Designated Driver: Quitting while you're ahead or losing before you even play.

[Designated Driver]

I don't get it, it seems as if some(a lot) of people, (more than I would like) are trying to discourage me from playing.

While I do certainly appreciate any and all comments posted here(on this forum), positive or negative(if they are sincere and insightful), I cannot help but wonder why they are saying such things.

I try to be polite and diplomatic and cannot understand the reception I have received. Not that I feel attacked, patronized or anything like that, but just a little misunderstood and chastized.

Any thoughts?

Thanks,
Desi. D.

P.S. I just want to be/play the best that I can. And I apologize for the poor syntax of all the parentheses above, but my thoughts did not flow continuously. Sorry. :-)

[JohnAuston]

> I don't get it, it seems as if some(a lot) of people,
> (more than I would like) are trying to discourage me
> from playing.

> While I do certainly appreciate any and all comments
> posted here(on this forum), positive or negative(if
> they are sincere and insightful), I cannot help but
> wonder why they are saying such things.

To make sure you understand that, until you get an enormous number of hands played under your belt, the biggest factor you will encounter, is luck.

You are analyzing the game 10 ways to Sunday, looking for tinyedges, and I am telling you that over years of playing, you will not notice, based on results, those small edges you think you found. Luck will rule your experience.

So, just pick a decent system, learn about 20 indices, use a decent spread, have a decent bankroll, and get out there playing. Oh, and try to have fun. And don't quit your day job. :-)

[Bettie]

> I don't get it, it seems as if some(a lot) of people,
> (more than I would like) are trying to discourage me
> from playing.

> While I do certainly appreciate any and all comments
> posted here(on this forum), positive or negative(if
> they are sincere and insightful), I cannot help but
> wonder why they are saying such things.

> I try to be polite and diplomatic and cannot
> understand the reception I have received. Not that I
> feel attacked, patronized or anything like that, but
> just a little misunderstood and chastized.

> Any thoughts?

Yes, actually. If you go back and read your own posts, you'll find a trend of fearfulness and uncertainty. For example:

11/3
I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the first time rich after only a few days, but I am not sure if I will ever be able to afford to return. And of course you know the dream is to go to Las Vegas and get rich and you try to play accordingly to reach that goal, however risky the behavior.

Not even being able to afford to travel means you don?t have the resources to play. And condoning ?risky? behavior in order to try to leave LV rich is not an AP mindset. On another board, you have stated that you would play any bj winnings in a slot machine to try to win big bucks. That?s just flat-out gambling, not something that we support here.

11/3
not only do I not have the neccessary bankroll, I am not mentally prepared. I am very conservative with my limited funds and am not really a gambler which is of course why I have never played for money before.

You aren?t mentally prepared, have limited funds, and have never played in a casino before. It wouldn?t be prudent for anyone to try to talk you into going in and hitting those tables hard, if at all.

11/9
I know it is a long and slow process, but I wonder when I will ever know enough to feel confident and comfortable gambling my money and have been thinking that maybe I should just quit while I am still ahead, or at least not far behind.

I think anyone responding to you is picking up on this sense of discomfort, which is prevalent in most of your posts, even if you don?t flat-out state it, as you do here. If you don?t feel you are ready, you really, really aren?t.

11/10
I hope to one day play at the "Expert" level as defined by Stanley Roberts

If your goal is to play at a level defined by Roberts, you are on the wrong board. He is not a reputable author, by any means, and this statement shows a naivete in your studies.

11/25
Finally when we got to a point of impasse on these above issues, I told [my uncle] not to argue with me, but to look at the bag of books written by the experts(reputable authors), which I had brought. To which he said, "The experts are only good at selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do it". I say this here with all due respect, and I tried to defend you, the experts of blackjack, but I cannot say that I have not had the same thoughts and still do on occasion from time to time(especially while on this site).

Honestly, if someone is making more money selling books than they are playing bj, then they probably aren?t a reputable author. Aside from that, you just can?t argue with the math. You don?t play bj based on feelings or gut reactions, but on the math alone.

11/25
How would you refute this? Is card counting really only a crude estimation of the ratio of high cards to low? And if it is, how accurate, precise(quantitatively), meaningful, significant and reliable is this information? Is it really enough to to be able to beat the dealer consistently, winning a lot of money in the process?

If you don?t yet know the answers to these questions, you aren?t ready to play.

12/27
Seeing that huge negative result does make me weep, and if this is the case then I cannot see how any individual BJ player can survive, let alone prosper.

Again, you obviously aren?t mentally prepared to face the prospect of the negative swings, which may very well happen (The whole first 6 months of 2005 was a HUGE loss for me, and it?s extremely stressful).

To sum up, you haven?t given much indication that you are mentally prepared to play exactly as the math dictates, be able to accept your losses, and be diligent enough to play only the games that are mathematically sound (slots DO NOT fall into this category). I don?t think you?ve received any outright discouraging feedback (except maybe from me on the other board), but certainly no one is going to urge you to go out and hit the casinos right away, as much as possible, based on just this smattering of your posts above. It simply wouldn?t be responsible to do so.

We certainly wish you the best in your quest to be a player, if even for one weekend. But I think that the nature of your posts indicates that you simply aren?t ready to play for the kind of money that you seem so intent on winning. (I didn?t include it here, but you once wrote about a desire to become the best bj player in the world, surpassing Uston, MIT players, etc., based on the amount of money you win.)

Anyway, I think you get the general idea of what I?m trying to say here. You are obviously earnest in your desire to learn, so keep reading, keep asking questions, and keep building that bankroll. You?ll know when you?re ready, and you won?t be questioning yourself like you have so much lately.

Best of luck,
Bettie

[thanks4thefish]

I have read your previous posts responded to by Bettie, concur with her advice & add the following.

Re: "I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the
first time rich after only a few days"

Considering at best you will only be earning about 1% of your turnover BEFORE expenses you will be lucky on a small bankroll to survive, which is why you see red chipper APs begging hosts for food comps

re: "The experts are only good at selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do it".

There is a distinction between do not & cannot. Many of the reputable authors have made far less than other APs, true. This in no way detracts from their works.

Just as not every anthropology professor wishes to spend a vast portion of their lives in the jungle, so too many authors are simply enamoured with the maths & theory, with little desire to sit in smoky casino's plying the trade for hours on end. It is exteremely repetitious. The execution of card counting is quite mind numbingly boring, & yes it is hard work.

Why else do you think APs would rather sit here talking about BJ than playing

I doubt many authors other than Thorp, Humble & Uston have made a lot of money selling books, as it's not a huge market. If I could make more money writing books than casino play I'd gladly swap!

Besides which, authors like Thorp, Wilson, & Griffin don't claim to be able to teach casino comportment for AP's, they largely stick to the math. These 3 authors are smarter guys than you or I, & I trust their work more than the claims of player/ author's that whilst I admire, simply don't have the mathematical ability to fully analyse the minutae of the game.

Thorp, the grand daddy of counting, a professor of maths, who has since made millions applying his maths & analysis skills to the stock market. Wilson, another professor who worked on the Atlas Missile program, developing predictive trajectory. Griffin, yet another professor, whose mathematics are probably only fully understood by a handful of people in the world, one of whom would probably be Epstein another great mathematician/ author with interest in games of chance.

Then there's your uncle........umm, no offense

If you want to hear the exploits of players, you have only to read Uston, Anderson, Carlson, & some of the modern authors I haven't got around to buying yet.

I can also attest that there are at least a couple of HUGE APs out there, & quite a few more in seven figure territory that have never written a book, & probably never will, at least whilst they are making the sort of money they are.

These books if ever written will make Anderson, Uston, & the MIT brats look like red chippers.

But then every industry has the high achievers, why should this one be any different.

But one step at a time.

Like any other serious endeavour, there will always be many more people aspiring than actually achieving. If you are serious about the latter then it's essential to have enough knowledge before starting.

That people like Bettie have taken the time to respond to your posts, shows that they are sympathetic to your plight.

You would do well to listen to the advice.

If you wish, post a list of the books you have read, to give us a better idea of where you're up to, & if there's any misleading junk among them. I should be familiar with most of them, (the reputable authors anyway) having a fairly comprehensive library.

Regards,

Fish

[Designated Driver]

> To make sure you understand that, until you get an
> enormous number of hands played under your belt, the
> biggest factor you will encounter, is luck.

> You are analyzing the game 10 ways to Sunday, looking
> for tinyedges, and I am telling you that over years of
> playing, you will not notice, based on results, those
> small edges you think you found. Luck will rule your
> experience.

> So, just pick a decent system, learn about 20 indices,
> use a decent spread, have a decent bankroll, and get
> out there playing. Oh, and try to have fun. And don't
> quit your day job. :-)

I wasn't going to mention this, but I don't have one. Well at least not yet, and if I did I probably wouldn't be here. But I don't, so that's why/where Blackjack comes in. :-)

Now that that is out of the way, I hope you can understand why gambling and advantage play are so important to me, for this trip at least.

And thank you(John) for the advice, I do appreciate it and hope I didn't imply otherwise. :-)

Desi. D.

[Designated Driver]

> Yes, actually. If you go back and read your own posts,
> you'll find a trend of fearfulness and uncertainty.
> For example:

Certainly well justified I would think, as only a fool rushes in to part with his money.

> 11/3
> I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the
> first time rich after only a few days, but I am not
> sure if I will ever be able to afford to return. And
> of course you know the dream is to go to Las Vegas and
> get rich and you try to play accordingly to reach that
> goal, however risky the behavior. Not even being able
> to afford to travel means you don?t have the resources
> to play. And condoning ?risky? behavior in order to
> try to leave LV rich is not an AP mindset. On another
> board, you have stated that you would play any bj
> winnings in a slot machine to try to win big bucks.
> That?s just flat-out gambling, not something that we
> support here.

I agree with you on the above(top) points.
Are you saying that I am wrong in thinking that playing a slot machine can be profitable, even when going for a large payout using leverage(casino money from other winnings)? If this is the case, then what are all of the slot machine books and systems(a couple of which you carry on this site) preaching? Money management: How to hold onto your money longer while you will inevitably lose it all anyway?

Letting alone my uncle for now, I have heard stories from some others who have won playing the slot machines. My grandmother and aunt to start with, along with a few others.

Now don't get me wrong, I wasn't planning on making this my muse(game of choice) and was only going to play to have the off shot at winning big, which I do not see to be possible playing either BJ or VP; even with huge bets. I think even an experienced and well bankrolled AP would have a hard time winning eight figures(i.e. $10,000,000) no matter how long they played.

And not to overstate the point here, but although I(and some other APs) may take interest in the playing the games and derive some sort of entertainment and pleasure from it, in the end MONEY is still the bottom line and BIG BUCKS the name of the game.

Anybody who is into gambling, AP or not is in it for the money, or it is not gambling.

> 11/3
> not only do I not have the neccessary bankroll, I am
> not mentally prepared. I am very conservative with my
> limited funds and am not really a gambler which is of
> course why I have never played for money before. You
> aren?t mentally prepared, have limited funds, and have
> never played in a casino before. It wouldn?t be
> prudent for anyone to try to talk you into going in
> and hitting those tables hard, if at all.

All true, but one need's to start somewhere, and that is usually at the beginning(the bottom) which is alright for me. If there is a another, better way to do it, I certainly do not know it. And if you do, would you let me know. :-)

> 11/9
> I know it is a long and slow process, but I wonder
> when I will ever know enough to feel confident and
> comfortable gambling my money and have been thinking
> that maybe I should just quit while I am still ahead,
> or at least not far behind. I think anyone responding
> to you is picking up on this sense of discomfort,
> which is prevalent in most of your posts, even if you
> don?t flat-out state it, as you do here. If you don?t
> feel you are ready, you really, really aren?t.

> 11/10
> I hope to one day play at the "Expert" level
> as defined by Stanley Roberts If your goal is to play
> at a level defined by Roberts, you are on the wrong
> board. He is not a reputable author, by any means, and
> this statement shows a naivete in your studies.

Didn't Stanley publish Ken Uston's books, at least MDB? And my "statement" may show my naivete, but I hope it would also reflect my wide range of reading upon the topic as well. My desire to learn at the very least.

> 11/25
> Finally when we got to a point of impasse on these
> above issues, I told [my uncle] not to argue with me,
> but to look at the bag of books written by the
> experts(reputable authors), which I had brought. To
> which he said, "The experts are only good at
> selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do
> it". I say this here with all due respect, and I
> tried to defend you, the experts of blackjack, but I
> cannot say that I have not had the same thoughts and
> still do on occasion from time to time(especially
> while on this site). Honestly, if someone is making
> more money selling books than they are playing bj,
> then they probably aren?t a reputable author. Aside
> from that, you just can?t argue with the math. You
> don?t play bj based on feelings or gut reactions, but
> on the math alone.

I definitely agree with you on that one, although I also find it hard to trust what I do not fully understand; the complicated math, computer sims and all. I would not trust what a computer told me even if it spoke in plain english!

> 11/25
> How would you refute this? Is card counting really
> only a crude estimation of the ratio of high cards to
> low? And if it is, how accurate,
> precise(quantitatively), meaningful, significant and
> reliable is this information? Is it really enough to
> to be able to beat the dealer consistently, winning a
> lot of money in the process? If you don?t yet know
> the answers to these questions, you aren?t ready to
> play.

Can you honestly tell me that during those long losing sessions you don't ever question the validity of BJ theory? I have read a lot of those kinds of books too. And I don't think you can be 100% confident, certain and ready for anything that you are about to do.

> 12/27
> Seeing that huge negative result does make me weep,
> and if this is the case then I cannot see how any
> individual BJ player can survive, let alone prosper.
> Again, you obviously aren?t mentally prepared to face
> the prospect of the negative swings, which may very
> well happen (The whole first 6 months of 2005 was a
> HUGE loss for me, and it?s extremely stressful).

Sorry about that. I hope the year 2006 will start off better for both you, and me alike. :-)

> To sum up, you haven?t given much indication that you
> are mentally prepared to play exactly as the math
> dictates, be able to accept your losses, and be
> diligent enough to play only the games that are
> mathematically sound (slots DO NOT fall into this
> category). I don?t think you?ve received any outright
> discouraging feedback (except maybe from me on the
> other board), but certainly no one is going to urge
> you to go out and hit the casinos right away, as much
> as possible, based on just this smattering of your
> posts above. It simply wouldn?t be responsible to do
> so.

I simply view slots as the only game where you can get a "life-changing" payback with a modest players wager. And as for the feedback, you are right, I have not received any outright discouraging comments(even from yourself) and I do truly appreciate anybody who has taken the time and interest to respond to any of my posts. Thank you. :-)

> We certainly wish you the best in your quest to be a
> player, if even for one weekend. But I think that the
> nature of your posts indicates that you simply aren?t
> ready to play for the kind of money that you seem so
> intent on winning. (I didn?t include it here, but you
> once wrote about a desire to become the best bj player
> in the world, surpassing Uston, MIT players, etc.,
> based on the amount of money you win.)

No, not based on the amount of monetary winnings, but on pure BJ skill. And you can never be ready to win the kinds of money I am intent on winning. I want to be the first trillionaire in the world(not all from BJ of course) and that one can never be prepared for. Only half kidding. :-)

> Anyway, I think you get the general idea of what I?m
> trying to say here. You are obviously earnest in your
> desire to learn, so keep reading, keep asking
> questions, and keep building that bankroll. You?ll
> know when you?re ready, and you won?t be questioning
> yourself like you have so much lately.

Well, I don't know about that. I am a skeptic by nature and always seem to find more reasons to question if not doubt things.

> Best of luck,
> Bettie

Heard you were feeling a little under the weather and hope you are feeling better.

Thanks, and later.
Desi. D.

[Designated Driver]

> I have read your previous posts responded to by
> Bettie, concur with her advice & add the
> following.

> Re: "I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas
> for the
> first time rich after only a few days"

> Considering at best you will only be earning about 1%
> of your turnover BEFORE expenses you will be lucky on
> a small bankroll to survive, which is why you see red
> chipper APs begging hosts for food comps

Which is why every thing is already paid for. And considering the return you mentioned above of about 1%, that is pretty paltry to me and why I am planning to play the slots. Hey, I I am only going to be in Vegas for a few days and it's all a game of luck, I would rather get lucky on the slots than at BJ.

> re: "The experts are only good at selling books,
> and they do not/cannot actually do it".

> There is a distinction between do not & cannot.
> Many of the reputable authors have made far less than
> other APs, true. This in no way detracts from their
> works.

I agree.

> Just as not every anthropology professor wishes to
> spend a vast portion of their lives in the jungle, so
> too many authors are simply enamoured with the maths
> & theory, with little desire to sit in smoky
> casino's plying the trade for hours on end. It is
> exteremely repetitious. The execution of card counting
> is quite mind numbingly boring, & yes it is hard
> work.

> Why else do you think APs would rather sit here
> talking about BJ than playing

> I doubt many authors other than Thorp, Humble &
> Uston have made a lot of money selling books, as it's
> not a huge market. If I could make more money writing
> books than casino play I'd gladly swap!

> Besides which, authors like Thorp, Wilson, &
> Griffin don't claim to be able to teach casino
> comportment for AP's, they largely stick to the math.
> These 3 authors are smarter guys than you or I, &
> I trust their work more than the claims of player/
> author's that whilst I admire, simply don't have the
> mathematical ability to fully analyse the minutae of
> the game.

> Thorp, the grand daddy of counting, a professor of
> maths, who has since made millions applying his maths
> & analysis skills to the stock market. Wilson,
> another professor who worked on the Atlas Missile
> program, developing predictive trajectory. Griffin,
> yet another professor, whose mathematics are probably
> only fully understood by a handful of people in the
> world, one of whom would probably be Epstein another
> great mathematician/ author with interest in games of
> chance.

> Then there's your uncle........umm, no offense

Yeah, his degree is in psychology. I am going for either engineering(aerospace/mechanical) or physics, possibly with a minor or double in mathematics. But I am definitely not there yet! :-)

> If you want to hear the exploits of players, you have
> only to read Uston, Anderson, Carlson, & some of
> the modern authors I haven't got around to buying yet.

Read em all. :-)

> I can also attest that there are at least a couple of
> HUGE APs out there, & quite a few more in seven
> figure territory that have never written a book, &
> probably never will, at least whilst they are making
> the sort of money they are.

> These books if ever written will make Anderson, Uston,
> & the MIT brats look like red chippers.

Brats they are, I hope to get into Caltech myself.

> But then every industry has the high achievers, why
> should this one be any different.

No reason, it shouldn't.

> But one step at a time.

> Like any other serious endeavour, there will always be
> many more people aspiring than actually achieving. If
> you are serious about the latter then it's essential
> to have enough knowledge before starting.

> That people like Bettie have taken the time to respond
> to your posts, shows that they are sympathetic to your
> plight.

I have acknowledged this and sincerely wish to thank you along with them.

> You would do well to listen to the advice.

That's why I'm here listening to what has to be said.

> If you wish, post a list of the books you have read,
> to give us a better idea of where you're up to, &
> if there's any misleading junk among them. I should be
> familiar with most of them, (the reputable authors
> anyway) having a fairly comprehensive library.

Okay, but tomorrow as my browser or something(the page editor) isn't working right. Not to mention the list is pretty long.

> Regards,

> Fish

Yup, thanks Fish.
Desi. D.

[Parker]

I have largely stayed out of this thread, primarily because you have received some excellent advice, to which there is not a great deal I can add. However, I would like to make a couple of comments.

> I agree with you on the above(top) points.
> Are you saying that I am wrong in thinking that
> playing a slot machine can be profitable, even when
> going for a large payout using leverage(casino money
> from other winnings)?

Leverage? Once you have won the money, it is yours and should be treated accordingly. Casinos love to hear people who win a bit saying "I can bet bigger now because I'm playing with the house's money."

> If this is the case, then what
> are all of the slot machine books and systems(a couple
> of which you carry on this site) preaching? Money
> management: How to hold onto your money longer while
> you will inevitably lose it all anyway?

Slot machines are negative expectation games. Play them long enough, and you will indeed lose all your money. Any book that purports to present a winning "system" for slots is a scam.

The slot books we carry do not make any such claims. Rather, they do indeed teach how to make your money last as long as possible. More importantly, they dispel many of the myths surrounding slot machines (Examples: The casinos "tighten up" the machines on busy weekends, a machine that has just paid a big jackpot is now less likely to pay, etc.).

> Letting alone my uncle for now, I have heard stories
> from some others who have won playing the slot
> machines. My grandmother and aunt to start with, along
> with a few others.

I've heard stories of people being abducted by aliens. Doesn't mean I believe them.

> Now don't get me wrong, I wasn't planning on making
> this my muse(game of choice) and was only going to
> play to have the off shot at winning big, which I do
> not see to be possible playing either BJ or VP; even
> with huge bets.

Bless you. It is precisely that attitude that keeps the casino raking in the money, and thus providing opportunities for advantage players (like me) who care to look for and exploit them.

> I think even an experienced and well
> bankrolled AP would have a hard time winning eight
> figures(i.e. $10,000,000) no matter how long they
> played.

Nor do they expect to. However, I personally know a number of pros who have been earning annual incomes well into 6 figures for many years, in addition to enjoying a lifestyle (comped suites, gourmet meals, etc.) that most people only dream about.

> Anybody who is into gambling, AP or not is in it for
> the money, or it is not gambling.

"Gamblers" do it for the adrenaline rush. Most AP's do not consider themselves gamblers.

> Can you honestly tell me that during those long losing
> sessions you don't ever question the validity of BJ
> theory?

Yes, I can honestly tell you that. Actually, a thorough understanding of BJ theory tells me that long losing sessions are inevitable.

[Bettie]

Since Parker addressed most of your questions/points, I will only address one here that bothered me:

> Anybody who is into gambling, AP or not is in it for
> the money, or it is not gambling.

I'm also into working for the money, but that's not gambling. There's a big difference between playing and gambling, and I think that anyone who doesn't understand that is a gambler. Even some who do understand the difference are still gamblers, but if you ("you" generically speaking) don't understand it, you are certainly not an AP'er. Hope that made sense; I haven't had my coffee yet.

> Heard you were feeling a little under the weather and
> hope you are feeling better.

Thanks much. I heard you called yesterday and am happy to answer any questions you might have.

Bettie

[Sun Runner]

I had one of my classic mile-long posts put together but have turned a new leaf for 2006!

So simply ..

You want to go to Cal Tech and be a rocket scientist? Great -please go do it if you can. If so, you should be smart enough by now to see that a 1% or 2% advantage, played 100X an hour, hour after hour has potential for a pretty sizeable payback. Or that a 30% or 50% advantage, caught just a couple times a day could be huge.

You have also noticed the bright neon signs on top of the big metal machines that 'quarantee' a 99% payback.

You do understand the difference, right?

If you desire to elevate yourself to the level of those that came before you, back away from the general slots. If you are just going to Vegas to screw-off, fantastic. Have a wonderful time; crank those handles and bet big on red.

Just don't confuse the later with advantage play -unless you happen to notice a wheel where the two green spaces were accidently replaced with two extra red ones!

[Designated Driver]

> I have largely stayed out of this thread, primarily
> because you have received some excellent advice, to
> which there is not a great deal I can add. However, I
> would like to make a couple of comments.

> Leverage? Once you have won the money, it is yours
> and should be treated accordingly. Casinos love to
> hear people who win a bit saying "I can bet
> bigger now because I'm playing with the house's
> money."

Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the house's money.

> Slot machines are negative expectation games. Play
> them long enough, and you will indeed lose all your
> money. Any book that purports to present a winning
> "system" for slots is a scam.

Then, in the mindset of an AP...Why play at all?

Precisely the point you were trying to make right. :-)

> The slot books we carry do not make any such claims.
> Rather, they do indeed teach how to make your money
> last as long as possible. More importantly, they
> dispel many of the myths surrounding slot machines
> (Examples: The casinos "tighten up" the
> machines on busy weekends, a machine that has just
> paid a big jackpot is now less likely to pay, etc.).

Yes, but do they actually teach you how to win? I have bought one(John Robison's) and have read the other(borrowed from the library) and in my humble opinion no, they do not and the time and money invested might have been better spent elsewhere. And as for dispelling those "myths", do people actually believe in such rediculous things, it seems like sheer nonsense to me.

> I've heard stories of people being abducted by aliens.
> Doesn't mean I believe them.

Me neither. But it makes you wonder doesn't it? Is it not possible to be abducted by aliens, or actually win at the slots?

> Bless you. It is precisely that attitude that keeps
> the casino raking in the money, and thus providing
> opportunities for advantage players (like me) who care
> to look for and exploit them.

You're welcome. :-)

> Nor do they expect to. However, I personally know a
> number of pros who have been earning annual incomes
> well into 6 figures for many years, in addition to
> enjoying a lifestyle (comped suites, gourmet meals,
> etc.) that most people only dream about.

A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for what I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison here, but they are no better than doctors making their tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as they labor for their earnings. A truly rich person gets paid a lot more to do nothing at all. Not to imply that I am lazy or anything, but only that I do not see the people above as true winners.

> "Gamblers" do it for the adrenaline rush.
> Most AP's do not consider themselves gamblers.

The point I was trying to make is that everyone is playing for the money, whether you call it "gambling", "advantage play", or any other name, the goal is still the same: to win the casino's money.

> Yes, I can honestly tell you that. Actually, a
> thorough understanding of BJ theory tells me that long
> losing sessions are inevitable.

Honestly then, why play? Why would you thoroughly learn the details of how to play a game only to be able to lose?

Just a few questions to your comments.
Desi. D.

[thanks4thefish]

[Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were
going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the
house's money.]

Sigh...what Parker is telling you is that it's not the house's money it's yours. Similarly if you find $100 in the parking lot it's yours, & should rationally be treated as if it was earned.

[A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for what
I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison
here, but they are no better than doctors making their
tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as
they labor for their earnings.]

Exactly, now you've got it!

BJ is most likely the wrong career path for you, unless you look at it like many ambitious APs, as a way of building a bankroll for more profitable ventures.

For me, having only completed high school, no-one seems willing to pay me this 'paltry' sum. I'm happy to labour for this, not take any crap from bosses & work my own hours.

Card counting at best for most is ekeing out a living.

Only a small % like myself even achieve what you sneer at!

Only a minute %, like high stake team leaders, or globe trotting hi stake players would clear more than this. (I'm guessing here, as I'm working on second hand info, not knowing any of them personally)

A truly rich person gets paid a lot more to do nothing at all. Not to simply that I am lazy or anything, but only that I do not see the people above as true winners.]

I'm sad for you then. I do not judge peoples success by how much they make. I would consider someone who loves to surf or play music, deriving their income from same to be successful. Ceratinly more so than say Packer who just passed away, who spent just about every waking moment working.

My AP mentor earns more than me each year, a feat considering my income also takes into account my wife's, but he is single & his personal life always in a state of crisis. I do not consider him to be leading a successful life, & certainly do not envy him.

Further I have purchased & nearly paid a rather nice house, (by my standards, certainly not yours!) over seven years, whilst he has squandered most of his earnings.

I don't expect this to impress you by the way, as I know it is way below your target, but I am hell happy with it.

At 30 I was lonely, broke & in debt. Now I am married, 2 great kids, financially stable & doing work I enjoy..well as much as anyone can enjoy working anyway

I have the bankroll & I'd like to think the potential to make more, but at the expense of my comfortable family life, the price is too high.

Your questions as to the likelihood of winning can largely be answered by purchasing a sim, & learning to both use it, & interpret the results.

That you don't trust computers, or the validity of the written works of brilliant professors & mathematicians smacks of arrogance to me.

You mentioned you've read Million $ BJ. One of the biggest impressions I took from that book is his explanation of why you split 8's against a 10, ie because computer simulations show you will make more money doing this than anything else.

As much as BJ theory interests me, I always fall back on Uston's logic of why to play a hand a particular way, & extend that logic to everything BJ.

My benchmark ROR is Uston's 5% (for a renewable bankroll),
I sim my game accordingly & play whatever the sim dictates.

If you sense any intolerance in the answers, it's likely because they have all been presented to you, but you have not yet heard anything you want to hear.

In a nutshell, unless you have the bankroll & management skills to run a highly successful team, you won't see the sort of dollars you seem to want from this game. Even if you do possess these, in today's climate it would be an almost impossible feat.

You would do much better looking at sports betting or horse racing, where the % are higher, & the profits limited only to your bankroll & ability.

[Parker]

> Well, even if it is "yours"; if you were
> going to play anyway, you might as well do it with the
> house's money.

The house's money is all those chips in the dealer's chip tray. If you start playing with that, they will get really, really upset.

> Yes, but do they actually teach you how to win? I have
> bought one(John Robison's) and have read the
> other(borrowed from the library) and in my humble
> opinion no, they do not and the time and money
> invested might have been better spent elsewhere. And
> as for dispelling those "myths", do people
> actually believe in such rediculous things, it seems
> like sheer nonsense to me.

They do. It is.

> Me neither. But it makes you wonder doesn't it? Is it
> not possible to be abducted by aliens, or actually win
> at the slots?

Actually, the odds of being abducted by aliens and of winning the top MegaBucks jackpot are almost identical.

> A good life for many I am sure, but a far cry for what
> I am looking for. Not to draw too close a comparison
> here, but they are no better than doctors making their
> tidy little 6 figure salaries year in and year out as
> they labor for their earnings. A truly rich person
> gets paid a lot more to do nothing at all. Not to
> imply that I am lazy or anything, but only that I do
> not see the people above as true winners.

Well, you've just managed to piss off not only all the advantage players, but all the doctors who might be reading this. If you're looking for easy money, you haven't been paying attention.

As I have often said, if you have the bankroll to play blackjack full time, you have undoubtedly found an easier way to make money.

The pros I know are a group of rugged individualists who share one common trait: They would rather die than work at a conventional job for someone else. These are truly exceptional people, who would likely be successful at any endeavor they were to attempt. They have my sincere respect.