Does any simulator provides dealer bust probability per TC?Thanks in advance. Shark
Does any simulator provides dealer bust probability per TC?Thanks in advance. Shark
> Does any simulator provides dealer bust probability
> per TC?Thanks in advance. Shark
I suppose I could add it - but I never saw the purpose. You can get the dealer bust rate for any set of cards on my free calculator at www.card-counting.com/CVDPC.htm
> Does any simulator provides dealer bust probability
> per TC? Thanks in advance. Shark
The dealer bust rate varies very little from the overall 28.2-28.4% (depending on rules), as the TC varies. As the count increases, the dealer breaks slightly less than the above amount, but it is only several tenths of a percent, and so doesn't matter very much. Conversely, at the lower TCs, he breaks slightly more.
And no, I didn't write the above backwards! :-)
Don
"As the count increases, the dealer breaks slightly less than the above amount, but it is only several tenths of a percent, and so doesn't matter very much. Conversely, at the lower TCs, he breaks slightly more. And no, I didn't write the above backwards!"
This could be misunderstood by many because the dealer does actually break more often at higher tc's with bust cards showing,however they will also get more 2 card pat hands. As a result of this,it's the only reason the bust rate lowers at higher tc's. An interesting question would be: Whats the dealers bust rate when showing a 5 at a -5 tc compared to a +5tc?
Brick
> "As the count increases, the dealer breaks
> slightly less than the above amount, but it is only
> several tenths of a percent, and so doesn't matter
> very much. Conversely, at the lower TCs, he breaks
> slightly more. And no, I didn't write the above
> backwards!"
> This could be misunderstood by many because the dealer
> does actually break more often at higher tc's with
> bust cards showing,however they will also get more 2
> card pat hands.
Correct. But, why break it down into the two parts? In all, the simple statement is that the two tend to cancel each other out, leaving the global bust rate almost unchanged.
> As a result of this, it's the only
> reason the bust rate lowers at higher tc's.
How many reasons do we need? :-)
> An interesting question would be: What's the dealer's bust
> rate when showing a 5 at a -5 tc compared to a +5tc?
Just a guess: 22% vs. 34%. I do remember this much: It takes a TC of about +10 for the dealer to have a 50% chance of breaking with a 5 or 6.
Don
> "As the count increases, the dealer breaks
> slightly less than the above amount, but it is only
> several tenths of a percent, and so doesn't matter
> very much. Conversely, at the lower TCs, he breaks
> slightly more. And no, I didn't write the above
> backwards!"
> This could be misunderstood by many because the dealer
> does actually break more often at higher tc's with
> bust cards showing,however they will also get more 2
> card pat hands. As a result of this,it's the only
> reason the bust rate lowers at higher tc's. An
> interesting question would be: Whats the dealers bust
> rate when showing a 5 at a -5 tc compared to a +5tc?
> Brick
I have an program I created a couple of years ago as an exploratory way of presenting CA data. I did it before I tackled the problem of dealing with splits. One of its functions is to output dealer probablities for whatever shoe comp is input, so if you were to provide specific shoe comp/number of deck combinations that computed to a TC of +5 (or whatever), I could give the corresponding exact bust rates. As an example, I am providing a link to a screenshot (link below) of the program in which a single deck shoe comp of 4-3-3-3-3-2-4-4-4-15 has been input. It doesn't matter how the shoe comp has come to be, but this particular comp corresponds to a single deck where one (2,3,4,6) has been removed and player has been dealt a hand of (10,6 versus a dealer up card of 5.) The exact TC computes to (+5)*52/45, which is +5 floored. The bust rate for this particular shoe is .47577.
The other input is for player and is not germaine to your question. The hard and soft standing number inputs define the the player's hit/stand strategy. In the example, player stands on his hard 16, since 16 is greater than 12. If a person wanted to see the figure for drawing on 16, a hard standing number of 17 (or more) could be input. Player data is output as expected winning fraction as opposed to EV. A winning fraction of .5 corresponds to an EV of 0. Winning fractions are effective for comparison purposes as long as splits or doubles are not entered into the mix.
Anyway, if you provide the shoes/number of decks, I can without much trouble provide data and you could get some sort of answer to your question.
kc
I was thinking in terms of "over all" average weight for a tc of 5. Typical 6 deck strip rules with 4.5 pen' using the hi-lo count.
thanks,
Brick
> I was thinking in terms of "over all"
> average weight for a tc of 5. Typical 6 deck strip
> rules with 4.5 pen' using the hi-lo count.
> thanks,
> Brick
A reasonable way for me to do it would be to run a sim in conjuction with the program. Every time the tc hits +5 feed the simmed shoe comp as input to the program and get an exact bust rate. Since the bust rate is exact, I don't think it would require an overwhelming amount of data points to get a meaningful result. I'm not prepared to do this at this time though, but I can provide anecdotal data pretty easily.
If I ever get around to doing something along these lines, I would want to be able to analyze more than just a bust rate to make it worth the effort.
kc
Silly me. Yes CVData can support this through the programmable custom rules feature. You set a rule that pays a zero dollar bonus when the dealer has over 21. (Takes three clicks.) It will then track dealer busts by TC in the Custom Bonuses table.
I thought this would be the place to receive a quick reply for such a problem. Shark
I see the custom bonus page but it doesn't provide per count bust probability. I must be missing on something. Shark
> Silly me. Yes CVData can support this through the
> programmable custom rules feature. You set a rule that
> pays a zero dollar bonus when the dealer has over 21.
> (Takes three clicks.) It will then track dealer busts
> by TC in the Custom Bonuses table.
1. On the Payoffs tab, click Set Custom Bonuses
2. Turn on Rule 1
3. Set Total to >21
4. Turn on Dlr at the far right to indicate we are looking at the dealer hand
5. Turn on Split and DD so Split and DD hands will be counted.
6. All other options for Rule 1 off.
The above will create a new rule where you get a $0 bonus if the dealer busts. Run the sim. Select the Won/Lost-Custom Bonuses table. Under Rule 1, you will see the count of dealer busts. Divide by # hands for the player (not rounds) for the dealer bust rate.
Note: this will be the bust rate by hands not rounds. There would be a very slight difference for rounds.
Note: The dealer bust rate depends on number of players.
If you are looking for the bust rate only when the dealer must complete his hand, then set the player strategy to hit until bust. Then the dealer will always complete his hand unless the player BJs. Turn off Splits to get an exact number by rounds.
norm
> I see the custom bonus page but it doesn't provide per
> count bust probability. I must be missing on
> something. Shark
I did that and I get the dealer bust rate. I don't get dealer bust rate or probability of custom bonus per TC. Shark
> 1. On the Payoffs tab, click Set Custom Bonuses
> 2. Turn on Rule 1
> 3. Set Total to >21
> 4. Turn on Dlr at the far right to indicate we are
> looking at the dealer hand
> 5. Turn on Split and DD so Split and DD hands will be
> counted.
> 6. All other options for Rule 1 off.
> The above will create a new rule where you get a $0
> bonus if the dealer busts. Run the sim. Select the
> Won/Lost-Custom Bonuses table. Under Rule 1, you will
> see the count of dealer busts. Divide by # hands for
> the player (not rounds) for the dealer bust rate.
> Note: this will be the bust rate by hands not rounds.
> There would be a very slight difference for rounds.
> Note: The dealer bust rate depends on number of
> players.
> If you are looking for the bust rate only when the
> dealer must complete his hand, then set the player
> strategy to hit until bust. Then the dealer will
> always complete his hand unless the player BJs. Turn
> off Splits to get an exact number by rounds.
> norm
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