21forme: Is there a TC in SP21 where the index plays = BJ BS?

[21forme]

Earlier this week, I experienced a monster count at a Sp21 table which made me wonder if there's a TC in Sp21 where proper play with indices is about the same as BJ basic strategy. Anyone?

[Aruuba]

> Earlier this week, I experienced a monster count at a
> Sp21 table which made me wonder if there's a TC in
> Sp21 where proper play with indices is about the same
> as BJ basic strategy. Anyone?

None I can think of that would be exactly the same. Don't know what "about the same" means though.

But you know the indexes and BS's of both games so I'm sure you can see the plays that would differ?

Revert to BJ BS in high SP21 counts using SP21 indexes when you say you know the proper play in SP21 with those indexes anyway? Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question?

So what was the count and how'd it turn out? :-)

[21forme]

> None I can think of that would be exactly the same.
> Don't know what "about the same" means
> though.

> But you know the indexes and BS's of both games so I'm
> sure you can see the plays that would differ?

> Revert to BJ BS in high SP21 counts using SP21 indexes
> when you say you know the proper play in SP21 with
> those indexes anyway? Maybe I'm misunderstanding your
> question?

> So what was the count and how'd it turn out? :-)

I know my indices up to +1. That's what prompted the question.

Count was up to +3. Unfortunately it didn't go well. Final hand I had an 11, doubled down and lost $1K.

[orster52]

> Earlier this week, I experienced a monster count at a
> Sp21 table which made me wonder if there's a TC in
> Sp21 where proper play with indices is about the same
> as BJ basic strategy. Anyone?

Frank Scoblete, "Armada Strategies for Spanish 21", page 46, "When the count hits "0", you will revert to traditional basic strategy instead of the Armada play basic strategy for the play of all hands."

He is completely wrong of course. Just follow Kat Walker's index numbers.

[Aruuba]

> I know my indices up to +1. That's what prompted the
> question.

Sorry that monster count didn't work out for you. Sometimes knowing "I played it flawlessly" doesn't help much when you lose. Though maybe that's better than "I played it completely wrong but I won"? -)

But I was thinking more about your question and if I take it to mean whether you would be better off blindly reverting to BJ BS in high counts vs blindly reverting to SP21 BS, which is what I might probably do if I did not know the correct index play at extreme counts, I can see what you mean.

Like take your monster +3 count.

If you blindly revert to BJ BS at that point vs blindly reverting to SP21 BS, you'll be correctly standing on 12 vs 5, 13 vs 3-6, 14 vs 2-3 which you would be incorrectly hitting if you reverted to SP21 BS. So you'd only be misplaying 12 vs 4 &6 and 13 vs 2. And I guess hitting 16 vs 10 instead of standing on it.

You'd also be picking up correctly doubling 9 vs 3,4,5 and 10 vs 9 compared to reverting to SP21 BS.

You'd pick up correctly doubling A,2, A,3 and A,4 vs 5 & 6, and A,5 vs 4&5,and A,6 and A,7 vs 3 none of which would have been picked up had you reverted to SP21 BS.

While giving up splitting 2's and 3's vs 8, you'd be picking up splitting 6,6 vs 2 and 3 and 4,4 vs 5&6.

Now whether you'd actually be giving up more than you're getting or vice-versa is another question. But maybe not such a bad thought after all - or at least an easy way to remember what mostly happens in high counts even if you don't know the exact SP21 recommended index play.

But, overall, given the number of plays you are picking up vs losing, the frequency they happen, and the gain involved for correctly using all SP21 indexes, it wouldn't surprise me that using BJ BS at =>+3 might actually be better than reverting to SP21 BS at that point. Especially if you choose to use BJ BS with just a few exceptions like don't hit 12 vs 4 or 6 or 13 vs 2 or add double 9 vs 2 and A,8 vs 5,6 which might be an easier way to remember it.

Probably not the worst fall back for the one time it happens every 200-300 hands.

Thanks for pointing out the broad relationship anyway - likely never would have thought of it that way otherwise.

[21forme]

Thanks for taking the time to provide your analysis. One play that wouldn't be an issue is 16 v 10 as that would be a surrender.

Though my Sp21 play is still fairly new, I find the pictures don't come out as often as I expect them to at high counts, like they do in BJ. I was playing yesterday and the count hit +2 in one shoe. I was expecting a bunch of 10-valued cards to hit the felt at that point, but they didn't.

[Aruuba]

> Thanks for taking the time to provide your analysis.
> One play that wouldn't be an issue is 16 v 10 as that
> would be a surrender.

> Though my Sp21 play is still fairly new, I find the
> pictures don't come out as often as I expect them to
> at high counts, like they do in BJ. I was playing
> yesterday and the count hit +2 in one shoe. I was
> expecting a bunch of 10-valued cards to hit the felt
> at that point, but they didn't.

It wasn't much of an analysis - I just lined up my index card and BS card. And alot of those plays you would already have picked up if you knew the indexes up to +1 anyway.

I guess the 16 vs 10 would apply to 3 or more card 16's vs 10.

At 75% pen I guess you only get a TC+2 once every 200 hands. What kind of pen avg would you say you are getting, if you don't mind me asking? Do you find it hard adjusting counting from a -32 RC start or estimating the 48 card decks or rounding the TC's? Gonna try to give it a shot in a month or so and wondering what to expect. Do full tables mostly prevent back-counting? Maybe mostly you start a shoe and wong-out at some point? Maybe these are not appropriate questions.

If it's any consolation, I think she says, in case you are back-counting uncapped, that the I18 will get you 99% of learning all indexes anyway.

[Aruuba]

> Thanks for taking the time to provide your analysis.
> One play that wouldn't be an issue is 16 v 10 as that
> would be a surrender.

> Though my Sp21 play is still fairly new, I find the
> pictures don't come out as often as I expect them to
> at high counts, like they do in BJ. I was playing
> yesterday and the count hit +2 in one shoe. I was
> expecting a bunch of 10-valued cards to hit the felt
> at that point, but they didn't.

It wasn't much of an analysis - I just lined up my index card and BS card. And alot of those plays you would already have picked up if you knew the indexes up to +1 anyway.

I guess the 16 vs 10 would apply to 3 or more card 16's vs 10.

At 75% pen I guess you only get a TC+2 once every 200 hands. What kind of pen avg would you say you are getting, if you don't mind me asking? Do you find it hard adjusting counting from a -32 RC start or estimating the 48 card decks or rounding the TC's? Gonna try to give it a shot in a month or so and wondering what to expect. Do full tables mostly prevent back-counting? Maybe mostly you start a shoe and wong-out at some point? Maybe these are not appropriate questions.

If it's any consolation, I think she says, in case you are back-counting uncapped, that the I18 will get you 99% of learning all indexes anyway.

[21forme]

> At 75% pen I guess you only get a TC+2 once every 200
> hands. What kind of pen avg would you say you are
> getting, if you don't mind me asking? Do you find it
> hard adjusting counting from a -32 RC start or
> estimating the 48 card decks or rounding the TC's?
> Gonna try to give it a shot in a month or so and
> wondering what to expect. Do full tables mostly
> prevent back-counting? Maybe mostly you start a shoe
> and wong-out at some point? Maybe these are not
> appropriate questions.

Apologies if this is a duplicate. I responded a bit earlier, but the post never made it...

On average, they are cutting off about 2 decks (out of 8.) As is the case with BJ, it's somewhat dealer dependent, and I've seen some games with only 1D cut off.

For BJ, I use (T)KO and expected some difficulty switching back and forth between counts. However, this hasn't been the case. First few times I played, I caught myself counting a few 7's as +1, and corrected myself. Now, I don't have to think about it.

Conditions permitting, I backcount my way into a game, sitting down at -3, to get the seat, then I tell the dealer not to wait for me, while I fumble around getting chips or money out of my pockets, etc. while counting another round or two. If the count continues to improve, I play. If not, I just continue watching. I do a lot of wonging out and rarely play a hand at TC <= -4.

Crowded tables are a problem. I'm surprised the casinos don't have more Sp21 tables considering how poor most Sp21 players play, including most betting on Match the Dealer. Maybe it's because of the royalties they pay to the game designer.

[Aruuba]

> Apologies if this is a duplicate. I responded a bit
> earlier, but the post never made it...

Thank you much for the update.

I had the same problem and I see I ended up with duplicate posts. Can't figure out how to delete one.

I guess you're supposed to have a slight advantage at -3 anyway which you probably know so I guess making a bet wouldn't hurt if you had to.