Frustrated: When does it become "long term?"

[Frustrated]

OK, I am getting quite frustrated. I have been counting for a year and a half now, and have lost a lot of money during that time. I average three nights a week, averaging four hours per night. I was actually naive enough to believe that that was long term. I can't count the number of times that I have lost five or more hands in a row while the count was high. That keeps happening to me over and over.

Often I am playing, and the dealer will keep getting two card twenties over and over again when the count it high. Often when I'm playing, The dealer will have a ten showing every time the count is high, and I am forced to hit my stiffs. Of course, since the count is high, I usually bust. There have been numerous times when the dealer never busts when the count is high. And the double downs are killing me. If I have an 11, the dealer has a 10 showing, the true count is +2 or higher, it's practically a guarantee that I will lose the hand. I still double anyway.

Now, I understood from the beginning, that these kind of things would happen, but more often than not?

I have had some good sessions, some very good sessions, but the bad sessions are outnumbering the good sessions.

I play six deck shoes, DOA, DAS, no surrender. Penetration is 75% to 83%. More often at 75%. It's hard to find 83%, though I do find it sometimes. I have had many terrible sessions when penetration is at 83%.

I use hi-lo with the illustrious 18, with the exception being that I never split tens. I never drop my bet when the count is high, even after losing a couple of hands. There are many times I wish I had.

Two nights ago, I lost ten hands in a row while the count was high. Last night the same thing happened.

So, my only question is, how long does it take for the "long term" to kick in?

[Sun Runner]

Man oh man. If it were not for bad luck seems you'd have no luck at all.

> So, my only question is, how long does it take for the
> "long term" to kick in?

Four hours a night, three nights a week, for eighteen months .. depending on how full the tables are (how many hands you get dealt an hour) you probably passed the 'long term' some time ago.

Are you setting and playing for four hours at a time or do you wong in/out? Are you betting properly? What kinda of spread do you get away with on this game?

Much of what you describe is pretty typical.

[VerdugoJohn]

> OK, I am getting quite frustrated. I have been
> counting for a year and a half now, and have lost a
> lot of money during that time. I average three nights
> a week, averaging four hours per night. I was actually
> naive enough to believe that that was long term. I
> can't count the number of times that I have lost five
> or more hands in a row while the count was high. That
> keeps happening to me over and over.

I believe many experts feel that long term begins when Expected Value exceeds the Standard Deviation, or what is refered to as N0. As such, that varies depending upon bet spread, rules, penetration, counting system.

> Often I am playing, and the dealer will keep getting
> two card twenties over and over again when the count
> it high. Often when I'm playing, The dealer will have
> a ten showing every time the count is high, and I am
> forced to hit my stiffs. Of course, since the count is
> high, I usually bust. There have been numerous times
> when the dealer never busts when the count is high.
> And the double downs are killing me. If I have an 11,
> the dealer has a 10 showing, the true count is +2 or
> higher, it's practically a guarantee that I will lose
> the hand. I still double anyway.

Good thing you continue to double...trust the math...I use practice sessions with Casino Verite on games i play in real casinos to benchmark playing experience...i find if I win more than 43% of the bets while the dealer wins less than 48% i will win as betting spreads on high counts, double downs, blackjacks will compensate for the more frequent losses...you game may not be as favorable rulewise, although penetration seems better for you

> Now, I understood from the beginning, that these kind
> of things would happen, but more often than not?

I agree, it seems the unexpected is the expected..

> I have had some good sessions, some very good
> sessions, but the bad sessions are outnumbering the
> good sessions.

> I play six deck shoes, DOA, DAS, no surrender.
> Penetration is 75% to 83%. More often at 75%. It's
> hard to find 83%, though I do find it sometimes. I
> have had many terrible sessions when penetration is at
> 83%.

> I use hi-lo with the illustrious 18, with the
> exception being that I never split tens. I never drop
> my bet when the count is high, even after losing a
> couple of hands. There are many times I wish I had.

sounds strong...perhaps should add the additional 4 indices that will recover some of the loss by not splitting 10's--thus use the Catch 22 sans ten splits...

> Two nights ago, I lost ten hands in a row while the
> count was high. Last night the same thing happened.

I'm sure there have been times you have won ten hands in a row with the count at zero or negative...it happens too; we remember the big losses better though

> So, my only question is, how long does it take for the
> "long term" to kick in?

Again, I believe it depends on your playing strategy & rules...have you read Blackjack Attack 3? and Blackbelt in Blackjack? those will help plug any leaks in you game along with telling you how long it will take to double your bankroll/reach N0...

[Sonny]

> I can't count the number of times that I have lost five
> or more hands in a row while the count was high. That
> keeps happening to me over and over.

That is the nature of short term variance. You should not confuse that with the long run. There is no magical point where you will start winning every session, or even every month. Every hand is a new beginning towards the long run. The hand you played last year should have been paid off by now, but the hand you played last week is still a baby that has a lot of growing up to do. Anything can happen in any given session. You will continue to have large winning and losing sessions, but your results will begin to converge on your ecpected win rate.

> Now, I understood from the beginning, that these kind
> of things would happen, but more often than not?

Yup. You are going to lose more hands than you win, case closed.

> Penetration is 75% to 83%. More often at 75%. It's
> hard to find 83%, though I do find it sometimes. I
> have had many terrible sessions when penetration is at
> 83%.

The deeper the penetration, the larger the fluctuations are going to be. You will be seeing more positive counts and making more big bets so the variance will seem quite high.

> If I have an 11, the dealer has a 10 showing, the true
> count is +2 or higher, it's practically a guarantee that
> I will lose the hand. I still double anyway.

Good! You are a better player than most. You are obviously a strong, dedicated player. As long as you continue to play a winning game, like you are, things will turn around. Let's see how long it will take...

> So, my only question is, how long does it take for the
> "long term" to kick in?

If you know your EV and SD you can find how long the long run is (and many more fun facts) here:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/refer/N0.htm

http://www.qfit.com/CVRoRC.htm

http://www.qfit.com/CVTimeC.htm

http://www.bjmath.com/main.htm

The short term fluctuations are going to be crazy, especially playing a large spread at shoe games. That is just the nature of the game. As long as you have an adequate bankroll you should survive to see the other side of the normal curve. Just be sure to Wong out!

-Sonny-

[Myooligan]

Yikes. Sounds like you've just had some bad luck, although, as others have commented, the individual stories don't mean a whole lot. To really figure out if something is wrong, though, we need to know your final losses, in units.

I plugged in some numbers on the "actual" calculator on cvcxonline for you, but without knowing your loss in units, it's hard to say. But it should tell you what you're looking for. Anyway here are the numbers I plugged in (interpolated from BJA charts based on the game you described, play-all, at 1-12 spread) and what it told me:

3 x 4 x 100 x 52 x 1.5 = 93,600 hands
win/100 = 1.3
sd/100 = 31

Chance of an outcome greater than or equal to:
0u: 90.03%
-50u: 90.92%
-100u: 91.75%
-150u: 92.52%

So, according to what you've described, you've gotten a really tough break. I imagine you've done many self-examinations by now, so bad luck seems like the most likely culprit.

Sorry to hear about it. Let us know what you come up with, if you end up trying any of these online calcs.

> OK, I am getting quite frustrated. I have been
> counting for a year and a half now, and have lost a
> lot of money during that time. I average three nights
> a week, averaging four hours per night. I was actually
> naive enough to believe that that was long term. I
> can't count the number of times that I have lost five
> or more hands in a row while the count was high. That
> keeps happening to me over and over.

> Often I am playing, and the dealer will keep getting
> two card twenties over and over again when the count
> it high. Often when I'm playing, The dealer will have
> a ten showing every time the count is high, and I am
> forced to hit my stiffs. Of course, since the count is
> high, I usually bust. There have been numerous times
> when the dealer never busts when the count is high.
> And the double downs are killing me. If I have an 11,
> the dealer has a 10 showing, the true count is +2 or
> higher, it's practically a guarantee that I will lose
> the hand. I still double anyway.

> Now, I understood from the beginning, that these kind
> of things would happen, but more often than not?

> I have had some good sessions, some very good
> sessions, but the bad sessions are outnumbering the
> good sessions.

> I play six deck shoes, DOA, DAS, no surrender.
> Penetration is 75% to 83%. More often at 75%. It's
> hard to find 83%, though I do find it sometimes. I
> have had many terrible sessions when penetration is at
> 83%.

> I use hi-lo with the illustrious 18, with the
> exception being that I never split tens. I never drop
> my bet when the count is high, even after losing a
> couple of hands. There are many times I wish I had.

> Two nights ago, I lost ten hands in a row while the
> count was high. Last night the same thing happened.

> So, my only question is, how long does it take for the
> "long term" to kick in?

http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-calculator-c9.htm

[Mr. Lee]

> I believe many experts feel that long term begins when
> Expected Value exceeds the Standard Deviation, or what
> is refered to as N0. As such, that varies depending
> upon bet spread, rules, penetration, counting system.

> Good thing you continue to double...trust the math...I
> use practice sessions with Casino Verite on games i
> play in real casinos to benchmark playing
> experience...i find if I win more than 43% of the bets
> while the dealer wins less than 48% i will win as
> betting spreads on high counts, double downs,
> blackjacks will compensate for the more frequent
> losses...you game may not be as favorable rulewise,
> although penetration seems better for you

> I agree, it seems the unexpected is the expected..

> sounds strong...perhaps should add the additional 4
> indices that will recover some of the loss by not
> splitting 10's--thus use the Catch 22 sans ten
> splits...

> I'm sure there have been times you have won ten hands
> in a row with the count at zero or negative...it
> happens too; we remember the big losses better though

> Again, I believe it depends on your playing strategy
> & rules...have you read Blackjack Attack 3? and
> Blackbelt in Blackjack? those will help plug any leaks
> in you game along with telling you how long it will
> take to double your bankroll/reach N0...

You need ls or a pitch game to cut down the swings.

[Ouchez]

> OK, I am getting quite frustrated. I have been
> counting for a year and a half now, and have lost a
> lot of money during that time. I average three nights
> a week, averaging four hours per night. I was actually
> naive enough to believe that that was long term. I
> can't count the number of times that I have lost five
> or more hands in a row while the count was high. That
> keeps happening to me over and over.

Frustrated,
As SR says, "pretty typical", and that is the tragic part. I hope you can afford to lose the money you are playing with.

I am NOT a fan of 6 deckers especially with no surrender offered. Very few players can in *reality* beat these games and I think from the tone of your post you should switch to deep dealt dd or 4d, for a better chance of winning "long term".

If you can't find a real good game don't waste your money any longer.

A true AP will not play a sub-par game, he/she will simply walk.

Ouchez.

[Coug Fan]

I can calc the probability of your result if you would like (using BJRM). I need the following info:

- Number of hours played
- Net result in units
- Total tips paid in units
- Any other expenses that you consider as part of your BJ results in units
- Game rules (you indicated 6D, DOA, DAS, NSR, H17?)
- Pen / range of pen (you indicated 75% - 83%)
- Play approach (play-all?, wong-in/out points, etc)
- Bet spread in units

I can calculate the probablility assuming perfect play, we would expect that actual results would be worse.

[V-man]

> So, my only question is, how long does it take for the
> "long term" to kick in?

Even if you reach the 'long run' theoritically or practically, there is no guarantee that you would win.
Out of 100 perfect counters, there are about 5 who would lose his bank roll while trying. Hopely you are not one of them.
You have cranked in quite a bit of hours. I don't know what is the N0 for your game, but maybe in your case (a bit unlucky at start), you'd need to overcome 2 standard deviations. And how long does that take? about 4 times longer as it took to overcome 1 std dev, according to SR.
I have a lucky ploppy friend who play at about -1% house edge and she has played about 400 hours at the BJ table and still about 40k ahead (her average bet is about 250). This example maybe one of the rare lucky cases but it just proves to me that as an AP (played at about +1% edge), there is still no warranty for me after 500 hours (at least at my local game).
Keep playing. As I always said to wife "Bank roll Baby, bank roll ..."

[SpiderMan]

How many units are you down so far?

> OK, I am getting quite frustrated. I have been
> counting for a year and a half now, and have lost a
> lot of money during that time. I average three nights
> a week, averaging four hours per night. I was actually
> naive enough to believe that that was long term. I
> can't count the number of times that I have lost five
> or more hands in a row while the count was high. That
> keeps happening to me over and over.

> Often I am playing, and the dealer will keep getting
> two card twenties over and over again when the count
> it high. Often when I'm playing, The dealer will have
> a ten showing every time the count is high, and I am
> forced to hit my stiffs. Of course, since the count is
> high, I usually bust. There have been numerous times
> when the dealer never busts when the count is high.
> And the double downs are killing me. If I have an 11,
> the dealer has a 10 showing, the true count is +2 or
> higher, it's practically a guarantee that I will lose
> the hand. I still double anyway.

> Now, I understood from the beginning, that these kind
> of things would happen, but more often than not?

> I have had some good sessions, some very good
> sessions, but the bad sessions are outnumbering the
> good sessions.

> I play six deck shoes, DOA, DAS, no surrender.
> Penetration is 75% to 83%. More often at 75%. It's
> hard to find 83%, though I do find it sometimes. I
> have had many terrible sessions when penetration is at
> 83%.

> I use hi-lo with the illustrious 18, with the
> exception being that I never split tens. I never drop
> my bet when the count is high, even after losing a
> couple of hands. There are many times I wish I had.

> Two nights ago, I lost ten hands in a row while the
> count was high. Last night the same thing happened.

> So, my only question is, how long does it take for the
> "long term" to kick in?

[Little Ben]

Hi there. I've been counting about the same amount of time as you have. I've read the books, learnt the charts and dedicate an hour a night to my hi-lo count. Through all this I have often found myself head-butting the wall in the casino bathroom, often to cure my depression I steal complementary matches and coffee (but thats another story).

I was given advice by a fellow counter I met by the bar one night. I had an 'ok to good' night, but the Australian man at the bar had won about 1500 pounds (over 3000 dollars). He said that British casino's aren't ready and don't expect a counter to walk in, the management don't expect people to be that bright and the staff are often too dumb to notice. Hence the reason why he had won so much in such a short space of time.

Anyway I asked him his secret...He said there were two ways to count cards; the American way and the Aussie way. The Aussie way basically consisted of sitting in third base and letting the dealer bust. If the count was high and the dealer had to take a card, the Aussie would often pass and let the dealer have the 10's. If the count was low the Aussie would access the dealer's cards and aim to get higher without busting.

As I said, I'm still learning but I've tried his method with success. I'm not overly mathematical so the fact that it's worked without me weighing-up my advantage to the nearest decimal point certainly does take the strain off my game. All I have to do is work out the count and keep it.

Cheers.

Little Ben

P.s. Please don't hunt me down if this doesn't work for you. It's a piece of advise I thought i'd try.

[Parker]

As the count increases, the dealer will become more likely to bust, regardless of how you play your hand (or where you're sitting). There are indexes for standing on stiff hands vs strong dealer upcards. If you are standing on your stiffs below the index in order to "let the dealer have the 10's" then you are leaving money on the table.

The "Aussie Way" sounds more like the "ploppy way."

The fact that you saw him win one session with it, and that it may have worked for you for a short time, is nothing more than positive variance. In other words, you/he got lucky.

[Don Schlesinger]

> As the count increases, the dealer will become more
> likely to bust,

Are you sure? :-)

What you meant to write was, "As the count increases, if the dealer shows a card below 7, he is more likely to break," right? :-)

Stop taking those shortcuts! :-)

Don