young gun: what is my effective spread?

[Magician]

> For some reason, the bet schedule didn't come out the
> way I thought I wrote it. I don't know why this was
> but I can see why it wasn't clear.

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[young gun]

[Dog Hand]

young gun,

Ok, I ran two sims: one using your bet schedule; the other using a 1:10 spread. In each case, the player plays heads up with a max bet of $600. Thus, the "units" in the 1:10 spread are $60, while in your bet schedule the units are $50... that's because the bets in CVData have to be whole numbers, so I used 2x1, 1x4, 1x6, 1x8, and 1x12.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Effective Spread

Monday, December 10, 2007, 11:55 PM

[/b]

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[/b]Summary

Here a summary by seat or player is displayed. Hands skipped indicates hands not played due to "Wonging." Action is Total $ bet per hour and Win Rate is $ won per hour. IBA is advantage related to the Initial Bet (before double downs.) Std. Devs. are always by player and DI is Desirability Index as defined by BJ Attack.

	Hands			$/Hour		Units W/L	Advan.			Std Dev				Performance
Seat	Played	Skip	%	Action	WinRate	Units W/L	TBA%	IBA%	SE	Hand	Hour	100	Shoe	DI	SCORE	N0	Factor
1	316,966,424	2.0145e8	49.6%	$12,264	$151.98	1.2159e7	1.239	1.441	0.04	6.39	45.05	63.95	32.7	4.75	22.59	44,261	.904
2
3
4
5
6
7

Strategies

Seat	Playing Strategy	Betting Strategy
1	Complete High-Low	Young Gun
2
3
4
5
6
7

Totals

Rounds: 400,000,000

Hands: 316,966,424

Shoes: 7,597,073

Hours: 4,000,000

Effective Spread

Monday, December 10, 2007, 11:55 PM

[/b]

---

[/b]Summary

Here a summary by seat or player is displayed. Hands skipped indicates hands not played due to "Wonging." Action is Total $ bet per hour and Win Rate is $ won per hour. IBA is advantage related to the Initial Bet (before double downs.) Std. Devs. are always by player and DI is Desirability Index as defined by BJ Attack.

	Hands			$/Hour		Units W/L	Advan.			Std Dev				Performance
Seat	Played	Skip	%	Action	WinRate	Units W/L	TBA%	IBA%	SE	Hand	Hour	100	Shoe	DI	SCORE	N0	Factor
1	222,775,808	1.8339e8	54.2%	$7,277.75	$104.57	6,971,476	1.437	1.679	.023	3.47	25.50	34.66	19.8	5.03	25.29	39,541	1.012
2
3
4
5
6
7

Strategies

Seat	Playing Strategy	Betting Strategy
1	Complete High-Low	1-10 Spread
2
3
4
5
6
7

Totals

Rounds: 400,000,000

Hands: 222,775,808

Shoes: 6,605,118

Hours: 4,000,000

[young gun]

Thank you.

The the 10 to 1 spread outperformed the 6 to 1 spread by a SCORE of 25.29 to 22.59. In checking bjstats.com for the SCORES of this game using both of these spreads, the 10 to 1 spread gets 27.99 and the 6 to 1 gets 16.53. So as I expected, this closed the gap in SCORES by about 80%. Using my strategy with just a 7 to 1 spread would probably give the two spreads equal SCORES.

My only question is why is the 10:1 spread sitting out 5% more hands than the 6:1. I would think it the opposite, since the 6:1 spread is eating more cards in the early rounds, thus should get to a TC of -2 faster. Any thoughts on that?

thanks DH for running those numbers.

[Don Schlesinger]

"I would think it the opposite, since the 6:1 spread is eating more cards in the early rounds, thus should get to a TC of -2 faster."

How do you "get" to a certain TC? You can't force a TC to happen. The tendency of the TC is to remain exactly where it is at the moment. The expected TC, after the next hand is played, is to be exactly the same as what it was before the hand was played.

Not sure I understand your comment.

Don

[young gun]

> How do you "get" to a certain TC? You can't
> force a TC to happen. The tendency of the TC is to
> remain exactly where it is at the moment. The expected
> TC, after the next hand is played, is to be exactly
> the same as what it was before the hand was played.

The expected value of the true count does not change, but my thinking was that by playing 2 hands off the top, you are using more cards for each round, so the true count will fluctuate more per round than it would by starting off with one hand, reaching -2 in less rounds on average when playing two spots.

Does that make sense?

[young gun]

> How do you "get" to a certain TC? You can't
> force a TC to happen. The tendency of the TC is to
> remain exactly where it is at the moment. The expected
> TC, after the next hand is played, is to be exactly
> the same as what it was before the hand was played.

The expected value of the true count does not change. My thinking was that by playing 2 hands off the top, you are using more cards for each round, so the true count will fluctuate more per round than it would by starting off with one hand. In this way then TC reaches -2 in fewer average rounds when playing two spots.

Does that make sense?

[Don Schlesinger]

> The expected value of the true count does not change.
> My thinking was that by playing 2 hands off the top,
> you are using more cards for each round, so the true
> count will fluctuate more per round than it would by
> starting off with one hand. In this way then TC
> reaches -2 in fewer average rounds when playing two
> spots.

> Does that make sense?

In a way, but it kind of states the obvious: If the count is going to go from zero to -2, you're better off betting two hands of a half unit than one hand of one unit. But, you're best off betting ONE hand of a half unit!

Don

[MJ]

What is the ROR for each player? Also, how many rounds are dealt per hour? I don't see how the software comes up with the Hourly SD figures for each of the players.

MJ

[Dog Hand]

What is the ROR for each player? Also, how many rounds are dealt per hour? I don't see how the software comes up with the Hourly SD figures for each of the players.

MJ,

The sim had the player playing 100 rounds per hour... you can tell this by looking at the 400-million rounds played in 4 million hours.

For the 1:10 one-hand spread, the player plays 54.2 rounds/hour with a SD of 3.47/round. Thus, the hourly SD is 3.47*sqrt(54.2) = 25.546.../hour.

For the Young Gun spread, the player plays 49.6 rounds/hour with a SD of 6.39/round. Thus, the hourly SD is 6.39*sqrt(49.6) = 45.003.../hour.

As for RoR, that depends on the player's bankroll, which was not specified.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[MJ]

> Hope this helps!

Thanks that certainly helped.

One other question. For the Young Gun spread, how does the software compute 49.6% rounds played? 317M/518M /= 0.496.

Played Skipped % Played
316,966,424 2.0145e8 49.6%

For the 1 to 10 spread, the math works out.

MJ