MJ: Eliot Jacobson consulting for casinos...

[Parker]

To those of us who have been around a while, this really comes as no big shock. When Eliot first got involved with advantage play, he favored cooperation with the casinos. He once rather famously sent his resume to a casino at which he regularily played.

Then he got thrown out of a few casinos. :-)

He has always been more about self-promotion than serious advantage play (as Jerry Seinfeld might say, "Not that there's anything wrong with that"). I mean, how many serious AP's post under their real name and have their photo prominently displayed on their website? I doubt that there were many places where he could play unmolested, at least not for any serious stakes.

I don't really see this as any big deal. As several people have pointed out, Wong, Snyder, etc., have done consulting at one time or another. Then there is Max Rubin, heavily involved with Barona casino, yet AP's flock to his Blackjack Ball every year.

I also don't find the "Learn how and when to back-off and/or bar patrons" bullet on the linked website particularily threatening. After all, if a casino were to ask me about this (fat chance!), I would tell them that they are wasting entirely too much time and resources on low/mid-level counters who represent no threat to their bottom lines. Also, "how" might include the importance of respecting player's rights and avoiding abuses.

I do find it rather odd, as one poster mentioned, that he has chosen to retain the "cardcounter.com" website for this new endeavor. The site had contained a useful archive of information regarding various AP-related court cases, which is now apparently gone forever. Nonetheless, he owns the domain and has the right to do whatever he wishes with it.

Until he gives me a reason to do otherwise, I wish him the best.

[AutomaticMonkey]

> ...Arnold Snyder did some
> work on some side-bets, including the super 7's bet,
> making them unbeatable by professional gamblers...

Actually no, Super 7's is one of the few sidebets beatable by straight counting. (Eliot detailed exactly how to do this in his book!) Only problem is, it's only a dollar sidebet, so if you're betting more than a $5 unit the increase in EV really isn't worth sidecounting 7's for, unless you have some other reason to sidecount 7's. However, +EV is +EV, and I consider that bet to be a little present from Arnold to the red chippers as well as something that gives the casinos more money for us to take. Win-win.

[MJ]

[Norm Wattenberger]

To my knowledge, the only people that have sold BJ name and address databases are Canfield and Snyder. Such databases would be of value to someone selling BJ goods; but would be of questionable value to a casino. I could be wrong but I don't believe private forum databases include posting handles. So you could not easily identify a poster in a DB. My CV database contains just under 10,000 names and addresses. I can't imagine what a casino would do with this. In any case, it ain't for sale. My privacy policy can be found at http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-privacy.htm. Other policies at http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-odds.htm.


Serious Blackjack Software

QFIT Privacy Policy

[Dr M J Seele]

> Actually no, Super 7's is one of the few sidebets
> beatable by straight counting. (Eliot detailed exactly
> how to do this in his book!) Only problem is, it's
> only a dollar sidebet, so if you're betting more than
> a $5 unit the increase in EV really isn't worth
> sidecounting 7's for, unless you have some other
> reason to sidecount 7's. However, +EV is +EV, and I
> consider that bet to be a little present from Arnold
> to the red chippers as well as something that gives
> the casinos more money for us to take. Win-win.

I don't think it is a good idea for red chippers to bet super 7's. The variance is way too high because most of the EV is tied up in what is basically a jackpot. So, if you have a red chip bank you don't have the bankroll to justify a 7's bet. If you have a bigger bank, you get a crappy return on investment.

[Ouchez]

> I simply can't believe it!!! I went over to his
> website and saw the links. Professor Jacobson is now a
> consultant for the casinos! I NEVER WOULD HAVE GUESSED
> IT!!!!

> I wonder if he will try and play both sides of the
> fence. Then again that is what Michael Shackelford
> does, and people seem to have a lot of respect for
> him. Perhaps Mayor will not lose credibility in the
> face of APs.

> Anybody have any thoughts on this turn surprising turn
> of events? If Mayor is helping out the casinos, no
> telling who will be next....

> MJ

of Advantage Play.

It is all about "earning the money" and if you expect loyalty and "community" from one AP to another to transcend, "earning the money", you had better wake up. Now this may be different if an AP has a close personal friendship with another AP, there is always exceptions to the rule, within limits.

Ouchez

[Eliot Jacobson]

Greetings,

There has been posts about this all over the place in the last few days, I am choosing to respond here for very personal reasons.

It is true that I have been doing game evaluation for the last couple of months, and have been really enjoying it. "Game evaluation" means to write code, figure out the house edge, write reports, talk with the game developers about their games, and ultimately try and guide them to a successful product that a casino might lease. My first client was October of last year. My skills have a huge arrow pointing towards this type of work.

I decided that I wanted to do consulting for game developers about a little over a year ago, at which time I joined Compton Dancer Consulting as a "gaming analyst". It was a perfect fit. I needed the backbone of a big name consulting company to give me credibility to get started. They've been great. You may have seen that site, but if not, www.compdance.com (CDC). CDC has asked me to do some other work as well, none of which has anything to do with advantage play or card counting -- primarily it has been market research. I also write articles for a newsletter for them, one of which is posted on their website.

I went to G2E this last year and contacted a number of game developers (Shuffle Master, Progressive, etc.) advertising my services. Recently I have been getting referrals and my plate is nearly full with this work.

It has been the most fun I have had in my working life doing this analysis -- I am combining my mathematics with my computer programming skills, with my ability to understand what it takes for a game to sell in a casino. And, I'm making some $$$ too.

Shortly after the time I made this decision (about a year ago), I contacted my close friends in the AP community and told each of them about this, giving them warning that at some unknown future point this might be a problem. Some of them politely let me know that we could no longer have a relationship. Most are still very close friends to this day. Some APs who are just now finding out have responded with anger, indignance, or sarcasm and there's nothing I can do about this, nor do I want to participate in those discussions. This will be my one and only post on the matter. Life is too short to spend it trying to smooth impossibly rough waters.

As an aside, I tried to sell CC.com several times. Three years ago someone stepped in to manage it for me. Then I put it up on ebay last June. First for 10k, then for 5k. Finally, I just decided to change it to what I needed it to be for right now -- a quick and dirty professional front end. If someone comes along and wants to pay my price for the domain name, it's gone. The content that is not copyright (or owned by someone else) is also up for grabs. In the mean time, the site is still in transition, but I have been getting some customers and needed something there in the interim. I am in the process of hiring a professional web site designer to get it right (if it doesn't sell).

Several years ago, Stanford Wong said to me: "Eliot, you've proven to yourself that you can beat these games, there's nothing left for you at the tables." He was right, but it took me 3 more years to get it. Beating casino games was an academic exercise for me. Then Arnold Snyder wrote his essay about the most important quality of an AP: love. I don't love playing. I do love analyzing games. And there you go... I am now doing what I love to do, and doing it pretty well.

What you might not know is how large a role game playing has in my life. I still play chess 2-4 hours every day (I'm rated just over 2100). I went to the nationals twice in bridge. Last year I won a bridge tournament with over 150 master level players. I ran a GO club for years in Ohio -- got up to a 2 kyu level (not that great). I used to play backgammon every day for several hours. I worked hard at scrabble, gin rummy, and checkers (not achieving much). Then I went on to casino games, and got some decent skills at several of them. My life has always involved playing games, the game doesn't matter. Now I get to have even more fun -- designing and evaluating games.

I've dropped back my teaching to 44% at UCSB. This morning I am sitting at home, with a laptop on my kitchen table, looking out the window at a beautiful Southern California morning, NPR on in the background, sipping coffee, and writing code. Shortly, I'll log on to fics.org and play a few games of chess...

Life is good.

With best regards,

--Eliot

[Praying Mantis]

> To my knowledge, the only people that have sold BJ
> name and address databases are Canfield and Snyder.

In what capacity?

> Such databases would be of value to someone selling BJ
> goods; but would be of questionable value to a casino.

Are you serious? An AP website has a database full of APs and that database would NOT be of value to a casino?

Let me get this...casinos do NOT like to lose money. If they didn't feel that APs posed a threat to their bottom line, they sure take a lot of unbelievable positions to stop them! Ask anyone in surveillance, the eye's main job is to watch employee theft and lookout for counters and other APs.

> I could be wrong but I don't believe private forum
> databases include posting handles. So you could not
> easily identify a poster in a DB. My CV database > contains just under 10,000 names and addresses. I
> can't imagine what a casino would do with this.

So we have a player that puts up a website devoted to advantage play, and all kinds of conversations are discussed dealing with AP. Now that person goes to the 'dark side' and STILL has that database on his server. You really expect us to believe his new employer or employer's (since he's a consultant to many casinos)wouldn't be interested in the REAL names behind the handles?

> In any case, it ain't for sale. My privacy policy can be
> found at http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-privacy.htm.

Maybe yours isn't for sale, but who's to say that Eliot's isn't?.... Eliot? Kind of hard to trust what he says, now, isn't it?

Regards,
PM

[Don Schlesinger]

We're happy that you're happy, Eliot, but your answer is somewhat naive and begs the question. There is a proverb, "When you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas."

The consulting that you now do puts you smack in the middle of dealing with casino management. Let us suppose that you do your job well and that these folks love you and your work. You develop relationships, and, sooner or later, you're asked to do more than just figure out the odds of a game. Instead, you're asked to develop the next MindPlay, or whatever.

And, they throw a contract at you with a s**tload of zeros on it.

What will be your response?

That is a rhetorical question, by the way. Most of us already know the answer.

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

1. I certainly did not say that casinos do not wish to make money or are not interested in APs.

2. One shouldn't post any identifying information on recently visited locations that would allow them to be physically id'ed anyhow on any forum - no matter how "secret."

3. Did anyone give Eliot his/her real name and address? I don't remember being asked for mine.

I certainly believe that paranoia is of great value to APs and am more paranoid than most. Which is why I think it disgusting that a forum has dozens of posts talking about my hair that the webmaster refuses to remove. Some people consider this humorous. (Some people laugh uncontrollably at fart jokes.) I believe that each of us has the right to choose what info he makes available to whom because only each individual knows what info is sensitive. Yes, stay vigilant. I'm only saying that the databases that exist are probably of less value than one might think. If they had pictures that would be a different story. Remember people go to GC parties and as Parker said, APs flock to the BJ Ball run by a counter-catcher where you are visible face-to-face. I've been asked many times (and always refused) to consult for the dark side. But no casino has asked for my database.

[Praying Mantis]

> 3. Did anyone give Eliot his/her real name and
> address? I don't remember being asked for mine.

Yes, I know I did. I purchased his book on his website and just like here, in order to get the item sent to you, you pay with a credit card that's attached to your address. Now, I don't know how many did give Eliot their real names, but there are many, I'm sure that has.

>Yes, stay vigilant. I'm
> only saying that the databases that exist are probably
> of less value than one might think. If they had
> pictures that would be a different story. Remember
> people go to GC parties and as Parker said, APs flock
> to the BJ Ball run by a counter-catcher where you are
> visible face-to-face. I've been asked many times (and
> always refused) to consult for the dark side. But no
> casino has asked for my database.

Who needs pictures? Casinos can just match up the names with their player's cards. Then when you come in, they get all the 3 dimensional pics they want...then, they can you.

I appreciate you not consulting with the dark side, hopefully, you never will...and I'm not saying that Eliot will expose fellow players. It is a topic that needs to be discussed, and is definitely something to think about.

Regards,
PM

[Praying Mantis]

> There has been posts about this all over the place in
> the last few days, I am choosing to respond here for
> very personal reasons.

Eliot,

This is basically the same post you made at BJ21, with the exception of a few sentences that you conviently omitted. Why did you bust that post at BJ21?

I think Don makes a good point. How are we to trust that our personal information that you now have in your possession will not become part of casino databases across the land? Just curious.

Regards,
PM

[Norm Wattenberger]

> Yes, I know I did. I purchased his book on his website
> and just like here, in order to get the item sent to
> you, you pay with a credit card that's attached to
> your address. Now, I don't know how many did give
> Eliot their real names, but there are many, I'm sure
> that has.

Ahhh. There was no need to give name or address to post. And the other books and software sold on his site actually passed directly through to BJ21. I don't know how he handled his own book purchases. But, I wouldn't think it would be attached in any way to posts.

> Who needs pictures? Casinos can just match up the
> names with their player's cards. Then when you come
> in, they get all the 3 dimensional pics they
> want...then, they can you.

Sounds simple. But they certainly don't care about everyone that has ever posted or bought a book. And the forum software I've looked at doesn't contain handles in the name/address files. The DB contains the passwords used to get to the forum directory. Now it would be possible to find the password used for a particular post and then look that up in the DB and then use that against player cards. But that's a lot of work considering the architecture behind these "databases" is antique. So yes there is a potential problem. Just hard to believe anyone is going through the effort required to bother someone they don't even know is making a profit.

> I appreciate you not consulting with the dark side,
> hopefully, you never will...and I'm not saying that
> Eliot will expose fellow players. It is a topic that
> needs to be discussed, and is definitely something to
> think about.

I agree. But we are far more vulnerable when playing or physically meeting someone. You can never tell if the long-time AP you chat with at a bar is really a long-time casino employee. It happens. I'll tell you a funny one. About a year ago someone posted anonymously on BJ21 GC that it is dangerous to post at AP.com because your PC will be somehow tracked. There was a big brouhaha as it was an anonymous (and absurd) attack and should have been deleted. Stanford refused to remove the post indicating it was a legitimate customer complaint and saying it was a long-term GC member. (Of course he looked in his database to get this info.) Having struck a blow against this site; the poster was admitted into another site's private "player's forum." After being admitted into the private club, he was later caught trying to sell info about the other members of the site to a casino.

Or as the snake said "You knew I was a snake when you picked me up."