chilli: opinions

[chilli]

hi Don , since my last post i have put in 1537hrs after 28 months. down now 33500k. the rules are on 8decks, 1.5 cuttoff, ENHC, NO R.S.A, DOUBLE ONLY ON 9,10,11. at true 0 bet $25, at true 1 bet $50 , at true 2 bet $100, at true 3 bet $200 and at true 4 and above bet $400 also i walk away at -true 1,have been averaging about 90 hands a hour with 3 other players. what are your thoughts ? thanks in advance. chilli.

[Don Schlesinger]

> hi Don , since my last post i have put in 1537hrs
> after 28 months. down now 33500k. the rules are on
> 8decks, 1.5 cuttoff, ENHC, NO R.S.A, DOUBLE ONLY ON
> 9,10,11. at true 0 bet $25, at true 1 bet $50 , at
> true 2 bet $100, at true 3 bet $200 and at true 4 and
> above bet $400 also i walk away at -true 1,have been
> averaging about 90 hands a hour with 3 other players.
> what are your thoughts ? thanks in advance. chilli.

It's a horrible game, but with a 1-16 spread, you deserved a better fate, of course. If someone can sim the win rate and s.d. for this, we can determine just how unlucky you've been.

Don

[Dog Hand]

I simmed the game, assuming it is S17 (since chilli didn't say, I was hoping for the best!), and using chilli's bet ramp.

Below are the results.

When I plugged this win rate and SD into the calculator on CVData and requested the probability of being down 1340 units (or $33500 with $25 units) after roughly 15,000 hands played, I got 0.00%. Thus, either chilli is way, Way, WAY to the left, or something is not quite right.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

chilli

Monday, January 21, 2008, 12:00 PM

[/b]

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[/b]Summary

Here a summary by seat or player is displayed. Hands skipped indicates hands not played due to "Wonging." Action is Total $ bet per hour and Win Rate is $ won per hour. IBA is advantage related to the Initial Bet (before double downs.) Std. Devs. are always by player and DI is Desirability Index as defined by BJ Attack.

	Hands			$/Hour		Units W/L	Advan.			Std Dev				Performance
Seat	Played	Skip	%	Action	WinRate	Units W/L	TBA%	IBA%	SE	Hand	Hour	100	Shoe	DI	SCORE	N0	Factor
1	467,132,028	5.4645e8	45.4%	$2,274.34	$19.66	8,737,758	0.864	0.982	.019	4.13	26.39	41.31	17.0	2.12	4.47	223,478	.179
2
3
4
5
6
7

Strategies

Seat	Playing Strategy	Betting Strategy
1	Complete High-Low	chilli
2
3
4
5
6
7

Totals

Rounds: 1,000,000,000

Hands: 467,132,028

Shoes: 26,807,976

Hours: 11,111,110

[Kurt]

> It's a horrible game, but with a 1-16 spread, you
> deserved a better fate, of course. If someone can sim
> the win rate and s.d. for this, we can determine just
> how unlucky you've been.

> Don

Very sad your result, but PLEASE continue to play, it can go very fast upstairs within days after this down swing.

Kurt

[Francis Salmon]

> Very sad your result, but PLEASE continue to play, it
> can go very fast upstairs within days after this down
> swing.

> Kurt

Not sure. If is that far behind after 1500 hours, he is probably doing something wrong. May be lack of discipline, false TC-calculation, violation of basic strategy or giving too much tips.
Before chilli continues to play I would advise him to analyse his playing style thoroughly.

Francis Salmon

[chilli]

> Not sure. If is that far behind after 1500 hours, he
> is probably doing something wrong. May be lack of
> discipline, false TC-calculation, violation of basic
> strategy or giving too much tips.
> Before chilli continues to play I would advise him to
> analyse his playing style thoroughly.

> Francis Salmon
thanks Don, Dog hand , Kurt, and Francis. since i last posted i have now clocked up 1578 hrs and down now $28737.50. i dont tip , there is some cover i do only which is at very little cost. of course i dont play perfect, i was told win rates can be reduced in real world terms by as much as 30 percent. as far as discipline goes i may over bet and under bet in some times but i get these back in other ways and also its s17, sorry for the late reply its because i am either hitting the tables or recovering from the action . hope my reply can make things more clearer. thanks in advance Chilli.