S: Greetings Don, Le Vieux Monsieur

[S]

Greetings Don, Le Vieux Monsieur,

Can I ask you an "odd" question, s'il vous plait? What is the odd for this incident to happen:

1) The Asian dealer had have the bullets on top & the Big Ones underneath 5 times consecutively.

2) HiLO TCs were +9, 7, 6, 4, & 3 respectively (a really skewed case).

3) I was playing head on during a sunrise shift.

4) I was still ahead financially, thanks to the insurance rule of thumb at the >=+3TC.

Yes, the above crazy hands really did happen circa 1996, & I recorded the incident in my tracking system.

While I get your attention here, I like to ask you for another favor. It seems we get a hungry audiences here who love to read some old war stories (i.e., SSR got over 300 hits!). Will you share with us some of your old wonging stories on the Boardwalk, s'il vous plait?

Merci.

[Don Schlesinger]

> Greetings Don, Le Vieux Monsieur,

"Vieux," c'est quel age? :-)

> Can I ask you an "odd" question, s'il vous
> plait? What is the odds for this incident to happen:

> 1) The Asian dealer had have the bullets on top &
> the Big Ones underneath 5 times consecutively.

Depends on how many times you get to try to do this. Obviously, if you deal millions upon millions of hands, sooner or later, it may happen. But, if you shuffle six decks, deal off the top, and say, what are the odds of getting five consecutive naturals with the ace showing and a ten in the hole, then the answer is [(1/13)(96/311)]^5 = one chance in 132.5 million!

> 2) HiLO TCs were +9, 7, 6, 4, & 3 respectively (a
> really skewed case).

Oh. So, a little more likely! :-)

> 3) I was playing head on during a sunrise shift.

So???

> 4) I was still ahead financially, thanks to the
> insurance rule of thumb at the >=+3TC.

Good thing you weren't playing in London! :-)

> Yes, the above crazy hands really did happen circa
> 1996, & I recorded the incident in my tracking
> system.

Quite remarkable, if no cheating involved.

> While I get your attention here, I like to ask you for
> another favor. It seems we get a hungry audiences here
> who love to read some old war stories (i.e., SSR got
> over 300 hits!). Will you share with us some of your
> old wonging stories on the Boardwalk, s'il vous plait?

> Merci.

Probably not here, right now. One day, maybe. Meanwhile BJA3, chapter one, will have to do.

Don

[S]

Yikes, I survived against the odd of one chance in 132.5 million! The Almighty definitely has a big plan for me, lol.

Don, thanks. It's nice to know that I beat that monstrous odd.

The math in my mind seems to be really misleading. When playing heads up, I would think it's 50-50 chance of getting the bj, that is, either the dealer or I get it, assuming 1 bj per round. So it seems the formula for receiving bj, 5 times in the roll, would be something like this:

"Commonsense math":

  

1st bj                0.5  

2nd                   0.5 times 0.5  

3rd                   0.5 times 0.5 times 0.5  

4th                   0.5 times 0.5 times 0.5 times 0.5  

5th bj consecutively  0.5 times 0.5 times 0.5 times 0.5 times 0.5   

The odd (based on the commonsense math) would be 1.5625% of the time
that the dealer would make the 5 bjs on the roll, and 98.47375% of the time that he would not.

I think most laymen probably understand the odd of 1.5625% of the time that the dealer would make the 5 bjs on the roll, but they would have a hard time to under the monstrous odd of one chance in 132.5 million...given the fact that most laymen have seen some dealer pulls some bjs 2 or 3 time in a round once a while.

Don, I'm not challenging your math. Of course, you are right, and I trust your math. It just seems quite a big difference between 1.5625% vs one chance in 132.5 million! A good scenario for the misconception would be like flipping a coin. Let's say that a coin comes up 10,000 heads, & the odd for the tail coming up seems to be better... because the tail is way... way...way... over due, but in fact, the odd remains 50-50 for head or tail! Go figure...reality vs wishful thinking!

[Don Schlesinger]

Why would you think that the dealer should get a BJ 50% of the time? You or he each have a 50% chance of being the one to experience the streak, but 50% has nothing to do with the calculation of getting five naturals in a row.

Again, the odds I quoted are for shuffling a pack and attempting to get five consecutive naturals (ace up, no less!), from the very first deal. But, you've been playing BJ for ages, watching, maybe, millions of hands. So, the dealer has been trying for this streak millions of times. When you finally witness it, you can't just say, "I saw a 1 in 132 million event." Do you understand why?

Don

[Magician]

> Again, the odds I quoted are for shuffling a pack and
> attempting to get five consecutive naturals (ace up,
> no less!), from the very first deal.

Aren't they actually the odds for getting five ace-up naturals from five separate freshly shuffled packs? For five ace-up naturals from the same deck we have,

(24/312)(96/311)(23/310)(95/309)(22/308)(94/307)(21/306)(93/305)(20/304)(92/303) = almost 1 in 202 million

[Don Schlesinger]

> Aren't they actually the odds for getting five ace-up
> naturals from five separate freshly shuffled packs?
> For five ace-up naturals from the same deck we have,

(24/312)(96/311)(23/310)(95/309)(22/308)(94/307)(21/306)(93/305)(20/304)(92/303)
> = almost 1 in 202 million

Yes, you're absolutely right. Sorry about that. Something made me think we were talking about a CSM, but that wasn't mentioned anyway. My error.

Don

[Wolverine]

We had this discussion in another thread about 3 months ago regarding a witnessed streak of 4 dealer blackjacks in a row (no specification regarding ace or ten up). If you are Don's Domain member, you can read about it here.

This stuff just happens. The bumper sticker says so.

Probabilities of 4 blackjacks by the dealer