ShoelessD: New Cards

[ShoelessD]

It may well be selective memory, but I seem to do very well when opening a table with new cards. The count is never remarkable, and often around zero.

Does anyone else notice this?

Is it shuffle dependent, or confidence building selective memory?

[Parker]

> It may well be selective memory, but I seem to do very
> well when opening a table with new cards. The count is
> never remarkable, and often around zero.

> Does anyone else notice this?

> Is it shuffle dependent, or confidence building
> selective memory?

Probably the latter. I have seen many players (non-AP's) who believe that new cards are a Bad Thing, and will always leave a table for a few rounds after the cards are changed.

As someone who used to play a lot of single deck games (in which the cards are usually changed every hour), I have sat through a lot of card changes, and have never really noticed any trends one way or the other. Even if I had, I would not give it much credibility - small sample, selective memory and all that.

[mysticmn2]

Your post made me think of something else. On a recent trip, I was being rather obvious about ramping my bet up. It became my paranoia that "..what the heck, they always seem to find a reason to open up new cards, or bring someone in to re-fill the chip trays...". It seemed odd and happened at more than one place.

So is this a form of low-heat, delaying you so that someone can take a look at tape or something?

[Parker]

> Your post made me think of something else. On a recent
> trip, I was being rather obvious about ramping my bet
> up. It became my paranoia that "..what the heck,
> they always seem to find a reason to open up new
> cards, or bring someone in to re-fill the chip
> trays...". It seemed odd and happened at more
> than one place.

> So is this a form of low-heat, delaying you so that
> someone can take a look at tape or something?

I think you got right the first time: "my paranoia."

Unless you're playing for huge stakes, most casinos are content to "take a look at tape" after you have finished your session, when they have all the time in the world. If they don't like what they see, you get the hook the next time you try to play there.

It is not in the casino's best interest for them to unnecessarily slow down the game.

[Fred Renzey]

> Does anyone else notice this?

>snip: On the contrary, I've had some of my most horrific shoes playing with new cards that have just been washed and shuffled. Playing heads up and flat betting thru a stagnant, neutral shoe, I lost 33 units before the cut card mercifully came out. Spreading 1-to-12 units and again playing heads up, I lost 110 units playing six new decks where the count skyrocketed and just kept climbing.

[Sun Runner]

I think that you and ShoelessD both might be having selective memory failure.

Although I have heard others report that new cards resulted in poorer results (ShoelessD is the first I've heard to report the opposite) until they have been in play for several rounds, the math guys here will disagree.