jblaze: optimal starting bet

[jblaze]

say you're playing a 2 deck game, and you use the cover strategy of only upping your bet at most 2x after a win, only decreasing by half after a loss (or a push) - you play 2 hands pretty consistently but will drop to 1 if the count is very negative (like tc <-1). at tc<-1, I bet 1x1, at 0, 2x1, and max at tc6 at 2x3. this is basically a 12x spread.

I know Don mentions he starts at his second betting level off the top, which in my case would be 2x1. I'm finding however I am not getting the money out in the positive counts due to the betting cover restrictions, especially if the pen is not optimal, and especially if there are other players at the table. So, I'm looking for any help on coming up with an optimal starting bet - one that will minimize my loss off the top of the shoes but get me betting close to optimally when the count ups. It seems influencing variables are pen and players at the table.

Also, I bet off the top whatever my last bet was if it was a net win. If this bet is less than whatever 'optimal' turns out to be, then I would bet the higher optimal.

Hope anyone who can help can follow the message! Thanks

[Don Schlesinger]

> say you're playing a 2 deck game, and you use the
> cover strategy of only upping your bet at most 2x
> after a win, only decreasing by half after a loss (or
> a push) - you play 2 hands pretty consistently but
> will drop to 1 if the count is very negative (like tc<-1). > at tc<-1, I bet 1x1, at 0, 2x1, and max at tc6 at 2x3. >this is basically a 12x spread.

How do you get that, if your smallest bet is one hand of one unit and your biggest bet is two hands of three units? Surely looks like 1 to 6 spread to me!

> I know Don mentions he starts at his second betting
> level off the top, which in my case would be 2x1. I'm
> finding however I am not getting the money out in the
> positive counts due to the betting cover restrictions,
> especially if the pen is not optimal, and especially
> if there are other players at the table.

You're waiting too long to make your top bet.

> So, I'm
> looking for any help on coming up with an optimal
> starting bet - one that will minimize my loss off the
> top of the shoes but get me betting close to optimally
> when the count ups. It seems influencing variables are
> pen and players at the table.

What's your bankroll, in units, or dollars?

Don

[jblaze]

Ha, I meant 1x1 spread to 2x6. Celebrating the New Year early, clearly. My bankroll is a replenishable 500 units. I can't sim an ROR. I figure under 10% is fine with me, since I will scale down and replenish if necessary. With the strategy I use in CVCX I get an ROR of 5.4% (this also assumes 1.5/2 dealt, which might be much, and a 2x1 to 2x6 spread since I haven't figured out how to sim one and 2 hand strategies). I think the betting strategy will about double the ROR, no? I'm willing to chip up more if the count warrants, however, my ROR is about as high as I want to go, and 12x is probably a large spread for 2D, though Andersen mentions not chipping up in this case looks suspicious.

I'm also considering spreading 2x1 to 2x4 heads up and max betting of the top while playing everything else as close to perfect as I can.

Really I'm just looking for the best combination of cover that will preserve longevity and my win rate - aren't we all? I can drop my win rate by 50% and still have a worthwhile trip in my mind, so I'm open ears to whatever you can suggest. Thanks!
> How do you get that, if your smallest bet is one hand
> of one unit and your biggest bet is two hands of three
> units? Surely looks like 1 to 6 spread to me!

> You're waiting too long to make your top bet.

> What's your bankroll, in units, or dollars?

> Don

[Don Schlesinger]

> Ha, I meant 1x1 spread to 2x6. Celebrating the New
> Year early, clearly. My bankroll is a replenishable
> 500 units. I can't sim an ROR. I figure under 10% is
> fine with me, since I will scale down and replenish if
> necessary.

OK, fine; that's better!

FWIW, I played DD for many, many years in Las Vegas with, basically, a 1 to 6 spread, but I'm sure the rules were much, much better then. Places like the Maxim and Riviera had S17, DAS, and LS, and the pen at the Maxim was breathtaking. Ah, the good ol' days! ;-)

But, depending on what the unit size is, I was able to scale back, on bad counts, to say, 3/4 unit, if not half, and I played one hand all the time at DD. If you play two hands all the time, you might get away with 2 x 1 to 2 x 6, with the occasional (don't abuse it) pull-back to one hand of one unit. Don't get greedy about that. So, the effective spread is somewhat more than 1 to 6, but somewhat less than a pure 1 to 12, because you're not starting with one unit off the top.

Cover is costly, especially with more people at the table, since you have only a limited number of rounds to get to the max bet, and if you parlay up, without jumping the bet, it's harder to get to the max than if you're playing alone.

As always, the key is to play with as few other people as possible -- if any at all -- and look for the best rules and pen. That "Golden Rule" will never change!

Don

[Wolverine]

Also JBlaze, don't forget about "no mid-shoe entry" on many DD in Vegas. Once you drop to 1 hand from your starting two, a strict floor and/or dealer won't allow you to bring back your second hand until the shuffle. Not all will enforce it though, so figure out the policy before you jump around the bets/hands.

I think that some of Don's work on back counting and Wonging may play into this. For example, if the TC is -1 with many more rounds to play, you may want to ride out a 2 x 1 unit scenario a little longer than if 52 cards had disappeared in a DD game and the TC hit -1. Perhaps Don's work on backcounting departure points will give you the info you need. My gut would tell me that once the TC got to -2 or -3 and more than a 1/4 deck had been dealt, I would feel free to drop to one hand to optimize that spread (or suddenly feel the need to answer your phone or answer nature's call, or chat up a nice chick at the next table--Wong out essentially).

Hope that helps from an expeienced DD player. Good luck in getting the money.