if you can get $1013 in non negotiable chips for evry $1000 cash buyin.(1.3% rolling), and you play these chips against -0.3% house edge game, you have the 1% ev game. i.e., $1 expected win on $100 bet.
is my assumption right?
also, if you flat bet this game, how many units do you recommand for the bankroll to minimize the chance of ruin and maximize profits?
thanks in advance.
> if you can get $1013 in non negotiable chips for evry
> $1000 cash buyin.(1.3% rolling), and you play these
> chips against -0.3% house edge game, you have the 1%
> ev game. i.e., $1 expected win on $100 bet.
> is my assumption right?
No. Usually, the non-neg chips have to be lost, otherwise, they have no value to you. You can't have them left over at the end of your play, because you can't cash them. So, let's say -- just to make it easy -- that you bet $10 a hand and make 100 such bets -- all with non-negs -- for one hour. You will have bet the $1,000, but you will still have, roughly, $500 in non-negs when the hour is up. Of course, hopefully, you'll also have $500 or so of regular chips, to be near breakeven, but the point is, the non-negs' value can only be realized as you lose them (they go into the dealer's tray), and you can't lose them at the normal rate. :-)
> also, if you flat bet this game, how many units do you
> recommend for the bankroll to minimize the chance of
> ruin and maximize profits?
Lots and lots!! :-)
Seriously, it's impossible to answer such a question without knowing how long you hope to play.
Don
> No. Usually, the non-neg chips have to be lost,
> otherwise, they have no value to you. You can't have
> them left over at the end of your play, because you
> can't cash them. So, let's say -- just to make it easy
> -- that you bet $10 a hand and make 100 such bets --
> all with non-negs -- for one hour. You will have bet
> the $1,000, but you will still have, roughly, $500 in
> non-negs when the hour is up. Of course, hopefully,
> you'll also have $500 or so of regular chips, to be
> near breakeven, but the point is, the non-negs' value
> can only be realized as you lose them (they go into
> the dealer's tray), and you can't lose them at the
> normal rate. :-)
ok, i understand that it takes roughly twice as long to play though non negs.
the fact is that you can play as long as you wish with non negs.(there is no time limit, therefore, there will be no left over non negs. by the end of the day.)
now, i understand that non negs. have no value unless they are converted back into cash. so you pay the house 3 units for every 1000 units conversion fee by flat betting and play through -0.3% ev house game.
conculusion, you subtract 3 units from 13 extra units you recieved at buyin. resulting in 10 units gain for 1000 buyin. an ev of 1%
what am i missing here?
> Lots and lots!! :-)
will 100 units do? or is 150 units sounds more resonable? or even more units required?
> Seriously, it's impossible to answer such a question
> without knowing how long you hope to play.
let us say i hope to play this game "indefinitely".
thank you again, in advance for your time and expertise in answering.
> Don
> No. Usually, the non-neg chips have to be lost,
> otherwise, they have no value to you. You can't have
> them left over at the end of your play, because you
> can't cash them. So, let's say -- just to make it easy
> -- that you bet $10 a hand and make 100 such bets --
> all with non-negs -- for one hour. You will have bet
> the $1,000, but you will still have, roughly, $500 in
> non-negs when the hour is up. Of course, hopefully,
> you'll also have $500 or so of regular chips, to be
> near breakeven, but the point is, the non-negs' value
> can only be realized as you lose them (they go into
> the dealer's tray), and you can't lose them at the
> normal rate. :-)
dear don,
first, and for most, thanks for your time and expertise.
what you are saying is that you have to roughly play twice as many hands to lose non negs. at negative ev house game (csm, for instance) to realize your rolling bonus than you normally would if you had played with the regular chips?
thank you again.
with respect,
t.
> dear don,
> first, and for most, thanks for your time and
> expertise.
You're welcome.
> what you are saying is that you have to roughly play
> twice as many hands to lose non negs. at negative ev
> house game (csm, for instance) to realize your rolling
> bonus than you normally would if you had played with
> the regular chips?
Yes, precisely.
> thank you again.
My pleasure.
Don
Actually, it's only about 80-85% more hands, for two reasons:
(1) You will win only about 47.5% of all decisions (excluding push, although push in 21 is technically a "decision of zero"), which means you will lose about 52.5% of all decisions; and
(2) your average loss will be about 1.0995 times the amount bet, due to losing splits and doubles.
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