Designated Driver: Thanksgiving ploppies sitting all around me

[Designated Driver]

Hi all, Happy Thanksgiving.

I have just come back from Thanksgiving dinner with my family and hope that you have all had as nice and pleasant a holiday as I have. The food was good as was the company and conversation although there was a little difference of opinion between my uncle and me about blackjack play.

My uncle has been going to Las Vegas a couple of times a year on average for the past 23 years and he says that he almost always come back a winner, being a few thousand dollars ahead. As I had written earlier, maybe a couple of weeks ago or so, he had invited me to go along with him, my sister and grandmother, now that I am of gambling age. I had accepted his invitation because I have been studying and practicing blackjack for maybe a couple years and because he had got a very good deal from the travel agency for airfare, room, food and transportation, along with the fact that I wouldn't be going alone, but with my family.

Tonight he asked me to bring some of my books that I have studied, and some cards to play or practice with. While we were waiting for dinner(my grandma was cooking) we talked a little about blackjack as he says that this is the game that he plays the most and is most successful at. But almost immediately he seems to have spoken of a lot of the "myths" and misinformation that have promulgated themselves in Vegas.

First he talks about money management and how important it is, to which I agreed, until he started speaking about betting systems. I found it difficult to disagree but what was I to say when he starts talking about positive progressive betting systems being used to win.

He says the only way that you can win at blackjack is to bet big when the table is "hot" and you have a winning streak. When I asked him how do you recognize when there is a "hot" table and you're on a winning streak, he says you just have to watch how other players are doing before jumping in to play and you must increase your bet when you are winning. And this led into his babble about how the skill of the other players will affect your own play. I mean when I told him about card counting and how I would back-count and "wong in" only on favorable hands, he told me you cannot do that, even in shoe games. And what sounded really stupid is when he said that when you are counting a shoe, you have to be careful and watch for players jumping in and throwing off all the cycles or regular flow of the game. And then he finally gave me his example of how the player at third base actually affects all of the others players at the table when he makes bad plays. I tried to explain to him how this was shown to be untrue by computer simulation and analysis, but of course he wouldn't listen to me.

He says that people go to Vegas to play streaks, then I asked him "But how do you know you're in a winning streak and when it is going to end?" And he just said, you have to recognize when you are winning and bet more and only a stupid person wouldn't do this, and that this is the only way to win. When I asked what do you do if you start off losing as is likely to be the case, he had no real answer except to say keep making minimum bets, switch tables or quit and wait for better luck.

My uncle says he has read some books and I think he plays a "decent", "close" basic strategy with few unintentional mistakes, but at the same time he also believes that it is okay to deviate from BS based opon a strong hunch or intuition. He says that he "casually" tracks the aces and fives, but I do not believe that this is enough to warrant changing basic strategy(playing decisions in multiple deck games) and I don't think he uses this information to vary his bet, given that he uses a progressive betting system. I tried to explain to him how the Basic Strategy was derived by millions of hands of computer simulation and combinatorial mathematical analysis and he said yeah, it works if you are going to play a million hands but for a few hundred or a thousand it doesn't mean anything and cites a specific example of using basic strategy which resulted in a loss. I then tried to explain to him the concepts of probability, fluctuation and variance but he basically dismissed this by saying "I have been playing for 23 years and I always win, and you play how you want and I will play how I want".

Finally when we got to a point of impasse on these above issues, I told him not to argue with me, but to look at the bag of books written by the experts(reputable authors), which I had brought. To which he said, "The experts are only good at selling books, and they do not/cannot actually do it".

I say this here with all due respect, and I tried to defend you, the experts of blackjack, but I cannot say that I have not had the same thoughts and still do on occasion from time to time(especially while on this site). But then I realize of course that I haven't done so either, but I do not claim to be an expert, at least not yet. :-)

What am I to make and say of my uncles comments and play? I mean I cannot, do not want to criticize his playing skills or preach to him about proper strategy, money management techniques(he greatly overbets his bankroll taking on huge risk), etc., but I believe his understanding of the game is all wrong. But also, how can he be so wrong and keep winning after all these years? I believe 23 years is not just luck, but some kind of consistent skill, but what skill, his play may not be terrible, but it certainly isn't good either. I also couldn't believe that he really seems to embody or believe in all the gambling/blackjack "myths" I have read about in my books, thinking... how can anybody believe any of this superstitious or rutual nonsense.

To end I just want to say it really was a nice thanksgiving, and I am glad that I went. But I am worried that it may be a "long" trip to Las Vegas if you know what I mean, my uncle and I are sharing a room along with different understandings and methods(styles) of playing blackjack.

I am thankful for you all for being here on this wonderful day, and Happy Thanksgiving.

Desi. D.

[Parker]

Most of us discovered early in our playing careers that trying to educate family, friends etc., on advantage play is at best a waste of time, and at worst can destroy relationships.

Don't try to convince your uncle that he is wrong. Let him play. It is people like him that keep the casinos in business, and allow people like us to exist.

Most men seem to believe that they are born with a natural ability to play cards, drive a car, shoot a gun, and make love to a woman. Disagree with them about any of these things, and you are asking for trouble.

As for his claim that he "almost always comes back a winner," this is called selective memory. His winning trips reinforce his beliefs and stick in his memory. His losing trips are brushed off with, "well, nobody wins all the time." He really does not know if he is a lifetime winner because he keeps no records (I would bet my bankroll on this).

So, enjoy your Thanksgiving, and enjoy your family. Your uncle is probably a wonderful, intelligent person, from whom you can learn much about many areas of life.

Just don't discuss blackjack with him. :-)

[ShoelessD]

Parker's post is right on the mark. Enjoy.

I would not classify your uncle as a Ploppy, however. He employs BS for the most part, therefore his EV is significantly greater than a Ploppy.

Ego's and self confidence are generally good things. Add up to date facts/knowledge with the ability to convey your ability to others without offending them is tricky. Teachers, who are great at this, have been underpaid for generations.

Play, and discuss, BJ with him. He just might learn from your play, and he may even be able to notice when you make an occasional error. Play....win....laugh....discuss. Life is too short to think we have all the answers.

[jgalt1]

It's possible he comes back a winner most of the time.

If his last 20 trips had him show a $100 profit on 18 trips, but lost over a $1000 on each of his losing trips he would be a net loser, but of course he remembered the winning trips.

Parker had it right that you don't know unless you've kept records.

Plus some consider it a win if they didn't lose what they expected. Example bringing $5000 and coming home with $4000 is a win for some if they "expected" to lose more of their $5000.

You're lucky in one way that at least your uncle doesn't think you're stupid doing that evil gambling.

[Praying Mantis]

> My uncle has been going to Las Vegas a couple of times
> a year on average for the past 23 years and he says
> that he almost always come back a winner

That's the "Macho Man" in him. Do you expect him to announce he almost always comes back a "Loser"? The male ego really shines at Thanksgiving

> Finally when we got to a point of impasse on these
> above issues, I told him not to argue with me, but to
> look at the bag of books written by the
> experts(reputable authors), which I had brought.

My advise...don't argue with him, either...you CAN'T win.

My brother is alot like your uncle. I learned long ago to not try to argue facts with him because unless HE believes the facts to be facts, they are not and you get nowhere.

Parker gave some good advise. Maybe on this trip together, you'll get some positive flux and win some $$ and he may start rethinking a bit.

Have a great trip and belated Happy Thanksgiving.

Regards,
PM

[Designated Driver]

> That's the "Macho Man" in him. Do you expect
> him to announce he almost always comes back a
> "Loser"? The male ego really shines at
> Thanksgiving

You're right, but I don't know. I thought he would announce the truth about whether he had won or lost thinking that he had nothing to gain or lose at this point. I also didn't think that he needed to protect his ego, after all we are all family, but I guess I was wrong on that one too.

> My advise...don't argue with him, either...you CAN'T
> win.

Sounds like good advice to me, to be used for a very "merry" christmas.

> My brother is alot like your uncle. I learned long ago
> to not try to argue facts with him because unless HE
> believes the facts to be facts, they are not and you
> get nowhere.

I guess to some people facts are just other people's opinions if they don't believe and agree with them.

> Parker gave some good advise. Maybe on this trip
> together, you'll get some positive flux and win some
> $$ and he may start rethinking a bit.

I hope so, because one of my biggest fears along with it being my first time playing, is that I will end up being a big loser even while playing perfectly and that I will confirm what my uncle has said(at least to him) and that he will berate and chastise me endlessly on the way back home.

And besides, being a relatively successful businessman he may not need the money, but as a not so successful college student myself, I certainly do! :-)

> Have a great trip and belated Happy Thanksgiving.

> Regards,
> PM

And a belated Happy Thanksgiving to you too,
Desi. D.