It happened again last night. The true count is +5, and I lost seven 12 unit bets in a row. This happens to me all the time. I have never won five or more hands in a row when the count is +5 or higher, but I lose five or more hands in a row all the time during such a count. How am I supposed to make money? It's been twenty months now.
> It happened again last night. The true count is +5,
> and I lost seven 12 unit bets in a row. This happens
> to me all the time. I have never won five or more
> hands in a row when the count is +5 or higher, but I
> lose five or more hands in a row all the time during
> such a count. How am I supposed to make money? It's
> been twenty months now.
Frustrated,
I think you posted along this same line a few months ago...?
What type of BJ game, shoe...pitch...particulars.
Ouchez.
> It happened again last night. The true count is +5,
> and I lost seven 12 unit bets in a row. This happens
> to me all the time. I have never won five or more
> hands in a row when the count is +5 or higher, but I
> lose five or more hands in a row all the time during
> such a count. How am I supposed to make money? It's
> been twenty months now.
First, you are NOT the 'unluckiest' player here or anywhere else. Most anyone that has played this game seriously has had similiar experiences, some with MUCH more devestating results than you.
One, you either believe or you don't. Simple as that. You believe in the math, you fire away, never in doubt. I don't care if you lose 100 max bets in a row, you keep plugging away. You don't believe, you quit.
Two, if you really do believe in the math, you have to learn to face the 'emotional' aspect of this game...that means LOSING! I speak from example about this as I have gone through a similiar experience as you. I even posted about this exact subject at another site.
We can read about flux and think we're ready for it, but until we actually go 'through the experience', we don't know if we are ready.
I can't tell from your post, but if you have had this 'losing' from your first experience with AP, I can only say 'hang in there'. Most players quit.
Check yourself on the computer to make sure you are playing a 'winning' game, you may just be losing in the casinos. Also, make sure your games are really 'good' games.
I emphathize with you, this game will test your SOUL!
Keep the faith...regards,
PM
Perhaps you played a poor game? Or there were cheatings? Perhaps you should look harder for better games? The World Champion may win less than a BS player if the champ plays at AC while the BS player plays a joker game. I play mostly full ES game, am playing now 87.5% penetration and no heat game. I will not tell you where I play... sorry. I will tell you this, there are good games such as followings out there. If you play poor games and lose, you deserved it.
* Joker gamnes.
* Full ES games.
* 87.5% penetration games.
* 10% match play coupon game for buy-in up to $10K a a day.
* ES10 and 5 cards early half win game.
* ES10 and 4 to 1 any 678 game.
* Full Esand same suit BJ 2 to 1 game.
* Full ES and 2 to 1 any 678 game.
8 10% loss rebate on losing over $1K a day.
I win because I play ONLY theses games, don't blame CC of what happen to you. There were reasons for your losing.
Yes I did post something similiar before, it hasn't gotten better since, and I can't understand it. The dealer constantly has a ten when the count it high, forcing me to hit my stiffs. The dealer keeps gettin 20 and 21 over and over again. The dealer rarely busts. I can't see how it can keep happening over and over again. I win about 20% of my double downs when the count is high.
I play six deck shoes, DOA, DAS, no surrender. Penetration 75%-85%.
I play
> Frustrated,
> I think you posted along this same line a few months
> ago...?
> What type of BJ game, shoe...pitch...particulars.
> Ouchez.
I still believe, but it's getting frustrating. I can't understand how I keep going against the odds over and over again. I still have a bankroll to play with. The problem is, at this rate, if I keep losing over and over again, I won't.
> First, you are NOT the 'unluckiest' player here or
> anywhere else. Most anyone that has played this game
> seriously has had similiar experiences, some with MUCH
> more devestating results than you.
> One, you either believe or you don't. Simple as that.
> You believe in the math, you fire away, never in
> doubt. I don't care if you lose 100 max bets in a row,
> you keep plugging away. You don't believe, you quit.
> Two, if you really do believe in the math, you have to
> learn to face the 'emotional' aspect of this
> game...that means LOSING! I speak from example about
> this as I have gone through a similiar experience as
> you. I even posted about this exact subject at another
> site.
> We can read about flux and think we're ready for it,
> but until we actually go 'through the experience', we
> don't know if we are ready.
> I can't tell from your post, but if you have had this
> 'losing' from your first experience with AP, I can
> only say 'hang in there'. Most players quit.
> Check yourself on the computer to make sure you are
> playing a 'winning' game, you may just be losing in
> the casinos. Also, make sure your games are really
> 'good' games.
> I emphathize with you, this game will test your SOUL!
> Keep the faith...regards,
> PM
How is finding better penetration going to prevent me from losing seven hands in a row when the true count is +5? How is finding full ES games going to stop the dealer from turning and up 5 to a 21 over and over again? How is finding a match play game going to prevent me from losing a double down when I have an 11 and the dealer has a 4 showing? Those are the things that keep happeneing over and over again. I don't blame card counting, I'm just can't believe that the unlikely events keep happening to me over and over again over twenty months!
> Perhaps you played a poor game? Or there were
> cheatings? Perhaps you should look harder for better
> games? The World Champion may win less than a BS
> player if the champ plays at AC while the BS player
> plays a joker game. I play mostly full ES game, am
> playing now 87.5% penetration and no heat game. I will
> not tell you where I play... sorry. I will tell you
> this, there are good games such as followings out
> there. If you play poor games and lose, you deserved
> it.
> * Joker gamnes.
> * Full ES games.
> * 87.5% penetration games.
> * 10% match play coupon game for buy-in up to $10K a a
> day.
> * ES10 and 5 cards early half win game.
> * ES10 and 4 to 1 any 678 game.
> * Full Esand same suit BJ 2 to 1 game.
> * Full ES and 2 to 1 any 678 game.
> 8 10% loss rebate on losing over $1K a day.
> I win because I play ONLY theses games, don't blame CC
> of what happen to you. There were reasons for your
> losing.
> Perhaps you played a poor game? Or there were
> cheatings? Perhaps you should look harder for better
> games? The World Champion may win less than a BS
> player if the champ plays at AC while the BS player
> plays a joker game. I play mostly full ES game, am
> playing now 87.5% penetration and no heat game. I will
> not tell you where I play... sorry. I will tell you
> this, there are good games such as followings out
> there. If you play poor games and lose, you deserved
> it...
Come on man there are no full ES games in the US. If somebody wants to drop their life and go to some country where they don't use deodorant to be a full-time pro that's their business, but the real reason for losing is variance, plain and simple. I normally play shoe games with an N0 around 20000, and 20000 hands is beyond what a human can manage within his memory. That's over a month of full time play and most people can't remember what they had for dinner two nights ago. Therefore winning in BJ cannot be obvious. Losing is obvious when you are playing undercapitalized, which I suspect more part-timers do than admit.
Besides, better rules in a shoe game only decrease your variance incrementally if you increase your bet according to Kelly. Want to get your N0 down, try some R07 SD!
Better games mean better EV and lower risk... less losings.
This is Blackjack MAIN, right? Why can't I use non-USA games as examples? Better rules mean better EVs and lower risks. If you don't want take higher physical risks playing better games at non-USA, you deserve the higher financial risks at America. I am pointing out a possibilities. You may not like it because you can't or don't want it but you should not limit my pointing out options. There are many good games at safe countries at distance less than NY flying to LV. APs like yourself limiting yourself at inferior games deserve the financilal fluctuations.
> How is finding better penetration going to prevent me
> from losing seven hands in a row when the true count
> is +5?
When the count is ramping up to five, it's bad for you as the small cards are coming out, right? When the count remains at five it's neutral for you because the cards coming out are mixed, right?
It is only when the count starts falling that you should expect to be winning becuase now the big cards are coming out, right?
Rising counts are not all that great. High counts that are falling to low counts is where you want to be.
Better penetration gives the shoe more time to kick out thoes big cards.
> When the count is ramping up to five, it's bad for you
> as the small cards are coming out, right? When the
> count remains at five it's neutral for you because the
> cards coming out are mixed, right?
> It is only when the count starts falling that you
> should expect to be winning becuase now the big cards
> are coming out, right?
> Rising counts are not all that great. High counts that
> are falling to low counts is where you want to be.
> Better penetration gives the shoe more time to kick
> out thoes big cards.
Hey SR, just wanted to point out that if the count were to go to +5 and remain there till the end of the shoe, you wouldn't actually be playing in neutral territory; you'd be playing with the advantage of 5 extra big cards per deck. Like if you have an RC of +25 with 5 decks left, you have your +5 TC, and then the drop would be, on average, +20 with 4 left, +15 with 3 left, +10 with 2 left, +5 with 1 left. So the TC wouldn't change, but you'd still get the advantage of 5 extra big cards coming out in every deck.
pm
Oh, I see plenty of high cards come out when the count is high. It's just that very often the dealer gets two tens, and I get a ten, a four, and a ten. Hardly ever the other way around. I keep gettin unlucky over and over. I can't see how better penetration is going to help prevent the dealer from getting two cards 20's over and over, never busting, which is what keeps happening to me. I know the odss don't state that that's what's supposed to be happening, but it does.
> When the count is ramping up to five, it's bad for you
> as the small cards are coming out, right? When the
> count remains at five it's neutral for you because the
> cards coming out are mixed, right?
> It is only when the count starts falling that you
> should expect to be winning becuase now the big cards
> are coming out, right?
> Rising counts are not all that great. High counts that
> are falling to low counts is where you want to be.
> Better penetration gives the shoe more time to kick
> out thoes big cards.
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