Designated Driver: Quitting while you're ahead or losing before you even play.

[Parker]

I have largely stayed out of this thread, primarily because you have received some excellent advice, to which there is not a great deal I can add. However, I would like to make a couple of comments.

> I agree with you on the above(top) points.
> Are you saying that I am wrong in thinking that
> playing a slot machine can be profitable, even when
> going for a large payout using leverage(casino money
> from other winnings)?

Leverage? Once you have won the money, it is yours and should be treated accordingly. Casinos love to hear people who win a bit saying "I can bet bigger now because I'm playing with the house's money."

> If this is the case, then what
> are all of the slot machine books and systems(a couple
> of which you carry on this site) preaching? Money
> management: How to hold onto your money longer while
> you will inevitably lose it all anyway?

Slot machines are negative expectation games. Play them long enough, and you will indeed lose all your money. Any book that purports to present a winning "system" for slots is a scam.

The slot books we carry do not make any such claims. Rather, they do indeed teach how to make your money last as long as possible. More importantly, they dispel many of the myths surrounding slot machines (Examples: The casinos "tighten up" the machines on busy weekends, a machine that has just paid a big jackpot is now less likely to pay, etc.).

> Letting alone my uncle for now, I have heard stories
> from some others who have won playing the slot
> machines. My grandmother and aunt to start with, along
> with a few others.

I've heard stories of people being abducted by aliens. Doesn't mean I believe them.

> Now don't get me wrong, I wasn't planning on making
> this my muse(game of choice) and was only going to
> play to have the off shot at winning big, which I do
> not see to be possible playing either BJ or VP; even
> with huge bets.

Bless you. It is precisely that attitude that keeps the casino raking in the money, and thus providing opportunities for advantage players (like me) who care to look for and exploit them.

> I think even an experienced and well
> bankrolled AP would have a hard time winning eight
> figures(i.e. $10,000,000) no matter how long they
> played.

Nor do they expect to. However, I personally know a number of pros who have been earning annual incomes well into 6 figures for many years, in addition to enjoying a lifestyle (comped suites, gourmet meals, etc.) that most people only dream about.

> Anybody who is into gambling, AP or not is in it for
> the money, or it is not gambling.

"Gamblers" do it for the adrenaline rush. Most AP's do not consider themselves gamblers.

> Can you honestly tell me that during those long losing
> sessions you don't ever question the validity of BJ
> theory?

Yes, I can honestly tell you that. Actually, a thorough understanding of BJ theory tells me that long losing sessions are inevitable.

[Designated Driver]

> I have largely stayed out of this thread, primarily
> because you have received some excellent advice, to
> which there is not a great deal I can add. However, I
> would like to make a couple of comments.

> Leverage? Once you have won the money, it is yours
> and should be treated accordingly. Casinos love to
> hear people who win a bit saying "I can bet
> bigger now because I'm playing with the house's
> money."

Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the house's money.

> Slot machines are negative expectation games. Play
> them long enough, and you will indeed lose all your
> money. Any book that purports to present a winning
> "system" for slots is a scam.

Then, in the mindset of an AP...Why play at all?

Precisely the point you were trying to make right. :-)

> The slot books we carry do not make any such claims.
> Rather, they do indeed teach how to make your money
> last as long as possible. More importantly, they
> dispel many of the myths surrounding slot machines
> (Examples: The casinos "tighten up" the
> machines on busy weekends, a machine that has just
> paid a big jackpot is now less likely to pay, etc.).

Yes, but do they actually teach you how to win? I have bought one(John Robison's) and have read the other(borrowed from the library) and in my humble opinion no, they do not and the time and money invested might have been better spent elsewhere. And as for dispelling those "myths", do people actually believe in such rediculous things, it seems like sheer nonsense to me.

> I've heard stories of people being abducted by aliens.
> Doesn't mean I believe them.

Me neither. But it makes you wonder doesn't it? Is it not possible to be abducted by aliens, or actually win at the slots?

> Bless you. It is precisely that attitude that keeps
> the casino raking in the money, and thus providing
> opportunities for advantage players (like me) who care
> to look for and exploit them.

You're welcome. :-)

> Nor do they expect to. However, I personally know a
> number of pros who have been earning annual incomes
> well into 6 figures for many years, in addition to
> enjoying a lifestyle (comped suites, gourmet meals,
> etc.) that most people only dream about.

A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for what I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison here, but they are no better than doctors making their tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as they labor for their earnings. A truly rich person gets paid a lot more to do nothing at all. Not to imply that I am lazy or anything, but only that I do not see the people above as true winners.

> "Gamblers" do it for the adrenaline rush.
> Most AP's do not consider themselves gamblers.

The point I was trying to make is that everyone is playing for the money, whether you call it "gambling", "advantage play", or any other name, the goal is still the same: to win the casino's money.

> Yes, I can honestly tell you that. Actually, a
> thorough understanding of BJ theory tells me that long
> losing sessions are inevitable.

Honestly then, why play? Why would you thoroughly learn the details of how to play a game only to be able to lose?

Just a few questions to your comments.
Desi. D.

[thanks4thefish]

[Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were
going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the
house's money.]

Sigh...what Parker is telling you is that it's not the house's money it's yours. Similarly if you find $100 in the parking lot it's yours, & should rationally be treated as if it was earned.

[A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for what
I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison
here, but they are no better than doctors making their
tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as
they labor for their earnings.]

Exactly, now you've got it!

BJ is most likely the wrong career path for you, unless you look at it like many ambitious APs, as a way of building a bankroll for more profitable ventures.

For me, having only completed high school, no-one seems willing to pay me this 'paltry' sum. I'm happy to labour for this, not take any crap from bosses & work my own hours.

Card counting at best for most is ekeing out a living.

Only a small % like myself even achieve what you sneer at!

Only a minute %, like high stake team leaders, or globe trotting hi stake players would clear more than this. (I'm guessing here, as I'm working on second hand info, not knowing any of them personally)

A truly rich person gets paid a lot more to do nothing at all. Not to simply that I am lazy or anything, but only that I do not see the people above as true winners.]

I'm sad for you then. I do not judge peoples success by how much they make. I would consider someone who loves to surf or play music, deriving their income from same to be successful. Ceratinly more so than say Packer who just passed away, who spent just about every waking moment working.

My AP mentor earns more than me each year, a feat considering my income also takes into account my wife's, but he is single & his personal life always in a state of crisis. I do not consider him to be leading a successful life, & certainly do not envy him.

Further I have purchased & nearly paid a rather nice house, (by my standards, certainly not yours!) over seven years, whilst he has squandered most of his earnings.

I don't expect this to impress you by the way, as I know it is way below your target, but I am hell happy with it.

At 30 I was lonely, broke & in debt. Now I am married, 2 great kids, financially stable & doing work I enjoy..well as much as anyone can enjoy working anyway

I have the bankroll & I'd like to think the potential to make more, but at the expense of my comfortable family life, the price is too high.

Your questions as to the likelihood of winning can largely be answered by purchasing a sim, & learning to both use it, & interpret the results.

That you don't trust computers, or the validity of the written works of brilliant professors & mathematicians smacks of arrogance to me.

You mentioned you've read Million $ BJ. One of the biggest impressions I took from that book is his explanation of why you split 8's against a 10, ie because computer simulations show you will make more money doing this than anything else.

As much as BJ theory interests me, I always fall back on Uston's logic of why to play a hand a particular way, & extend that logic to everything BJ.

My benchmark ROR is Uston's 5% (for a renewable bankroll),
I sim my game accordingly & play whatever the sim dictates.

If you sense any intolerance in the answers, it's likely because they have all been presented to you, but you have not yet heard anything you want to hear.

In a nutshell, unless you have the bankroll & management skills to run a highly successful team, you won't see the sort of dollars you seem to want from this game. Even if you do possess these, in today's climate it would be an almost impossible feat.

You would do much better looking at sports betting or horse racing, where the % are higher, & the profits limited only to your bankroll & ability.

[Designated Driver]

> [Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were
> going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the
> house's money.]

> Sigh...what Parker is telling you is that it's not the
> house's money it's yours. Similarly if you find $100
> in the parking lot it's yours, & should rationally
> be treated as if it was earned.

I know. :-)

> [A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for
> what
> I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison
> here, but they are no better than doctors making their
> tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as
> they labor for their earnings.]

> Exactly, now you've got it!

> BJ is most likely the wrong career path for you,
> unless you look at it like many ambitious APs, as a
> way of building a bankroll for more profitable
> ventures.

I hope to start my own business some day. Maybe it'll be a casino, for players like me. :-)

> For me, having only completed high school, no-one
> seems willing to pay me this 'paltry' sum. I'm happy
> to labour for this, not take any crap from bosses
> & work my own hours.

> Card counting at best for most is ekeing out a living.

> Only a small % like myself even achieve what you sneer
> at!

I don't sneer at it, only sneeze.

> Only a minute %, like high stake team leaders, or
> globe trotting hi stake players would clear more than
> this. (I'm guessing here, as I'm working on second
> hand info, not knowing any of them personally)

> A truly rich person gets paid a lot more to do nothing
> at all. Not to simply that I am lazy or anything, but
> only that I do not see the people above as true
> winners.]

> I'm sad for you then. I do not judge peoples success
> by how much they make. I would consider someone who
> loves to surf or play music, deriving their income
> from same to be successful. Ceratinly more so than say
> Packer who just passed away, who spent just about
> every waking moment working.

> My AP mentor earns more than me each year, a feat
> considering my income also takes into account my
> wife's, but he is single & his personal life
> always in a state of crisis. I do not consider him to
> be leading a successful life, & certainly do not
> envy him.

Success in life is happiness. :-)
Rather unfortunate as I am a chronic depressive. :-(

> Further I have purchased & nearly paid a rather
> nice house, (by my standards, certainly not yours!)
> over seven years, whilst he has squandered most of his
> earnings.

> I don't expect this to impress you by the way, as I
> know it is way below your target, but I am hell happy
> with it.

Considering that I still live at home with my parents(for now), I am actually quite impressed and perhaps even a little envious.

> At 30 I was lonely, broke & in debt. Now I am
> married, 2 great kids, financially stable & doing
> work I enjoy..well as much as anyone can enjoy working
> anyway

> I have the bankroll & I'd like to think the
> potential to make more, but at the expense of my
> comfortable family life, the price is too high.

> Your questions as to the likelihood of winning can
> largely be answered by purchasing a sim, &
> learning to both use it, & interpret the results.

> That you don't trust computers, or the validity of the
> written works of brilliant professors &
> mathematicians smacks of arrogance to me.

I object. I am not arrogant, but pompous.

> You mentioned you've read Million $ BJ. One of the
> biggest impressions I took from that book is his
> explanation of why you split 8's against a 10, ie
> because computer simulations show you will make more
> money doing this than anything else.

> As much as BJ theory interests me, I always fall back
> on Uston's logic of why to play a hand a particular
> way, & extend that logic to everything BJ.

> My benchmark ROR is Uston's 5% (for a renewable
> bankroll),
> I sim my game accordingly & play whatever the sim
> dictates.

> If you sense any intolerance in the answers, it's
> likely because they have all been presented to you,
> but you have not yet heard anything you want to hear.

Sometimes I don't hear anything at all.

> In a nutshell, unless you have the bankroll &
> management skills to run a highly successful team, you
> won't see the sort of dollars you seem to want from
> this game. Even if you do possess these, in today's
> climate it would be an almost impossible feat.

If I possessed the above, I would probably start my own business, whatever that is.

And actually, if I leave with a penny more than I started with, I will be exuberant.

> You would do much better looking at sports betting or
> horse racing, where the % are higher, & the
> profits limited only to your bankroll & ability.

Two mighty big limitations.

Thanks 4 the "last words" fish,
Desi. D.

[Parker]

> Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were
> going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the
> house's money.

The house's money is all those chips in the dealer's chip tray. If you start playing with that, they will get really, really upset.

> Yes, but do they actually teach you how to win? I have
> bought one(John Robison's) and have read the
> other(borrowed from the library) and in my humble
> opinion no, they do not and the time and money
> invested might have been better spent elsewhere. And
> as for dispelling those "myths", do people
> actually believe in such rediculous things, it seems
> like sheer nonsense to me.

They do. It is.

> Me neither. But it makes you wonder doesn't it? Is it
> not possible to be abducted by aliens, or actually win
> at the slots?

Actually, the odds of being abducted by aliens and of winning the top MegaBucks jackpot are almost identical.

> A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for what
> I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison
> here, but they are no better than doctors making their
> tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as
> they labor for their earnings. A truly rich person
> gets paid a lot more to do nothing at all. Not to
> imply that I am lazy or anything, but only that I do
> not see the people above as true winners.

Well, you've just managed to piss off not only all the advantage players, but all the doctors who might be reading this. If you're looking for easy money, you haven't been paying attention.

As I have often said, if you have the bankroll to play blackjack full time, you have undoubtedly found an easier way to make money.

The pros I know are a group of rugged individualists who share one common trait: They would rather die than work at a conventional job for someone else. These are truly exceptional people, who would likely be successful at any endeavor they were to attempt. They have my sincere respect.

[Designated Driver]

> The house's money is all those chips in the dealer's
> chip tray. If you start playing with that, they will
> get really, really upset.

So that's why they bar you when you start winning too much. :-)

> They do. It is.

> Actually, the odds of being abducted by aliens and of
> winning the top MegaBucks jackpot are almost
> identical.

Pretty good for the believers I guess, but not so good for skeptics like me.

> Well, you've just managed to piss off not only all the
> advantage players, but all the doctors who might be
> reading this. If you're looking for easy money, you
> haven't been paying attention.

I am not looking for "easy" money but plenty of money the easiest way I can get it. And as for "pissing off" the AP's and doctors, all I can say is: Sorry, that was certainly not my intention. But it is a bit funny if it's true. LOL :-() Ha, ha, ha. Just kidding of course. :-)

> As I have often said, if you have the bankroll to play
> blackjack full time, you have undoubtedly found an
> easier way to make money.

Unfortunately, I haven't found that "easier way" yet. But I am on the lookout for how I can make obscene amounts of money by doing absolutely nothing.

> The pros I know are a group of rugged individualists
> who share one common trait: They would rather die than
> work at a conventional job for someone else.

A trait which I posess, for better or worst.

>These are truly exceptional people, who would likely be
> successful at any endeavor they were to attempt. They
> have my sincere respect.

As well as my own. However, I cannot say that I truly envy them.

Desi. D.

[Bettie]

Since Parker addressed most of your questions/points, I will only address one here that bothered me:

> Anybody who is into gambling, AP or not is in it for
> the money, or it is not gambling.

I'm also into working for the money, but that's not gambling. There's a big difference between playing and gambling, and I think that anyone who doesn't understand that is a gambler. Even some who do understand the difference are still gamblers, but if you ("you" generically speaking) don't understand it, you are certainly not an AP'er. Hope that made sense; I haven't had my coffee yet.

> Heard you were feeling a little under the weather and
> hope you are feeling better.

Thanks much. I heard you called yesterday and am happy to answer any questions you might have.

Bettie

[Designated Driver]

> Since Parker addressed most of your questions/points,
> I will only address one here that bothered me:

> I'm also into working for the money, but that's not
> gambling. There's a big difference between playing and
> gambling, and I think that anyone who doesn't
> understand that is a gambler. Even some who do
> understand the difference are still gamblers, but if
> you ("you" generically speaking) don't
> understand it, you are certainly not an AP'er. Hope
> that made sense; I haven't had my coffee yet.

I do understand the difference between playing and gambling, but what can I say: I am really a bit lazy at heart and not all that into working for the money, if I can get it by gambling. I am more interested in retiring on gambling winnings myself. Or better yet: being able to retire and not have to work/play or gamble at all.

Actually I am more of a workaholic and would probably get bored with retirement and nothing to do. :-)

> Thanks much. I heard you called yesterday and am happy
> to answer any questions you might have.

> Bettie

Thanks for all of your answers to my many questions.

And happy new year,
Desi. D.

[Sun Runner]

I had one of my classic mile-long posts put together but have turned a new leaf for 2006!

So simply ..

You want to go to Cal Tech and be a rocket scientist? Great -please go do it if you can. If so, you should be smart enough by now to see that a 1% or 2% advantage, played 100X an hour, hour after hour has potential for a pretty sizeable payback. Or that a 30% or 50% advantage, caught just a couple times a day could be huge.

You have also noticed the bright neon signs on top of the big metal machines that 'quarantee' a 99% payback.

You do understand the difference, right?

If you desire to elevate yourself to the level of those that came before you, back away from the general slots. If you are just going to Vegas to screw-off, fantastic. Have a wonderful time; crank those handles and bet big on red.

Just don't confuse the later with advantage play -unless you happen to notice a wheel where the two green spaces were accidently replaced with two extra red ones!

[Designated Driver]

> I had one of my classic mile-long posts put together
> but have turned a new leaf for 2006!

> So simply ..

> You want to go to Cal Tech and be a rocket scientist?

No, not especially. And I probably couldn't do it even if I did.

> Great -please go do it if you can. If so, you should
> be smart enough by now to see that a 1% or 2%
> advantage, played 100X an hour, hour after hour has
> potential for a pretty sizeable payback. Or that a 30%
> or 50% advantage, caught just a couple times a day
> could be huge.

> You have also noticed the bright neon signs on top of
> the big metal machines that 'quarantee' a 99% payback.

> You do understand the difference, right?

I do, playing slots I will get back 99 times as much. Guaranteed! :-)

> If you desire to elevate yourself to the level of
> those that came before you, back away from the general
> slots. If you are just going to Vegas to screw-off,
> fantastic.

No, I come here to screw off. I will go to Vegas to jerk off. Too much? Sorry. :-)

>Have a wonderful time; crank those handles and bet big on red.

No, no. In the words of Wesley Snipes: Always bet on black.

> Just don't confuse the later with advantage play
> -unless you happen to notice a wheel where the two
> green spaces were accidently replaced with two extra
> red ones!

I'll be on the lookout.

>

I hope my attempt at humor doesn't annoy you.
But thanks Sun Runner, and happy new year, almost.

Desi. D.