Brick: Increasing bets after a win.

Brick · 10-18-2007, 06:33 PM

case 1:anyone know how much ev is given up if i only increase my optimal bets after a win?

case 2: if after a loss i bet minimum until a win?

case 3: if after a loss i bet half the optimal bet untill a win?

I understand i'm giving up ev in all the above,however does anyone know the risk of ruin in all 3 cases?(1-12 spread)

thanks.

AlexD30 · 10-18-2007, 10:02 PM

> case 1:anyone know how much ev is given up if i only
> increase my optimal bets after a win?

> case 2: if after a loss i bet minimum until a win?

> case 3: if after a loss i bet half the optimal bet
> untill a win?
> I understand i'm giving up ev in all the above,however
> does anyone know the risk of ruin in all 3 cases?(1-12
> spread) - > thanks.

Gaining an advantage in blackjack using betting variations, I would say no. Of course, there are plenty of exceptions to anything I say, it depends exactly on the situation, but normally if you try to gain advantage by money management alone, you will actually lose more. It all depends if you count and detect when you have edge and correlate your betting progression with the count. So, by manipulating your bets, I would say: you cannot get any edge by betting more or less based on the previous hands outcome.

Money management in most people’s minds means quitting simply because of how you are doing that day, or continuing to play simply because of how you are doing that day. OR, betting more/less simply because of the result of the previous hand. In other words, you are in a game and you have lost x number of bets so you quit, only to come back tomorrow. OR, you lost a hand and now you increase your next bet hopping to win back what you lost in the first place. OR you lost x hands in a row and you quit, only to come back after the shuffle. Well, that is a silly concept because it is all one game and what matter is how much you bet when you have edge. You’re not increasing your bet because you lost the last hand or because you won the last hand. This is simply incorrect. This is not my opinion, this is simply incorrect. If you play in a game where you have the advantage, the more you play, the more you will eventually win. If you play in a game where you have the disadvantage, the more you play the more you will eventually lose. There’s no way of getting around that. If there was such a thing as getting around having an advantage simply by money management, you could go to the crap table and win by money management. In other words by quitting at the right time or not quitting at the right time OR by betting more after a loss or after a winning hand but you cannot do that.

Money management is a completely spurious idea. The only thing that matters when you are gambling is to gamble when the odds are in your favor. And when you are in that situation play as long as you can. That’s really all there is to say. If you are a serious player, you are playing for the long run, not by the hour or by the day.

Brick · 10-19-2007, 12:14 AM

i should have mentioned i am a veteran card counter...not a progression player or voodoo child. the questions i ask are in respect to ev,nothing else.

these are tactics i desire to use in the near future when conditions are called for,if you know what i mean.

thanks

Norm Wattenberger · 10-19-2007, 06:36 AM

Depends on the exact ramp, number of decks and number of players. Number of players makes a very large difference in cover betting.

> i should have mentioned i am a veteran card
> counter...not a progression player or voodoo child.
> the questions i ask are in respect to ev,nothing else.

> these are tactics i desire to use in the near future
> when conditions are called for,if you know what i
> mean.

> thanks

Norm Wattenberger · 10-19-2007, 05:59 PM

6 decks, S17, DAS, 80% penetration, HiLo Ill18, 1:12 spread:

> case 1:anyone know how much ev is given up if i only
> increase my optimal bets after a win?

Heads up you give up 12% of win rate
Six players, you give up 34%

> case 2: if after a loss i bet minimum until a win?

Heads up you give up 68%
Six players, you give up 64%

> case 3: if after a loss i bet half the optimal bet
> untill a win?

Heads up you give up 24%
Six players, you give up 24%

Of course different circumstances could result in very different results. Cover betting enormously complicates such calculations.

Serious Blackjack Software

Brick · 10-19-2007, 06:16 PM

Thanks Norm,i've been using case 3. I will now use case 1 playing heads up.

a few more questions,in case 3 st dev and ror will be decreased,is this correct? if so by how much? is dev and ror decreased on all cases?

thanks again!