar, and one that is never written about on any internet site, and very possibly shared with no other person. The public internet has been great for us as a learning tool, but just as great for the casino to also quickly learn all about us,, and all that entails, in a way that is as simple as clicking on our very public BJ sites. (Then there are those who write books and expose everything, books that end up on the shelf of the eye surveillance rooms and casino table game managers desks).

My Best,

Ouchez

[blackjackomaha]

smallcapgrowth,

I'm sorry to hear about what happened. You should be happy you still edged out a profit at the local games. Yes, this unfortunately means your future play will mainly be at out-of-town casinos, but there are a lot of places to choose from!. I'm in a very similar situation and thought most of my playing days were behind me. After a few years I simply wore out my welcome, no matter what cover was used. After sulking and reanalyzing my situation, I began taking monthly/bi-monthly trips to numerous places within a reasonable distance. There are seemingly endless opportunities, even for those that have full-time jobs. Your future trips might be less frequent, but you can use the time to strengthen your BR and plan a trip that maximizes your time at quality games.

[Goatlife]

thanks for everyone's help and support

[sagefr0g]

I think you are one digit off my green friend. $14,000/10hrs*1hr/100hands = $14/hand.

gracious, gigger

[White Guy]

It seems most of my BO's have occurred after losing $$.

Great advice Tthree. If your head gets rattled when you are getting hammered you may ignore the signs or push it more than you should.

Ups and Downs happen with great regularity. Over the past appx 400 hrs I have not had a single win that equals my 1st and 2nd biggest losses and I am still up about EV for the time period.

Just a couple weeks ago I lost almost 200 units in 1 Shoe. Heads up, count went up, never went down and I lost/pushed almost every hand and kept getting doubles and splits.

Next Day, Within two consecutive shoes I won 244 units, it was like I could not lose. Those sessions happened about 4 shoes from each other.

Money comes in CHUNKS when you play B Jack. I have learned you cannot count on earning an amount per week or month or in some cases even a year.