Matt: progressive betting

[Matt]

i kno first hand what progressive betting can do...same way i won 3800 on monday is the same way i lost 5000 friday...but then i learned card counting...today was a nightmare tho, i kept getting 15s, 16s on positive counts, my double downs on 11 always got me a 4 or 5, dealer never busted...i slammed my fist down on the table as the dealer blackjacked on my last 20 bucks...but back to the question...since i'm fairly new at blackjack, what are some thoughts of maybe progressive betting only when i have a positive count? i could sit at 5 dollar tables tomorrow with a 300 dollar bankroll, on a six deck shoe..any feedback would be appreciated

[thewerb]

double down losses on 11 would go better if you kept seperate ace count. ex. low ace's might not want to double down on 11 but def on 10 or 19 with dealer showing under 8 or depending on count whatever strategy you use.
it takes practice i like the toes kinda make a simple code like push the big toe up at three aces played

no more progressive your bankroll is limited theirs isnt and they love prgressive for that fact. even when you had a couple thousand that is why they put a max or atleast one reason.they have better bankers

tommorow with a 300 dollar bankroll the odds against doubling it are staggering (these guys can give you exact)
half is better like 150 but 50 is more manageable.

im sure parker can recomend some good books i prefer beat the dealer not for facts they are outdated, but its like a counters bible..some funny stories like cuba playing and cheating gadgets.

[AutomaticMonkey]

Any method where you bet more in positive counts than in negative counts will give you an edge, however any method where the increase in bet is not proportional to your advantage will cause you to lose efficiency. There are high level players who use progressions as tools for cover, but you are nowhere near ready to do that. Stay away from all progressions.

$300 in your pocket is not enough to play a $5 game or any game. Your loss sounds to me like just a normal fluctuation. One thing about a shoe game is that the changes in your win/loss record are not detectable by human perception. Your advantage is less than 2%. I can give you two light bulbs, one 2% brighter than the other, and you won't be able to tell me which one is brighter even with them both in front of you. So trust your math, and if you don't have simulator software go buy it before you go out to play again.

> i kno first hand what progressive betting can
> do...same way i won 3800 on monday is the same way i
> lost 5000 friday...but then i learned card
> counting...today was a nightmare tho, i kept getting
> 15s, 16s on positive counts, my double downs on 11
> always got me a 4 or 5, dealer never busted...i
> slammed my fist down on the table as the dealer
> blackjacked on my last 20 bucks...but back to the
> question...since i'm fairly new at blackjack, what are
> some thoughts of maybe progressive betting only when i
> have a positive count? i could sit at 5 dollar tables
> tomorrow with a 300 dollar bankroll, on a six deck
> shoe..any feedback would be appreciated

[Hollywood]

> i kno first hand what progressive betting can
> do...same way i won 3800 on monday is the same way i
> lost 5000 friday...but then i learned card
> counting...today was a nightmare tho, i kept getting
> 15s, 16s on positive counts, my double downs on 11
> always got me a 4 or 5, dealer never busted...i
> slammed my fist down on the table as the dealer
> blackjacked on my last 20 bucks...but back to the
> question...since i'm fairly new at blackjack, what are
> some thoughts of maybe progressive betting only when i
> have a positive count? i could sit at 5 dollar tables
> tomorrow with a 300 dollar bankroll, on a six deck
> shoe..any feedback would be appreciated

Progresive betting is a no no.

However, I must admit I use it for camo at high plus counts.

I usually announce out loud, "nothing is working here, maybe ill try some progression.

I'll do anything to get more money on the table.

Beyond that, it's a bad move and a losing propersition in the long term. And as you know, card counting is ONLY about the long term.

Ya gotta love the blueprint
Hollywood

[YaleMoto]

> i kno first hand what progressive betting can
> do...same way i won 3800 on monday is the same way i
> lost 5000 friday...but then i learned card
> counting...today was a nightmare tho, i kept getting
> 15s, 16s on positive counts, my double downs on 11
> always got me a 4 or 5, dealer never busted...i
> slammed my fist down on the table as the dealer
> blackjacked on my last 20 bucks...but back to the
> question...since i'm fairly new at blackjack, what are
> some thoughts of maybe progressive betting only when i
> have a positive count? i could sit at 5 dollar tables
> tomorrow with a 300 dollar bankroll, on a six deck
> shoe..any feedback would be appreciated

Although betting progressions will NOT change your expectation, they can skew your playing session win/loss distributions - negative progressions create a series of many small winning sessions and a smaller number of large losing sessions. Arnold Synder has done an interesting article on the Oscar's Grind system. It's posted on his site. I am incorporating this system into my 6 deck backcounting play for camouflage and to counter normal flux. However, there is a problem with overbetting your bankroll when using a prog system that must be considered in sizing bets. You also must structure systems for splits and double downs. There are ways to modify the popular negative progs to extend the chance of reaching table maximums too.

[Trapper]

> Arnold Synder has
> done an interesting article on the Oscar's Grind
> system. It's posted on his site. I am incorporating
> this system into my 6 deck backcounting play for
> camouflage and to counter normal flux.

I'm not sure how you can use this system to counter normal flux. If anything, wouldn't this system create much more variance than optimal betting especially when you are forced to wong out in mid-progression. I looked at Oscar's Grind as a possible way to play online bonuses - the possibility of many small losses with infrequent (though very large) losses sounded perfect. But to get those benefits you have to have a large bankroll and be committed to going deep in to the whole and follow the progressions through to the eventual win.