Jay: What's The Best Way To Beat This Game?

[Jay]

I am normally a red player, but I have found a $25 min game I want to exploit for a 3-day period (play all, 4 or more hours a day). My trip bankroll is limited to $1200. The game is under high but not intense scrutiny. The pit likes high bettors/big losers (go figure). I have played the game a few times in the past in short sessions (an hour or so each), winning a couple hundred at a time, but it's difficult to get a seat without a long wait, especially during peak hours.

I have an optimal basic strategy chart for the game, and use KO for my count.

SD 3:2 S17 DAS no RSA
5 spots at the table, normally full, so 2 rounds per deal

Given the trip bankroll, would either of the following scenarios be optimal, or perhaps something different?

#1 -
$25 off the top, $50 at +3, $75 at +5
(this is what I have used in the past to stay under the radar, no heat so far)

#2 -
$50 off the top, $50 at +2, $100 at +3, $150 at +5, $25 at <= +1

Some of the BS split plays like 6,6 vs 7 & 7.7 vs 8 could contribute to cover.

I know that KO says to raise your bet at +2/+4, but I feel more comfortable using the higher raise points in single deck.

I usually use only a few indeces: insurance, 15.16 vs 10 and 12 vs 2.3 all at +4.

I know a bigger spread could win more, but jumping from $50 to $200 might be too much for this game.

What is my risk of ruin with such a small bankroll? I have a decent but not flawless cover as a tourist/visitor. Is there a lower risk/optimal betting strategy that is better than my above options? Are there any low-count indeces I should use?

Thanks to the mathemeticians and sim wizards for any help you can provide, as well as any other suggestions.

Jay

[Magician]

> I am normally a red player, but I have found a $25 min
> game I want to exploit for a 3-day period (play all, 4
> or more hours a day). My trip bankroll is limited to
> $1200. The game is under high but not intense
> scrutiny. The pit likes high bettors/big losers (go
> figure). I have played the game a few times in the
> past in short sessions (an hour or so each), winning a
> couple hundred at a time, but it's difficult to get a
> seat without a long wait, especially during peak
> hours.

> I have an optimal basic strategy chart for the game,
> and use KO for my count.

> SD 3:2 S17 DAS no RSA
> 5 spots at the table, normally full, so 2 rounds per
> deal

> Given the trip bankroll, would either of the following
> scenarios be optimal, or perhaps something different?

> #1 -
> $25 off the top, $50 at +3, $75 at +5
> (this is what I have used in the past to stay under
> the radar, no heat so far)

> #2 -
> $50 off the top, $50 at +2, $100 at +3, $150 at +5,
> $25 at Some of the BS split plays like 6,6 vs 7
> & 7.7 vs 8 could contribute to cover.

With a $150 top bet and a $1200 trip roll, you could be wiped out in one hand (assuming splitting to 4 hands is allowed). I think your RoR would be far too high.

[AutomaticMonkey]

Sounds to me like you are describing one of those few SD games out there that has a positive EV using just Basic Strategy.

With 5 players at the table you can forget about beating them with a spread. So what you might want to do is use an ace-neutral count with a high playing and insurance efficiency, sit as close to the last spot as you can, and flat-bet it, and whatever that flat bet is depends on your willingness to accept ruin and how little you are willing to work for per hour. Only you know the answers to those questions. If it were me, I'd bet it big and make sure I have something else to do if I tap out.

[Dog Hand]

Jay,

You Won't Last 4 Hours...

I know the game you mean. Believe me, you won't be able to sit there for four hours spreading with the count, even with a max bet below $100. Just play for 20 or 30 minutes, then leave. Repeat three times each day, once per shift. I have often found room at that table at times that I would have expected it to be full.

Finally, don't be surprised if you receive a visit from the Casino Shift Manager. Many of us have received our first rejections at that table.

Dog Hand