larrypas: Stand, hit or surrender?

[larrypas]

TC +2
hero: 7,7 dealer: 7
split 1st K,7
split 2nd 7,3 double 7,3,4=14 (should hero hit?stand? surrender? (note: surrender is allowed after doubling)
split 3rd 7,3

thanks

[Dog Hand]

larrypas,

Well, I checked Cacarulo's EV tables (see link below) {Sorry, Don... I don't have BJA3 at work!} to find the standing and hitting EV's for 14 vs. 7. If the higher of these two EV's is lower than -0.5, then surrendering is the best play.

For any number of decks, the standing EV's for T,4 vs. 7, 9,5 vs. 7, and 8,6 vs. 7 are all very close to but just slightly higher than -0.5. The closest call is for single deck for 9,5 vs. 7, which has an EV of -0.49972.

However, the hitting EV's are all MUCH higher than -0.5. The lowest hitting EV is for single deck 8,6 vs. 7, which has a hitting EV of -0.34853.

Based on these numbers, hitting is the correct decision.

Granted, these numbers are all for "off-the-top-of-the-shoe" two-card 14's (whereas your hand was three cards), and don't account for the +2 TC. However, I seriously doubt the effect of removal is so high as to lower these hitting EV's to below -0.5.

Further bolstering this analysis is the fact that the index numbers for standing or surrendering on 14 vs. 7 are much, much higher than +2 for HiLo (again, I can't quote the exact values since I also don't have Wong's Professional BJ at work!).

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand