Designated Driver: Quitting while you're ahead or losing before you even play.

[Designated Driver]

I don't get it, it seems as if some(a lot) of people, (more than I would like) are trying to discourage me from playing.

While I do certainly appreciate any and all comments posted here(on this forum), positive or negative(if they are sincere and insightful), I cannot help but wonder why they are saying such things.

I try to be polite and diplomatic and cannot understand the reception I have received. Not that I feel attacked, patronized or anything like that, but just a little misunderstood and chastized.

Any thoughts?

Thanks,
Desi. D.

P.S. I just want to be/play the best that I can. And I apologize for the poor syntax of all the parentheses above, but my thoughts did not flow continuously. Sorry. :-)

[JohnAuston]

> I don't get it, it seems as if some(a lot) of people,
> (more than I would like) are trying to discourage me
> from playing.

> While I do certainly appreciate any and all comments
> posted here(on this forum), positive or negative(if
> they are sincere and insightful), I cannot help but
> wonder why they are saying such things.

To make sure you understand that, until you get an enormous number of hands played under your belt, the biggest factor you will encounter, is luck.

You are analyzing the game 10 ways to Sunday, looking for tinyedges, and I am telling you that over years of playing, you will not notice, based on results, those small edges you think you found. Luck will rule your experience.

So, just pick a decent system, learn about 20 indices, use a decent spread, have a decent bankroll, and get out there playing. Oh, and try to have fun. And don't quit your day job. :-)

[Designated Driver]

> To make sure you understand that, until you get an
> enormous number of hands played under your belt, the
> biggest factor you will encounter, is luck.

> You are analyzing the game 10 ways to Sunday, looking
> for tinyedges, and I am telling you that over years of
> playing, you will not notice, based on results, those
> small edges you think you found. Luck will rule your
> experience.

> So, just pick a decent system, learn about 20 indices,
> use a decent spread, have a decent bankroll, and get
> out there playing. Oh, and try to have fun. And don't
> quit your day job. :-)

I wasn't going to mention this, but I don't have one. Well at least not yet, and if I did I probably wouldn't be here. But I don't, so that's why/where Blackjack comes in. :-)

Now that that is out of the way, I hope you can understand why gambling and advantage play are so important to me, for this trip at least.

And thank you(John) for the advice, I do appreciate it and hope I didn't imply otherwise. :-)

Desi. D.

[Bettie]

> I don't get it, it seems as if some(a lot) of people,
> (more than I would like) are trying to discourage me
> from playing.

> While I do certainly appreciate any and all comments
> posted here(on this forum), positive or negative(if
> they are sincere and insightful), I cannot help but
> wonder why they are saying such things.

> I try to be polite and diplomatic and cannot
> understand the reception I have received. Not that I
> feel attacked, patronized or anything like that, but
> just a little misunderstood and chastized.

> Any thoughts?

Yes, actually. If you go back and read your own posts, you'll find a trend of fearfulness and uncertainty. For example:

11/3
I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the first time rich after only a few days, but I am not sure if I will ever be able to afford to return. And of course you know the dream is to go to Las Vegas and get rich and you try to play accordingly to reach that goal, however risky the behavior.

Not even being able to afford to travel means you don?t have the resources to play. And condoning ?risky? behavior in order to try to leave LV rich is not an AP mindset. On another board, you have stated that you would play any bj winnings in a slot machine to try to win big bucks. That?s just flat-out gambling, not something that we support here.

11/3
not only do I not have the neccessary bankroll, I am not mentally prepared. I am very conservative with my limited funds and am not really a gambler which is of course why I have never played for money before.

You aren?t mentally prepared, have limited funds, and have never played in a casino before. It wouldn?t be prudent for anyone to try to talk you into going in and hitting those tables hard, if at all.

11/9
I know it is a long and slow process, but I wonder when I will ever know enough to feel confident and comfortable gambling my money and have been thinking that maybe I should just quit while I am still ahead, or at least not far behind.

I think anyone responding to you is picking up on this sense of discomfort, which is prevalent in most of your posts, even if you don?t flat-out state it, as you do here. If you don?t feel you are ready, you really, really aren?t.

11/10
I hope to one day play at the "Expert" level as defined by Stanley Roberts

If your goal is to play at a level defined by Roberts, you are on the wrong board. He is not a reputable author, by any means, and this statement shows a naivete in your studies.

11/25
Finally when we got to a point of impasse on these above issues, I told [my uncle] not to argue with me, but to look at the bag of books written by the experts(reputable authors), which I had brought. To which he said, "The experts are only good at selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do it". I say this here with all due respect, and I tried to defend you, the experts of blackjack, but I cannot say that I have not had the same thoughts and still do on occasion from time to time(especially while on this site).

Honestly, if someone is making more money selling books than they are playing bj, then they probably aren?t a reputable author. Aside from that, you just can?t argue with the math. You don?t play bj based on feelings or gut reactions, but on the math alone.

11/25
How would you refute this? Is card counting really only a crude estimation of the ratio of high cards to low? And if it is, how accurate, precise(quantitatively), meaningful, significant and reliable is this information? Is it really enough to to be able to beat the dealer consistently, winning a lot of money in the process?

If you don?t yet know the answers to these questions, you aren?t ready to play.

12/27
Seeing that huge negative result does make me weep, and if this is the case then I cannot see how any individual BJ player can survive, let alone prosper.

Again, you obviously aren?t mentally prepared to face the prospect of the negative swings, which may very well happen (The whole first 6 months of 2005 was a HUGE loss for me, and it?s extremely stressful).

To sum up, you haven?t given much indication that you are mentally prepared to play exactly as the math dictates, be able to accept your losses, and be diligent enough to play only the games that are mathematically sound (slots DO NOT fall into this category). I don?t think you?ve received any outright discouraging feedback (except maybe from me on the other board), but certainly no one is going to urge you to go out and hit the casinos right away, as much as possible, based on just this smattering of your posts above. It simply wouldn?t be responsible to do so.

We certainly wish you the best in your quest to be a player, if even for one weekend. But I think that the nature of your posts indicates that you simply aren?t ready to play for the kind of money that you seem so intent on winning. (I didn?t include it here, but you once wrote about a desire to become the best bj player in the world, surpassing Uston, MIT players, etc., based on the amount of money you win.)

Anyway, I think you get the general idea of what I?m trying to say here. You are obviously earnest in your desire to learn, so keep reading, keep asking questions, and keep building that bankroll. You?ll know when you?re ready, and you won?t be questioning yourself like you have so much lately.

Best of luck,
Bettie

[thanks4thefish]

I have read your previous posts responded to by Bettie, concur with her advice & add the following.

Re: "I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the
first time rich after only a few days"

Considering at best you will only be earning about 1% of your turnover BEFORE expenses you will be lucky on a small bankroll to survive, which is why you see red chipper APs begging hosts for food comps

re: "The experts are only good at selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do it".

There is a distinction between do not & cannot. Many of the reputable authors have made far less than other APs, true. This in no way detracts from their works.

Just as not every anthropology professor wishes to spend a vast portion of their lives in the jungle, so too many authors are simply enamoured with the maths & theory, with little desire to sit in smoky casino's plying the trade for hours on end. It is exteremely repetitious. The execution of card counting is quite mind numbingly boring, & yes it is hard work.

Why else do you think APs would rather sit here talking about BJ than playing

I doubt many authors other than Thorp, Humble & Uston have made a lot of money selling books, as it's not a huge market. If I could make more money writing books than casino play I'd gladly swap!

Besides which, authors like Thorp, Wilson, & Griffin don't claim to be able to teach casino comportment for AP's, they largely stick to the math. These 3 authors are smarter guys than you or I, & I trust their work more than the claims of player/ author's that whilst I admire, simply don't have the mathematical ability to fully analyse the minutae of the game.

Thorp, the grand daddy of counting, a professor of maths, who has since made millions applying his maths & analysis skills to the stock market. Wilson, another professor who worked on the Atlas Missile program, developing predictive trajectory. Griffin, yet another professor, whose mathematics are probably only fully understood by a handful of people in the world, one of whom would probably be Epstein another great mathematician/ author with interest in games of chance.

Then there's your uncle........umm, no offense

If you want to hear the exploits of players, you have only to read Uston, Anderson, Carlson, & some of the modern authors I haven't got around to buying yet.

I can also attest that there are at least a couple of HUGE APs out there, & quite a few more in seven figure territory that have never written a book, & probably never will, at least whilst they are making the sort of money they are.

These books if ever written will make Anderson, Uston, & the MIT brats look like red chippers.

But then every industry has the high achievers, why should this one be any different.

But one step at a time.

Like any other serious endeavour, there will always be many more people aspiring than actually achieving. If you are serious about the latter then it's essential to have enough knowledge before starting.

That people like Bettie have taken the time to respond to your posts, shows that they are sympathetic to your plight.

You would do well to listen to the advice.

If you wish, post a list of the books you have read, to give us a better idea of where you're up to, & if there's any misleading junk among them. I should be familiar with most of them, (the reputable authors anyway) having a fairly comprehensive library.

Regards,

Fish

[Designated Driver]

> I have read your previous posts responded to by
> Bettie, concur with her advice & add the
> following.

> Re: "I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas
> for the
> first time rich after only a few days"

> Considering at best you will only be earning about 1%
> of your turnover BEFORE expenses you will be lucky on
> a small bankroll to survive, which is why you see red
> chipper APs begging hosts for food comps

Which is why every thing is already paid for. And considering the return you mentioned above of about 1%, that is pretty paltry to me and why I am planning to play the slots. Hey, I I am only going to be in Vegas for a few days and it's all a game of luck, I would rather get lucky on the slots than at BJ.

> re: "The experts are only good at selling books,
> and they do not/cannot actually do it".

> There is a distinction between do not & cannot.
> Many of the reputable authors have made far less than
> other APs, true. This in no way detracts from their
> works.

I agree.

> Just as not every anthropology professor wishes to
> spend a vast portion of their lives in the jungle, so
> too many authors are simply enamoured with the maths
> & theory, with little desire to sit in smoky
> casino's plying the trade for hours on end. It is
> exteremely repetitious. The execution of card counting
> is quite mind numbingly boring, & yes it is hard
> work.

> Why else do you think APs would rather sit here
> talking about BJ than playing

> I doubt many authors other than Thorp, Humble &
> Uston have made a lot of money selling books, as it's
> not a huge market. If I could make more money writing
> books than casino play I'd gladly swap!

> Besides which, authors like Thorp, Wilson, &
> Griffin don't claim to be able to teach casino
> comportment for AP's, they largely stick to the math.
> These 3 authors are smarter guys than you or I, &
> I trust their work more than the claims of player/
> author's that whilst I admire, simply don't have the
> mathematical ability to fully analyse the minutae of
> the game.

> Thorp, the grand daddy of counting, a professor of
> maths, who has since made millions applying his maths
> & analysis skills to the stock market. Wilson,
> another professor who worked on the Atlas Missile
> program, developing predictive trajectory. Griffin,
> yet another professor, whose mathematics are probably
> only fully understood by a handful of people in the
> world, one of whom would probably be Epstein another
> great mathematician/ author with interest in games of
> chance.

> Then there's your uncle........umm, no offense

Yeah, his degree is in psychology. I am going for either engineering(aerospace/mechanical) or physics, possibly with a minor or double in mathematics. But I am definitely not there yet! :-)

> If you want to hear the exploits of players, you have
> only to read Uston, Anderson, Carlson, & some of
> the modern authors I haven't got around to buying yet.

Read em all. :-)

> I can also attest that there are at least a couple of
> HUGE APs out there, & quite a few more in seven
> figure territory that have never written a book, &
> probably never will, at least whilst they are making
> the sort of money they are.

> These books if ever written will make Anderson, Uston,
> & the MIT brats look like red chippers.

Brats they are, I hope to get into Caltech myself.

> But then every industry has the high achievers, why
> should this one be any different.

No reason, it shouldn't.

> But one step at a time.

> Like any other serious endeavour, there will always be
> many more people aspiring than actually achieving. If
> you are serious about the latter then it's essential
> to have enough knowledge before starting.

> That people like Bettie have taken the time to respond
> to your posts, shows that they are sympathetic to your
> plight.

I have acknowledged this and sincerely wish to thank you along with them.

> You would do well to listen to the advice.

That's why I'm here listening to what has to be said.

> If you wish, post a list of the books you have read,
> to give us a better idea of where you're up to, &
> if there's any misleading junk among them. I should be
> familiar with most of them, (the reputable authors
> anyway) having a fairly comprehensive library.

Okay, but tomorrow as my browser or something(the page editor) isn't working right. Not to mention the list is pretty long.

> Regards,

> Fish

Yup, thanks Fish.
Desi. D.

[Designated Driver]

[thanks4thefish]

Let's have a look.

The reason I posted 'My last post' is simply that you have already received great advice, which has been repeated & built on by many. You have received all the answers, it's really just up to you if you wish to accept them.

I have no interest in convincing you beyond what any rational person should require.

"Success in life is happiness. :-)"

Considering the no. of rich & famous that commit suicide this should be a no brainer!

"Rather unfortunate as I am a chronic depressive. :-("

Perhaps like my mentor you should be focusing on your personal life more.

"I object. I am not arrogant, but pompous."

For being unwilling to invest in a BJ sim, I'd say stubborn. Properly used & understood it will answer all your questions re: applying any system, the merit of any adaptations, profitability & risk, the bankroll required for any given game & your approach to it.

"Sometimes I don't hear anything at all."

Then why ask the questions, if you're unwilling to seriously ponder the answers?

[Designated Driver]

> Let's have a look.

Okay, here you go. Brace yourself.

I have read(and own about 2/3 of the following) given here in no particular order:

the blackjack sections(chapters) of Darwin Ortiz on Gambling, along with his Gambling Scams book, Dustin D. Marks' Cheating at blackjack and his "squared" book, Beat the Dealer by Edward Thorp, 2nd ed., Playing Blackjack as a Business by L. Revere, The World's Greatest Blackjack book by Cooper and Humble, Knockout Blackjack by Vancura and Fuchs, Playing Blackjack in Atlantic City and Around the World by Gaffney(I think), John Scarne's book on Gambling, Edwin Silberstang's book on Gambling, KISS guide to Gambling by John Marchel, the Everything about Casino Blackjack book, Allan Wilson's Casino Gambler's Guide, the Theory of Gambling and Stastical Logic by Richard Epstein, Winning Blackjack(or something) by Charles Einstein, Blackjack Your Way to Riches by Richard Canfield, Avery Cardoza's books, Martin Jensen's Winning Without Counting, John Patrick on playing Blackjack, Sklansky talks Blackjack by David Sklansky, A book on Casino Blackjack by Mason Malmuth and other(I believe), Million Dollar Blackjack, the Big Player and Two books on Blackjack By Ken Uston, Burning the Tables at Las Vegas by Ian Anderson, Basic Blackjack, Professional Blackjack and Blackjack Secrets by Stanford Wong, Blackbelt in Blackjack the 2005 ed. by Arnold Snyder, Blackjack for Blood by Bryce Carlson, Jerry Patterson's Blackjack Winner's Handbook(s), Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack 6th ed., A book on Casino Blackjack by C. Ionescu Tulcea, Walter Thomason's Twenty-first Century Blackjack, and the Ultimate Blackjack Book (I think), Progression Blackjack by Donald Dahl, The Complete book of Blackjack by T. J. Reynolds, Play Blackjack like the Pros by Kevin Blackwood, Frank Scoblete's Best Blackjack and Guerrilla Gambling, Henry Tamburin's Blackjack take the Money and Run and the blackjack sections of his general gambling books, Victor Royer's Powerful Profits from Blackjack book, John Gollehon's Blackjack book, Winning Blackjack by Stanley Roberts, I think Winner's Blackjack by Frank Scott, recently Blackjack Attack 3rd edition by Donald Schlesinger, along with numerous others that I borrowed from the library or read in a bookstore and cannot remember the title of. I have also read many internet based articles, and have basically read anything and everything written on paper or electronically published that I could gain access to.

I believe myself to have spent considerable time, money and effort over the past few years learning, and practicing how to beat the dealer and hence the casino at the game of blackjack or 21.

> The reason I posted 'My last post' is simply that you
> have already received great advice, which has been
> repeated & built on by many. You have received all
> the answers, it's really just up to you if you wish to
> accept them.

No problem. :-)

> I have no interest in convincing you beyond what any
> rational person should require.

You shouldn't have to, except I may not be a rational person. I am not sure, let me think about it. Hmmm. LOL :-)

> "Success in life is happiness. :-)"

> Considering the no. of rich & famous that commit
> suicide this should be a no brainer!

> "Rather unfortunate as I am a chronic depressive.
> :-("

> Perhaps like my mentor you should be focusing on your
> personal life more.

I will, after I become rich and can throw my money at the problem, if I am lucky.

> "I object. I am not arrogant, but pompous."

> For being unwilling to invest in a BJ sim, I'd say
> stubborn. Properly used & understood it will
> answer all your questions re: applying any system, the
> merit of any adaptations, profitability & risk,
> the bankroll required for any given game & your
> approach to it.

You're right. I am a little stubborn but not completely unreasonable, and given your advice I will consider this (purchasing a sim). Which do you recommend: SBA, CV, or some other one? Not to neglect John Auston and his masterful program and insightful comments given me here.

> "Sometimes I don't hear anything at all."

> Then why ask the questions, if you're unwilling to
> seriously ponder the answers?

That was a joke and perhaps not a very good one, but I do listen to(read) anything and everything posted in response to what I have asked, carefully pondering the meaning of their words.

Desi. D.

[thanks4thefish]

I will only give you my opinion of the ones I own.

Beat the Dealer by Edward Thorp, 2nd ed.

This book is important, the hi-lo tags & BS, published in the 66 version have survived 40 years. You should mention this to your Uncle.

Playing Blackjack as a Business by L.Revere

Featuring the count Uston used. A textbook for it's time.

The World's Greatest Blackjack book by Cooper
and Humble

Not a bad book, interesting anecdotes, fleshier than it's precursor BJ Gold. BJ Supergold is totally different & has some more stories. There is also another book which I haven't got, (How to win at BJ or something)

Knockout Blackjack by Vancura and Fuchs

A very popular running count. Not much else for people not contemplating this count.

Playing Blackjack in Atlantic City

Pretty restrictive to the games offered back then.
Chambliss/ Roginski's 'Fundamentals of BJ' is an extremely underrated book, very solid, if you can get hold of it.

Allan Wilson's Casino Gambler's Guide

Excellent explanation of Kelly, & roulette section is very good too.

the Theory of Gambling and Stastical Logic by Richard Epstein

Some excellent tables for BJ. I wish I had the math ability to appreciate it more.

Winning Blackjack(or something) by Charles Einstein,
(How to win at BJ)

Yeah, it's all there, but not much of a read, 1st publish of Hi-Opt tags from memory.

Blackjack Your Way to Riches by Richard Canfield

A very disappointing book, even for it's time, pretty empty.

A book on Casino Blackjack by Mason Malmuth

(BJ Essays) Worst written 'solid' BJ book I have. Incredibly repetitive, & extremely annoying. The guy keeps claiming original material, but there is none here.

Million Dollar Blackjack

This book turned me on. My mentor also, he still actually uses the APC! The stuff of dreams.

the Big Player

Ken's 'non fiction novel' of Million Dollar, good to lend to family members, as it's a straight read.

Two books on Blackjack By Ken Uston

One of my faves, the photo's are great, as is reading all the bullshit politics.

'Ken Uston on BJ' is also a good read.

Burning the Tables at Las Vegas by Ian Anderson

My fave part is when he talks of the US$50K hourly swings you can & will encounter at his level. Some great comportment tips.

Basic Blackjack

Good treatment of exotic rules, misleading title.

Professional Blackjack

Complete hi-lo system, a must for the majority of counters using hi-lo. Plenty of tables for different rules also.

Blackjack Secrets by Stanford Wong

I didn't think this book was great, it's OK. The advice is pretty basic.

Blackbelt in Blackjack the 2005 ed. by Arnold Snyder

Waiting to buy bundled with Big book of BJ, which should be released soon. The '83 version I've read. I'm a big fan of this book & Snyder generally, (which may not win me to many friends on this site!), as I've made quite a lot of money using his Red 7.

Blackjack for Blood by Bryce Carlson

Omega 2 level count is quite popular with some of the smarter counters out there. A good read, not as motivational as Uston, but still good.

Jerry Patterson's Blackjack Winner's Handbook(s)

Yeah there's been a few different books with the same title. Rather odd. A lot of target crap, but the 90 version I have has some rather nice info & diagram of basic shuffle tracking which was ahead of it's time.

Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack 6th ed.

A must have, even though the math is too advanced for me, there's still plenty of gold here. Before I had a sim, I used his table to work out BS for different decks, rules. I've also used his count for single deck play. Brilliant.

A book on Casino Blackjack by C. Ionescu Tulcea

Hmm, I have 'A book on Casino Gambling'. If it's the same one, it's just a brief treatment of each casino game.

Blackjack Attack 3rd edition by Donald Schlesinger

My eyes glazed over when I saw all the tables, but I expect it will be a very solid read. I've just been putting it off. Certainly a lot of effort gone into this book!

"I believe myself to have spent considerable time,
money and effort over the past few years learning, and
practicing how to beat the dealer and hence the casino
at the game of blackjack or 21."

So the question begs, "Why aren't you out there playing!"

You've certainly read more than enough to know it's viable. It's time to pick a system & go get 'em.

Don't wait for the perfect system first as:

a) Once you find the perefect system for you, the win rate will only be negligibly higher than any solid system anyway.

b) The system you begin with, doesn't have to be the system you use forever.

& c) Waiting doesn't put rice on the table.

"You're right. I am a little stubborn but not
completely unreasonable, and given your advice I will
consider this (purchasing a sim). Which do you
recommend: SBA, CV, or some other one? Not to neglect
John Auston and his masterful program and insightful
comments given me here."

Smart boy! I use SBA, as when I purchased it, it was supposedly the most powerful at the time, (in terms of simming many variables, & it can handle a running count).

I can't comment as to which is the best as I have only used the one program.

I think Karel's (SBA creator) pretty busy with his scientific research these days, & as you know Norm (CV) & John are pretty active on these boards, so really the choice is yours.

[Designated Driver]

Most of my comments(and questions) come after the booklist, but there are some interspersed in between.

Oh, and thanks for your interest in helping a new player.

> I will only give you my opinion of the ones I own.

> Beat the Dealer by Edward Thorp, 2nd ed.

> This book is important, the hi-lo tags & BS,
> published in the 66 version have survived 40 years.
> You should mention this to your Uncle.

> Playing Blackjack as a Business by L.Revere

> Featuring the count Uston used. A textbook for it's
> time.

Yes, it is a good treatise on blackjack.

> The World's Greatest Blackjack book by Cooper
> and Humble

> Not a bad book, interesting anecdotes, fleshier than
> it's precursor BJ Gold. BJ Supergold is totally
> different & has some more stories. There is also
> another book which I haven't got, (How to win at BJ or
> something)

> Knockout Blackjack by Vancura and Fuchs

> A very popular running count. Not much else for people
> not contemplating this count.

For the most part, I agree.

> Playing Blackjack in Atlantic City

> Pretty restrictive to the games offered back then.
> Chambliss/ Roginski's 'Fundamentals of BJ' is an
> extremely underrated book, very solid, if you can get
> hold of it.

> Allan Wilson's Casino Gambler's Guide

> Excellent explanation of Kelly, & roulette section
> is very good too.

> the Theory of Gambling and Stastical Logic by Richard
> Epstein

> Some excellent tables for BJ. I wish I had the math
> ability to appreciate it more.

Actually, I thought the math was pretty straight forward and very useful to facillitate a solid understanding.

> Winning Blackjack(or something) by Charles Einstein,
> (How to win at BJ)

> Yeah, it's all there, but not much of a read, 1st
> publish of Hi-Opt tags from memory.

> Blackjack Your Way to Riches by Richard Canfield

> A very disappointing book, even for it's time, pretty
> empty.

I agree, it was rather disappointing.

> A book on Casino Blackjack by Mason Malmuth

> (BJ Essays) Worst written 'solid' BJ book I have.
> Incredibly repetitive, & extremely annoying. The
> guy keeps claiming original material, but there is
> none here.

> Million Dollar Blackjack

> This book turned me on. My mentor also, he still
> actually uses the APC! The stuff of dreams.

I had originally thought of using Uston's APC, then thought better of it.

> the Big Player

> Ken's 'non fiction novel' of Million Dollar, good to
> lend to family members, as it's a straight read.

> Two books on Blackjack By Ken Uston

> One of my faves, the photo's are great, as is reading
> all the bullshit politics.

> 'Ken Uston on BJ' is also a good read.

> Burning the Tables at Las Vegas by Ian Anderson

> My fave part is when he talks of the US$50K hourly
> swings you can & will encounter at his level. Some
> great comportment tips.

Whoa, I missed that. Guess I have to go over it again.

> Basic Blackjack

> Good treatment of exotic rules, misleading title.

> Professional Blackjack

> Complete hi-lo system, a must for the majority of
> counters using hi-lo. Plenty of tables for different
> rules also.

> Blackjack Secrets by Stanford Wong

> I didn't think this book was great, it's OK. The
> advice is pretty basic.

I agree.

> Blackbelt in Blackjack the 2005 ed. by Arnold Snyder

> Waiting to buy bundled with Big book of BJ, which
> should be released soon. The '83 version I've read.
> I'm a big fan of this book & Snyder generally,
> (which may not win me to many friends on this site!),
> as I've made quite a lot of money using his Red 7.

Personally, I am only lukewarm about "the Bishop" but why do you make the above comment, on winning friends?

> Blackjack for Blood by Bryce Carlson

> Omega 2 level count is quite popular with some of the
> smarter counters out there. A good read, not as
> motivational as Uston, but still good.

> Jerry Patterson's Blackjack Winner's Handbook(s)

> Yeah there's been a few different books with the same
> title. Rather odd. A lot of target crap, but the 90
> version I have has some rather nice info & diagram
> of basic shuffle tracking which was ahead of it's
> time.

I think my uncle plays by TARGET or something like it, trying to spot hot tables and winning streaks to bet into.

> Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack 6th ed.

> A must have, even though the math is too advanced for
> me, there's still plenty of gold here. Before I had a
> sim, I used his table to work out BS for different
> decks, rules. I've also used his count for single deck
> play. Brilliant.

I don't understand most of the math either, but still make plenty of good use of it.

> A book on Casino Blackjack by C. Ionescu Tulcea

> Hmm, I have 'A book on Casino Gambling'. If it's the
> same one, it's just a brief treatment of each casino
> game.

> Blackjack Attack 3rd edition by Donald Schlesinger

> My eyes glazed over when I saw all the tables, but I
> expect it will be a very solid read. I've just been
> putting it off. Certainly a lot of effort gone into
> this book!

As for the other titles, I realize they are possibly more obscure and not written by "reputable" gambling/blackjack authors, but I do not believe that they should be dismissed on this fact alone. I guess my problem is that I usually do believe everything that I read. And in this case, they all claim to be experts and contradict eachother on many facts, even basic strategy sometimes! Who do I believe?

> "I believe myself to have spent considerable
> time,
> money and effort over the past few years learning, and
> practicing how to beat the dealer and hence the casino
> at the game of blackjack or 21."

> So the question begs, "Why aren't you out there
> playing!"

Well, as I have often been criticized for before, I do not really have a bankroll. Also, I live in a non-gambling jurisdiction(something not to be overlooked) and I am a bit(a lot) timid and not fully confident in my playing abilities for the time being. Remember, I am the perfectionist and really do enjoy studying the game. But I also like making some money too! Not to mention the fact that gambling is not generally viewed as an acceptable occupation by most.

> You've certainly read more than enough to know it's
> viable. It's time to pick a system & go get 'em.

Yes, after being obsessed with the game of blackjack for the past three and a half years or so, I would think so.

> Don't wait for the perfect system first as:

> a) Once you find the perefect system for you, the win
> rate will only be negligibly higher than any solid
> system anyway.

I have read this a lot, and have to say: I don't like it.
I want to play the perfect system that will give me a significant edge.

> b) The system you begin with, doesn't have to be the
> system you use forever.

Can I ask a few questions to elaborate on this? First off would you know if anybody does it the "right way" from the beginning? By this I mean playing a truly professional system, multi-level with side counts and of course a true count conversion?

And as this will be my first time playing(in a casino) I have read that beginners should flat bet while playing basic strategy just to get some experience. I understand the reasoning, but wasn't planning on it as I want to win, now. But what do you think?

> & c) Waiting doesn't put rice on the table.

You can say that again. And believe me when I say it is very, VERY frustrating.

> "You're right. I am a little stubborn but not
> completely unreasonable, and given your advice I will
> consider this (purchasing a sim). Which do you
> recommend: SBA, CV, or some other one? Not to neglect
> John Auston and his masterful program and insightful
> comments given me here."

> Smart boy! I use SBA, as when I purchased it, it was
> supposedly the most powerful at the time, (in terms of
> simming many variables, & it can handle a running
> count).

Yes, but a bit pricey.

> I can't comment as to which is the best as I have only
> used the one program.

> I think Karel's (SBA creator) pretty busy with his
> scientific research these days, & as you know Norm
> (CV) & John are pretty active on these boards, so
> really the choice is yours.

I guess I have to ask.

Thanks 4thefish, and if I didn't say... happy new year.
Desi. D.

[thanks4thefish]

"I had originally thought of using Uston's APC, then
thought better of it."

Multi level counts have a higher playing efficiency, which is why they are good for single deck games & to a lesser extent 2 deck. For shoes playing deviations are of less importance.

Uston used Revere's 3 level count, but recants his use in 'Ken Uston on BJ' where he states if he'd have known the small relative loss in win rate he would have probably used hi-lo for shoes.

"I am only lukewarm about "the Bishop" but why do you make the above comment, on winning friends?"

He is at odds with some of the notable names on this site, is all. Less said, the better It was said tongue in cheek as I don't think Arnold or the people here are so small as to try & divide the flock into 'who's on who's side'.

"I think my uncle plays by TARGET or something like it,
trying to spot hot tables and winning streaks to bet
into."

Yeah, you've got the gist of it. Hot tables can apparently be spotted as they have full ashtrays, (punters stay because they're winning), & other nonsense.

'As for the other titles, I realize they are possibly
more obscure and not written by "reputable"
gambling/blackjack authors, but I do not believe that
they should be dismissed on this fact alone."

Yeah there were some easy targets there, but having not read them, I don't want to trash them. As I said I managed to find some worthwhile material in Patterson.

The danger for the uneducated of course, is that they have no way of distinguishing the diamonds from the dust, & the downright dangerous misinformation.

"I guess my problem is that I usually do believe everything
that I read. And in this case, they all claim to be
experts and contradict each other on many facts, even
basic strategy sometimes! Who do I believe?"

You believe the collective wisdom of the better authors, the guys who are synonomous with the game. Where one author goes off on a completely different tangent, further examination is required & scepticism healthy.

I think you already have a good grasp on which authors to trust. The better authors tend to include each other in their bibliographies also.

As for basic strategy differences, this can usually be attributed to differing game benchmarks, or decisions that are so incredibly close the authors got different results on their computer trials. With modern sims it aint gonna happen.

Of course some authors simply don't know their stuff, or have tried to simplify it.

"Well, as I have often been criticized for before, I do
not really have a bankroll."

yeah, Uston's benchmark is 100 max units, so even for red chip spreading $5- $100, you're going to need 10K, & win rate won't be spectacular I'm afraid, probably no more than flipping burgers at McDonalds.

"gambling is not generally viewed as an acceptable occupation by most."

My wife had problems with that initially, but has gotten over it, the money probably helped It's a lot cleaner than most businesses is all I can say.

"I have read this a lot, and have to say: I don't like
it. I want to play the perfect system that will give me a
significant edge."

Then you still don't understand the relative differences between systems. You really need a sim to improve your understanding of the game.

Once you sim a game using different systems you'll see the win rate differences are only marginal. You'll see much greater difference with better pen., more aggressive spreading, or better rules, regardless of the system used.

"Can I ask a few questions to elaborate on this? First
off would you know if anybody does it the "right
way" from the beginning? By this I mean playing a
truly professional system, multi-level with side
counts and of course a true count conversion?"

As I stated my mentor played APC, day 1 to present. That's a 3 level count trued to half decks, side Aces.

"And as this will be my first time playing(in a casino)
I have read that beginners should flat bet while
playing basic strategy just to get some experience."

I disagree with this, just wasting time.

>Yes, but a bit pricey. (SBA)

For me spending $100 or so, on a sim that will help me get an extra five figures a year from a game is worthwhile. I have the same attitude to my books. $1000 spent on books is a bargain. Techniques to help from being barred, strategies, even just plain confidence & encouragement. Beside it's my interest & costs me a lot less than other interests I have that don't produce wealth.

Compare franchise prices, or 4 years studying & debate the relative cost.

Happy new year to you, & your resolution should be,
'I must not procrastinate'

[Designated Driver]

> Yes, actually. If you go back and read your own posts,
> you'll find a trend of fearfulness and uncertainty.
> For example:

Certainly well justified I would think, as only a fool rushes in to part with his money.

> 11/3
> I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the
> first time rich after only a few days, but I am not
> sure if I will ever be able to afford to return. And
> of course you know the dream is to go to Las Vegas and
> get rich and you try to play accordingly to reach that
> goal, however risky the behavior. Not even being able
> to afford to travel means you don?t have the resources
> to play. And condoning ?risky? behavior in order to
> try to leave LV rich is not an AP mindset. On another
> board, you have stated that you would play any bj
> winnings in a slot machine to try to win big bucks.
> That?s just flat-out gambling, not something that we
> support here.

I agree with you on the above(top) points.
Are you saying that I am wrong in thinking that playing a slot machine can be profitable, even when going for a large payout using leverage(casino money from other winnings)? If this is the case, then what are all of the slot machine books and systems(a couple of which you carry on this site) preaching? Money management: How to hold onto your money longer while you will inevitably lose it all anyway?

Letting alone my uncle for now, I have heard stories from some others who have won playing the slot machines. My grandmother and aunt to start with, along with a few others.

Now don't get me wrong, I wasn't planning on making this my muse(game of choice) and was only going to play to have the off shot at winning big, which I do not see to be possible playing either BJ or VP; even with huge bets. I think even an experienced and well bankrolled AP would have a hard time winning eight figures(i.e. $10,000,000) no matter how long they played.

And not to overstate the point here, but although I(and some other APs) may take interest in the playing the games and derive some sort of entertainment and pleasure from it, in the end MONEY is still the bottom line and BIG BUCKS the name of the game.

Anybody who is into gambling, AP or not is in it for the money, or it is not gambling.

> 11/3
> not only do I not have the neccessary bankroll, I am
> not mentally prepared. I am very conservative with my
> limited funds and am not really a gambler which is of
> course why I have never played for money before. You
> aren?t mentally prepared, have limited funds, and have
> never played in a casino before. It wouldn?t be
> prudent for anyone to try to talk you into going in
> and hitting those tables hard, if at all.

All true, but one need's to start somewhere, and that is usually at the beginning(the bottom) which is alright for me. If there is a another, better way to do it, I certainly do not know it. And if you do, would you let me know. :-)

> 11/9
> I know it is a long and slow process, but I wonder
> when I will ever know enough to feel confident and
> comfortable gambling my money and have been thinking
> that maybe I should just quit while I am still ahead,
> or at least not far behind. I think anyone responding
> to you is picking up on this sense of discomfort,
> which is prevalent in most of your posts, even if you
> don?t flat-out state it, as you do here. If you don?t
> feel you are ready, you really, really aren?t.

> 11/10
> I hope to one day play at the "Expert" level
> as defined by Stanley Roberts If your goal is to play
> at a level defined by Roberts, you are on the wrong
> board. He is not a reputable author, by any means, and
> this statement shows a naivete in your studies.

Didn't Stanley publish Ken Uston's books, at least MDB? And my "statement" may show my naivete, but I hope it would also reflect my wide range of reading upon the topic as well. My desire to learn at the very least.

> 11/25
> Finally when we got to a point of impasse on these
> above issues, I told [my uncle] not to argue with me,
> but to look at the bag of books written by the
> experts(reputable authors), which I had brought. To
> which he said, "The experts are only good at
> selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do
> it". I say this here with all due respect, and I
> tried to defend you, the experts of blackjack, but I
> cannot say that I have not had the same thoughts and
> still do on occasion from time to time(especially
> while on this site). Honestly, if someone is making
> more money selling books than they are playing bj,
> then they probably aren?t a reputable author. Aside
> from that, you just can?t argue with the math. You
> don?t play bj based on feelings or gut reactions, but
> on the math alone.

I definitely agree with you on that one, although I also find it hard to trust what I do not fully understand; the complicated math, computer sims and all. I would not trust what a computer told me even if it spoke in plain english!

> 11/25
> How would you refute this? Is card counting really
> only a crude estimation of the ratio of high cards to
> low? And if it is, how accurate,
> precise(quantitatively), meaningful, significant and
> reliable is this information? Is it really enough to
> to be able to beat the dealer consistently, winning a
> lot of money in the process? If you don?t yet know
> the answers to these questions, you aren?t ready to
> play.

Can you honestly tell me that during those long losing sessions you don't ever question the validity of BJ theory? I have read a lot of those kinds of books too. And I don't think you can be 100% confident, certain and ready for anything that you are about to do.

> 12/27
> Seeing that huge negative result does make me weep,
> and if this is the case then I cannot see how any
> individual BJ player can survive, let alone prosper.
> Again, you obviously aren?t mentally prepared to face
> the prospect of the negative swings, which may very
> well happen (The whole first 6 months of 2005 was a
> HUGE loss for me, and it?s extremely stressful).

Sorry about that. I hope the year 2006 will start off better for both you, and me alike. :-)

> To sum up, you haven?t given much indication that you
> are mentally prepared to play exactly as the math
> dictates, be able to accept your losses, and be
> diligent enough to play only the games that are
> mathematically sound (slots DO NOT fall into this
> category). I don?t think you?ve received any outright
> discouraging feedback (except maybe from me on the
> other board), but certainly no one is going to urge
> you to go out and hit the casinos right away, as much
> as possible, based on just this smattering of your
> posts above. It simply wouldn?t be responsible to do
> so.

I simply view slots as the only game where you can get a "life-changing" payback with a modest players wager. And as for the feedback, you are right, I have not received any outright discouraging comments(even from yourself) and I do truly appreciate anybody who has taken the time and interest to respond to any of my posts. Thank you. :-)

> We certainly wish you the best in your quest to be a
> player, if even for one weekend. But I think that the
> nature of your posts indicates that you simply aren?t
> ready to play for the kind of money that you seem so
> intent on winning. (I didn?t include it here, but you
> once wrote about a desire to become the best bj player
> in the world, surpassing Uston, MIT players, etc.,
> based on the amount of money you win.)

No, not based on the amount of monetary winnings, but on pure BJ skill. And you can never be ready to win the kinds of money I am intent on winning. I want to be the first trillionaire in the world(not all from BJ of course) and that one can never be prepared for. Only half kidding. :-)

> Anyway, I think you get the general idea of what I?m
> trying to say here. You are obviously earnest in your
> desire to learn, so keep reading, keep asking
> questions, and keep building that bankroll. You?ll
> know when you?re ready, and you won?t be questioning
> yourself like you have so much lately.

Well, I don't know about that. I am a skeptic by nature and always seem to find more reasons to question if not doubt things.

> Best of luck,
> Bettie

Heard you were feeling a little under the weather and hope you are feeling better.

Thanks, and later.
Desi. D.