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Thread: Designated Driver: Getting back in the game, review and improvement for a returning BJ player

  1. #14
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re: Quiting while you're ahead, Making it to the Hall and retiring in style

    > I take it back -- I guess I'm using 130 index numbers.
    > Never counted them up before. They were easier to
    > memorize than I expected, actually! True to form, I do
    > indeed have suggestions for you! A while back I
    > created a spreadsheet designed to identify the EV
    > "slope" near each index number. In effect,
    > it would tell you how critical it is to be totally
    > precise with the index number for a given play.

    So you actually calculated your own indices? This sounds very interesting. I have practiced playing my modified zen count with TC to the nearest fraction of a half deck and consequently I am very concerned with the precision of the index numbers and have calculated them as decimal values slightly rounded to facilitate easier memorization. But knowing how precise they need to be in order to be accurate would be a great relief.

    Then,
    > for all the indexes with "mild" slopes, I
    > averaged the single deck figures for each index with
    > multi-deck ones. Finally, I rounded these figures to
    > increments of 5. You can memorize index numbers in
    > increments of 5 in "blocks," it's a hell of
    > a lot easier.

    Sorry about the cut above, I hope you don't mind. What do you mean by increments of 5?

    > So, I ended up with a single set of indexes for all
    > the standard rules, in increments of five. There are
    > about ten index numbers for which it pays to use the
    > unrounded figures, and a few more that you do need to
    > switch, depending on whether you're playing h17 or
    > s17, etc. I can post them here, if you want.

    Is that allowed? Well if you can please, you've made me quite curious.

    Are you saying you use a single set of index numbers for all games, multiple deck and single deck? And while I was only planning to use this Zen count for multiple deck play, I would like to see your results just so I can compare and get an idea of what you mean, if you don't mind:-)

    > Oh, by the way, what is a SCORE?, I think

    > It's a measurement of ev that takes risk into
    > consideration. Some playing conditions are
    > "wilder" than others (have higher variance)
    > and produce larger bankroll swings. If you have a
    > choice between a "tame" game that brings in
    > 2 units per hour, or a very "wild" game that
    > brings in 2.1 units per hour, the first one is the
    > better choice. Why? Because you can increase your unit
    > size until the game becomes just as "wild"
    > as the second, and end up bringing in more $. For more
    > on this, try a search for "standardized
    > comparison of risk and expectation," or buy BJA!

    > There are two ways to adjust the count, and you're
    > right: the one you describe has weaknesses. A slightly
    > easier way (though still too complicated to make it
    > worthwhile, IMHO):

    > For betting purposes, use the unbalanced true count.
    > In this method, you add +4 to your true count(assuming
    > aces are valued at -1 and you're playing single deck),
    > then subtract 1 for every ace that comes out. For
    > betting purposes, you're playing with an unbalanced
    > count with an IRC of +4; because the pivot point is
    > zero, you are justified to convert to true count just
    > like you would with a balanced count.

    > Look up my August 16th post, "Here's how you do
    > it. . . "

    I looked it up and while it looks good, I still don't really understand so I guess I'll ask a different question. For the above unbalanced true count, if I were counting the ace as -1 I would add +4 to the count for every deck to create the IRC, +24 for a 6D game? Wouldn't I also have to adjust all the index numbers to reflect the change in my IRC from 0 to +24? And this count would now be used for both betting and playing?

    What if I wanted to go the other way? I have heard about Table Hopper and his playing systems, T-Hop II being partucularly interesting to me because it has the same point values(tags) as the Zen count does except that it is ace neutral however, making it unbalanced. Brett Harris has also created the same system(Br-h II) and I have heard/read that it is possibly the most powerful and accurate system ever devised. I read the chapter contents before I tried to order the 1,000+ page system manual (despite its high cost) probably a couple of years ago now, but unfortunately it was out of print and unavailable. I had wanted to play this system in 2D and 4D games because of its supposedly higher PE due to the ace neutralization. After reading an article by Dr. Brett Harris on unbalanced true counts(concerning thier benefits, justification and calculation) I had "reworked" the Zen indices to make this change but now I have forgotten most of it and even how to do it.

    I was thinking, if I started with "standard" Zen then I would first want to neutralize the aces by adding one for each ace(making it an unbalanced system now) while simultaneously subtracting one from the IRC, zero in this case in order to counteract this change. This sounded reasonable for the most part to me.

    But then after reading K-O Blackjack and putting in some serious critical thought and computational reasoning, I changed my mind and arrived at a new solution. Now for DD games I plan keep my standard multideck indices and calculate my TC the same way, but set my IRC as -4, but now this doesn't sound entirely right to me either. I don't know, what am I to do?

    By the way, I know that AO II is again very similar and I just ordered the book(Blackjack for Blood) along with John Auston's sim results, but I am not completely satisfied with playing this system. If I remember correctly, in the overview to the system manual I alluded to above, Dr. Harris went on to discuss some of the effects of valuing the "intermediate" cards 7,8 and 9 and said that counting the 9 as a negative decreases both the BC and the PE. He also wrote about his simulation results, stating that his system(Br-h II) outperformed all other previously devised systems including Wong Halves, Hi-Opt II and AO II, if my memory serves me right.

    > and with a name tag that says, "Lolita."

    You can say that again. If I am going to lose my money to a Blackjack dealer, she had better have a name tag with the name "Lolita" on it. But hopefully I'll be able to do that after I win, if you know what I mean.

    Sorry this is a joke, and I hope it's appropriate and appreciated. But if it isn't I apologize to any who are offended.

    Sincerely, Desi. D.

    P.S. I am having trouble finding extensions to the titles to put in the subject box and of course I want to thank you Myooligan for all of your responses to my questions, I really do appreciate them.

  2. #15
    Myooligan
    Guest

    Myooligan: Re: Quiting while you're ahead, Making it to the Hall and retiring in style

    > So you actually calculated your own indices?

    The spreadsheet uses Griffin's formulas to approximate index numbers. I only used them to find out how "volatile" the ev is at the critical index (aka index number). Simulation is a significantly more accurate method of finding index numbers. CVData and SBA can both do this; for the record, these programs will produce index numbers at least as accurate, if not more accurate, than what you find in blackjack books. This is because they are state-of-the-art.

    This
    > sounds very interesting. I have practiced playing my
    > modified zen count with TC to the nearest fraction of
    > a half deck and consequently I am very concerned with
    > the precision of the index numbers and have calculated
    > them as decimal values slightly rounded to facilitate
    > easier memorization. But knowing how precise they need
    > to be in order to be accurate would be a great relief.

    Two questions: First, if you don't have a sim program to generate high-precision index numbers, your numbers (I'm assuming you're using Theory of Blackjack math) won't be any better than the ones in your books. Secondly, insurance might be the only index number for which it's helpful to go to the tenth's place. The spreadsheet finds only three other volatile plays that might be worth looking into: 16 v T, 13 v 2, and A,7 v 3.

    > What do you mean by increments of 5?

    See, for most of the index numbers, even less precision is acceptable. As you'll see below in my list of index numbers, I rounded all but a handful to the nearest 5. This cost me about 3 percent of my SCORE, although since that is a "pure" SCORE (no camo, etc.) I may actually be sacrificing even less than that.

    > Are you saying you use a single set of index numbers
    > for all games, multiple deck and single deck? And
    > while I was only planning to use this Zen count for
    > multiple deck play, I would like to see your results
    > just so I can compare and get an idea of what you
    > mean, if you don't mind:-)

    It would take me a while to dig through them and even if I did, I couldn't recommend you staking your bets on claims made by some random internet denizen. What you can do is purchase CVData, have it create a set of precise index numbers for each of the games you play, and compare the results with what you get when you use these index numbers instead.

    > I looked it up and while it looks good, I still don't
    > really understand so I guess I'll ask a different
    > question. For the above unbalanced true count, if I
    > were counting the ace as -1 I would add +4 to the
    > count for every deck to create the IRC, +24 for a 6D
    > game?

    yup.

    Wouldn't I also have to adjust all the index
    > numbers to reflect the change in my IRC from 0 to +24?

    No. Keep the original count for playing purposes. What you will change is the TC at which you increase your bet. Since you start your "betting count" at a TC of +4, you aren't going to increase your bets until at least +5. But again, to find out the exact numbers, you really need CVData.

    > And this count would now be used for both betting and
    > playing?

    No; and the reason is that aces are valuable as a betting predictor but not as a playing predictor.

    > But then after reading K-O Blackjack and putting in
    > some serious critical thought and computational
    > reasoning, I changed my mind and arrived at a new
    > solution. Now for DD games I plan keep my standard
    > multideck indices and calculate my TC the same way,
    > but set my IRC as -4, but now this doesn't sound
    > entirely right to me either. I don't know, what am I
    > to do?

    Hard to say. . . are we using K-O now? Not clear what you're asking here.

    > You can say that again. If I am going to lose my money
    > to a Blackjack dealer, she had better have a name tag
    > with the name "Lolita" on it. But hopefully
    > I'll be able to do that after I win, if you know what
    > I mean.

    or before. can't be picky.

    > P.S. I am having trouble finding extensions to the
    > titles to put in the subject box and of course I want
    > to thank you Myooligan for all of your responses to my
    > questions, I really do appreciate them.

    yer doin just fine and you're welcome.
     
    // Indices generated by SBA STRATEGY GENERATOR, Version 5.51
    // 1D Zen, semi-rounded, compromise matrix except volatile plays are precise for single deck
    // emulates casino play, e.g., no DD on BJ, always split aces
    // #######DDAS, Surrender tables haven't been altered######

    // NOTE: the indices are reversal for:
    // splitting 8,8 vs. T, 8,8 vs. 9, 3,3 vs. 7, and late surrender 17 vs. A up


    INSURANCE = 3; // Buy insurance if true count >= INSURANCE



    // 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A (Dealer's up cards)


    // hard standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
    DEFTBL HHT
    (
    5, 3, 1, 0, -3, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // hard 12
    0, -3, -5,-10,-10, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // hard 13
    -5,-10,-10,-10,-10, 99, 99, 99, 10, 10, // hard 14
    -10,-15,-15,-15,-20, 99, 20, 10, 5, 5, // hard 15
    -20,-20,-20,-99,-99, 99, 20, 10, 0, 4, // hard 16
    -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99) // hard 17

    // soft standing table (stand if >= number, hit if < number)
    DEFTBL SHT
    (
    -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99, 99, 99, 99) // soft 18

    // hard doubling table (double if >= number)
    DEFTBL HDT
    (
    99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // hard 7
    99, 20, 15, 10, 10, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // hard 8
    2, 0, -4,-10,-10, 10, 20, 99, 99, 99, // hard 9
    -20,-20,-20,-20,-20,-10,-10, -3, 10, 4, // hard 10
    -20,-20,-20,-20,-20,-20,-10,-10, -7, -4) // hard 11

    // soft doubling table (double if >= number)
    DEFTBL SDT
    (
    99, 15, 5, -5,-10, 99, 99, // A,2
    99, 15, 5, -5,-10, 99, 99, // A,3
    99, 15, 0,-10,-15, 99, 99, // A,4
    99, 15, 0,-10,-20, 99, 99, // A,5
    5, -5,-10,-20,-20, 99, 99, // A,6
    0, -2,-10,-15,-15, 99, 99, // A,7
    15, 10, 5, 3, 0, 99, 99, // A,8
    15, 15, 15, 10, 10, 99, 99, // A,9
    99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99) // A,T

    if (DAS) // doubling is allowed after splitting

    // splitting table for DAS (split if >= number, except reversals)
    DEFTBL SPT
    (
    -8,-12,-13,-19,-23,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 2,2
    -21,-24,-24,-99,-99, 99,-99, 99, 99, 99, // 3,3
    99, 16, 8, -7,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 4,4
    99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 5,5
    -4, -7,-10,-16,-19,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 6,6
    -18,-21,-21,-24,-24,-99, -5, 99, 99, 99, // 7,7
    -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99, 99, 14, -5, // 8,8
    -5, -7, -8,-12,-13, 13,-18,-17, 99, 0, // 9,9
    18, 14, 11, 8, 9, 25, 99, 99, 99, 99, // T,T
    -24,-24,-24,-24,-24,-21,-19,-18,-17,-15) // A,A

    else // doubling is not allowed after splitting

    // splitting table for no DAS (split if >= number, except reversals)
    DEFTBL SPT
    (
    15,-99,-10,-15,-20,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 2,2
    99, 99,-99,-99,-99, 15, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 3,3
    99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 4,4
    99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 5,5
    0, 0, -5,-10,-10,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 6,6
    -15,-15,-15,-20,-99,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // 7,7
    -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99, 99, 5, -5, // 8,8
    -5, -5, -5,-10,-10, 20,-15,-15, 99, 5, // 9,9
    20, 15, 10, 10, 10, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, // T,T
    -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99) // A,A
    endif

    // Late surrender table (surrender if >= number)
    DEFTBL LST
    (
    99, 99, 23, 20, 99, // surrender hard 12
    99, 99, 18, 10, 17, // surrender hard 13
    22, 17, 10, 4, 3, // surrender hard 14
    21, 12, 5,-99, -3, // surrender hard 15
    22, 9, 1, -7,-13, // surrender hard 16
    99, 25, 24, 21, 0) // surrender hard 17

  3. #16
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re:Quiting while you're ahead, not being left behind a fool in aCasino Hall

    > The spreadsheet uses Griffin's formulas to approximate
    > index numbers. I only used them to find out how
    > "volatile" the ev is at the critical index
    > (aka index number). Simulation is a significantly
    > more accurate method of finding index numbers. CVData
    > and SBA can both do this; for the record, these
    > programs will produce index numbers at least as
    > accurate, if not more accurate, than what you find in
    > blackjack books. This is because they are
    > state-of-the-art.
    > This

    > Two questions: First, if you don't have a sim program
    > to generate high-precision index numbers, your numbers
    > (I'm assuming you're using Theory of Blackjack math)
    > won't be any better than the ones in your books.

    Yes, I have used the figures found in Griffin's ToB along with the index numbers found in "Blackbelt in Blackjack" and a few other books. I converted the indices to reflect a True count calculated to the nearest half deck after Mr. Schlesinger's(Don's) recommendation, that if you are using a level-2 count then you should calculate your TC to the nearest half deck.

    > Secondly, insurance might be the only index number for
    > which it's helpful to go to the tenth's place.

    I was planning on playing a kind of practical Zen modification of the insurance count(the unbalanced -2 for tens and +1 for all others). If I calculated correctly, according to Professor Griffin's numbers, it would have an IC of about .9154 after the ace adjustment I had mentioned earlier. Theoretically, this is about the highest value I could get without keeping a seperate count solely for insurance purposes right?

    > spreadsheet finds only three other volatile plays that
    > might be worth looking into: 16 v T, 13 v 2, and A,7 v
    > 3.

    A,7 v 3. I assume you mean doubling on soft 18(A,7) v 3, is that a "new" close play? I do not remember it being in the "Illustrious 18" as the other two mentioned above are. I have heard that there are a few other relatively frequent and significant deviations from BS making up a so-called "Fabulous 22", would these plays be included in BJA 3? Oh, and not to miss the point, I know this is not what you mean by "volatile" play.

    > See, for most of the index numbers, even less
    > precision is acceptable. As you'll see below in my
    > list of index numbers, I rounded all but a handful to
    > the nearest 5. This cost me about 3 percent of my
    > SCORE, although since that is a "pure" SCORE
    > (no camo, etc.) I may actually be sacrificing even
    > less than that.
    >
    > It would take me a while to dig through them and even
    > if I did, I couldn't recommend you staking your bets
    > on claims made by some random internet denizen. What
    > you can do is purchase CVData, have it create a set of
    > precise index numbers for each of the games you play,
    > and compare the results with what you get when you use
    > these index numbers instead.
    >
    > yup.
    > Wouldn't I also have to adjust all the index
    > No. Keep the original count for playing purposes.
    > What you will change is the TC at which you increase
    > your bet. Since you start your "betting
    > count" at a TC of +4, you aren't going to
    > increase your bets until at least +5. But again, to
    > find out the exact numbers, you really need CVData.
    >
    > No; and the reason is that aces are valuable as a
    > betting predictor but not as a playing predictor.
    >
    > Hard to say. . . are we using K-O now? Not clear
    > what you're asking here.

    Sorry. No I am not planning to use K-O I never really liked the system's trade off of simplicity for power, but I used the book early on as a kind of primer for understanding unbalanced systems and the associated nomenclature.

    > or before. can't be picky.

    You're right and I guess not. Well, not yet at least.

    > yer doin just fine and you're welcome.

    Actually, while everyone has been quite helpful and welcoming to me, you especially Myooligan, my subject titles kind of reflect my frustrations. I know it is a long and slow process, but I wonder when I will ever know enough to feel confident and comfortable gambling my money and have been thinking that maybe I should just quit while I am still ahead, or at least not far behind. Even with all my research and practicing, I still feel somewhat ignorant and really inexperienced seeing what everyone else has done and knows about the game.

    Thanks for the strategy indices listed below, I will compare them with my own values and see where I can round off a little bit more since it won't really affect performance and probably drastically increase simplicity.

    Desi. D.

    P.S. Can I ask if you are a computer programmer or something? I am studying to be an engineer, but I am not doing too well or liking it that much(I'm not that good with computers, and like them even less), so I thought, "Blackjack, sounds good to me".

    > // Indices generated by SBA STRATEGY GENERATOR,
    > Version 5.51
    > // 1D Zen, semi-rounded, compromise matrix except
    > volatile plays are precise for single deck
    > // emulates casino play, e.g., no DD on BJ, always
    > split aces
    > // #######DDAS, Surrender tables haven't been
    > altered######
    > // NOTE: the indices are reversal for:
    > // splitting 8,8 vs. T, 8,8 vs. 9, 3,3 vs. 7, and late
    > surrender 17 vs. A up
    >
    > INSURANCE = 3; // Buy insurance if true count
    > >= INSURANCE
    >
    > // 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
    > (Dealer's up cards)
    >
    > // hard standing table (stand if >= number,
    > hit if DEFTBL HHT
    > (
    > 5, 3, 1, 0, -3, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // hard 12
    > 0, -3, -5,-10,-10, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // hard 13
    > -5,-10,-10,-10,-10, 99, 99, 99, 10, 10,
    > // hard 14
    > -10,-15,-15,-15,-20, 99, 20, 10, 5, 5,
    > // hard 15
    > -20,-20,-20,-99,-99, 99, 20, 10, 0, 4,
    > // hard 16
    > -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99)
    > // hard 17
    > // soft standing table (stand if >= number, hit
    > if DEFTBL SHT
    > (
    > -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99, 99, 99, 99)
    > // soft 18
    > // hard doubling table (double if >= number)
    > DEFTBL HDT
    > (
    > 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // hard 7
    > 99, 20, 15, 10, 10, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // hard 8
    > 2, 0, -4,-10,-10, 10, 20, 99, 99, 99,
    > // hard 9
    > -20,-20,-20,-20,-20,-10,-10, -3, 10, 4,
    > // hard 10
    > -20,-20,-20,-20,-20,-20,-10,-10, -7, -4)
    > // hard 11
    > // soft doubling table (double if >= number)
    > DEFTBL SDT
    > (
    > 99, 15, 5, -5,-10, 99, 99, // A,2
    > 99, 15, 5, -5,-10, 99, 99, // A,3
    > 99, 15, 0,-10,-15, 99, 99, // A,4
    > 99, 15, 0,-10,-20, 99, 99, // A,5
    > 5, -5,-10,-20,-20, 99, 99, // A,6
    > 0, -2,-10,-15,-15, 99, 99, // A,7
    > 15, 10, 5, 3, 0, 99, 99, // A,8
    > 15, 15, 15, 10, 10, 99, 99, // A,9
    > 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99) // A,T
    > if (DAS) // doubling is allowed after splitting
    > // splitting table for DAS (split if >= number,
    > except reversals)
    > DEFTBL SPT
    > (
    > -8,-12,-13,-19,-23,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 2,2
    > -21,-24,-24,-99,-99, 99,-99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 3,3
    > 99, 16, 8, -7,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 4,4
    > 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 5,5
    > -4, -7,-10,-16,-19,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 6,6
    > -18,-21,-21,-24,-24,-99, -5, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 7,7
    > -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99, 99, 14, -5,
    > // 8,8
    > -5, -7, -8,-12,-13, 13,-18,-17, 99, 0,
    > // 9,9
    > 18, 14, 11, 8, 9, 25, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // T,T
    > -24,-24,-24,-24,-24,-21,-19,-18,-17,-15)
    > // A,A
    > else // doubling is not allowed after splitting
    > // splitting table for no DAS (split if >=
    > number, except reversals)
    > DEFTBL SPT
    > (
    > 15,-99,-10,-15,-20,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 2,2
    > 99, 99,-99,-99,-99, 15, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 3,3
    > 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 4,4
    > 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 5,5
    > 0, 0, -5,-10,-10,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 6,6
    > -15,-15,-15,-20,-99,-99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // 7,7
    > -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99, 99, 5, -5,
    > // 8,8
    > -5, -5, -5,-10,-10, 20,-15,-15, 99, 5,
    > // 9,9
    > 20, 15, 10, 10, 10, 99, 99, 99, 99, 99,
    > // T,T
    > -99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99,-99)
    > // A,A
    > endif
    > // Late surrender table (surrender if >=
    > number)
    > DEFTBL LST
    > (
    > 99, 99, 23, 20, 99,
    > // surrender hard 12
    > 99, 99, 18, 10, 17,
    > // surrender hard 13
    > 22, 17, 10, 4, 3,
    > // surrender hard 14
    > 21, 12, 5,-99, -3,
    > // surrender hard 15
    > 22, 9, 1, -7,-13,
    > // surrender hard 16
    > 99, 25, 24, 21, 0)
    > // surrender hard 17

  4. #17
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: A few comments

    > A,7 v 3. I assume you mean doubling on soft 18(A,7) v
    > 3, is that a "new" close play? I do not
    > remember it being in the "Illustrious 18" as
    > the other two mentioned above are. I have heard that
    > there are a few other relatively frequent and
    > significant deviations from BS making up a so-called
    > "Fabulous 22", would these plays be included
    > in BJA 3? Oh, and not to miss the point, I know this
    > is not what you mean by "volatile" play.

    It's actually the "Catch 22," and is indeed covered in Blackjack Attack, 3rd Edition," along with a whole lot more. If you are serious about the game, you really need this book. It will also lead to a better understanding of Griffin's TOB.

    > Actually, while everyone has been quite helpful and
    > welcoming to me, you especially Myooligan, my subject
    > titles kind of reflect my frustrations. I know it is a
    > long and slow process, but I wonder when I will ever
    > know enough to feel confident and comfortable gambling
    > my money and have been thinking that maybe I should
    > just quit while I am still ahead, or at least not far
    > behind. Even with all my research and practicing, I
    > still feel somewhat ignorant and really inexperienced
    > seeing what everyone else has done and knows about the
    > game.

    Don't get bogged down in the math. While discussion of all the minutae of index generation, different systems, etc., is fodder for forums such as this one, the truth is that this isn't rocket science. Most of the advantage comes from simply chunking out big bets in positive counts. One of the most successful high stakes players I know uses nothing but straight KO to annually extract six-figure sums from the casinos.

    However, this is certainly not easy money. Most people are not emotionally equipped to handle the inevitable big swings. The realization that you have just dropped an amount at the tables that would easily purchase a brand new car imparts a curious feeling, most assuredly not a pleasant one.

    As I have posted many times, if you have amassed the bankroll required for serious advantage play, you almost certainly have already discovered an easier way to make money.

    > P.S. Can I ask if you are a computer programmer or
    > something? I am studying to be an engineer, but I am
    > not doing too well or liking it that much(I'm not that
    > good with computers, and like them even less), so I
    > thought, "Blackjack, sounds good to me".

    One final bit of advice: Stay in school. If engineering is proving to be not your thing (quite possible - engineers are a decidedly odd lot), then change your major, but get that degree.

    Otherwise, you may find yourself many years later wishing you had. Trust me on this one.

  5. #18
    Wolverine
    Guest

    Wolverine: What are your goals?

    Dear Desi D and others,
    I have been lurking on this thread and have enjoyed the discussion and "story" of how a beginning AP gets started. It has been interesting to reflect back upon my own start in counting. I'm not going to bore anyone with that story. Instead, I am going to ask some questions that hopefully will help others figure things out.

    First, as Parker has pointed out: if you have the serious cash it takes to play high $ blackjack (for profit, not as a GAMBLE), then you already have a pretty good method of making money. Maybe you don't like how you do it, or it is illegal and you want to leave that behind, nevermind the particulars, you have found a way to create money already. That leads me to my first question: "What are your reasons for wanting to 'go pro' in blackjack?"

    Second, as many have pointed out, the life of a BJ pro is not a story for the faint of heart. Spinning off income, rather than building a bankroll, is best left to income vehicles like bonds and CDs rather than blackjack. However, a few talented people have learned how to create income from playing this silly game. If you want to learn how to do that, you have already started doing the right things, but I would suggest that you find a pro willing to mentor you. There are some from this board that might be willing to do it, but as with any apprenticeship, you probably aren't ready (I'll get to that).

    Third, What are your goals? Seriously! As a successful businessman, I write down goals for myself and my business every year. I have never achieved 100% of my goals, but ALWAYS manage well over 50% achievement. You are gathering information to decide if being a BJ pro is the way to go. Maybe a quiet session with a pad of paper writing down your goals IN LIFE would be helpful. It doesn't sound like engineering is turning your crank at this point. Maybe playing BJ will be the thing you love to do and can earn a living at. However, before you jump into that stew, give some thought to what your goals in life are, what you are good at, what you aren't so good at. What do you like, what do you not like. Example: I prefer to stay up all night, and sleep all day. That characteristic may be helpful in a chosen career. I detest being in a "team" atmosphere. Knowing that will help you decide a career as well.

    After you have looked over your true goals in life, what you like, what you dislike, and your good/bad qualities, you can start to look at what you might be able to do for a "living." If those things still point to playing BJ, great. You've just figured out what 99% of the world hasn't: you've found a career you are going to be happy doing! Don't underestimate this concept. Contrary to some people's belief, MONEY does NOT buy HAPPINESS! Being happy brings happiness!

    Okay, if you are still thinking BJ is for you. Now you have to learn. Ask a pro to mentor you. Learn you craft. Lawyers don't argue in front of the Supreme Court 2 days after passing the bar. Doctors don't reattach a limb in their 2nd surgery. Engineers don't design the world's tallest building on their 3rd project. They need to PRACTICE and MASTER their craft.

    So far, many suggestions from some very wise people have told you in different terms: learn the ropes, practice so that it comes easy, and then get started AT A SMALL LEVEL in a real casino. Getting frustrated, losing money, losing counts, getting cheated, etc... at a small red spread isn't going to get you rich, but it will get you some REAL practice. Think of the little red chips as plastic tokens not worth 1 cent. They are a dime a dozen. Just a method of keeping score. If you accumulate them--GREAT. If you can't seem to keep any of them--TOO BAD! Learn. Evolve. Listen. Learn some more. Practice. Be aware. Listen. Learn. Practice.

    After playing "recreationally" to earn your stripes, and you are keeping more red chips than you are buying. You have a chance to make the jump. Back to Parker's point: where do you get your bankroll to turn some red chips into black chips, purple chips, etc...? By earning money and building a bigger bankroll--doing a REAL job. If you don't want to be an engineer--than DON'T BE AN ENGINEER. Find another well paying job using the goals I told you about above. You cannot jump to the "pro" level of blackjack with the needed bankroll in no time flat. You need to practice, learn, listen, and practice some more.

    Do you know how many golfers want to "go pro?" Tons! How many actually make it? VERY, VERY FEW! There are 150 men playing the US PGA Tour that keep their privileges each year. There are 1500 that pay $2,000 to enter the Q School to earn their chance to play on Tour. Those 1500 represent the most talented players any one of us knows. The guy who CONSISTENTLY shoots in the low- to mid-60's at a local "normal" course. He shoots in the high-60's on a course most golfers can't break 90 on. How does this relate to blackjack? You're odds of being a PRO are about the same. But you can overcome those odds by doing what you are already doing: listening, learning, and eventually practicing. It takes years to learn how to golf well enough to play on the PGA Tour. It will take years for you to become good enough to be a pro at BJ.

    bottom line advice: When others tell you to take it slow, they know what they are talking about. Practice on a computer (for so many reasons I can't name them all, trust us on this one) with a good program. I use the CVBJ suite. I love it. Amass an adequate bankroll to play reds optimally. Go out to many casinos and practice betting reds (so you don't get spotted or wear out your welcome). Don't get greedy. Play to learn, not to make money. If that happens, great. If it doesn't, use it to learn why you are not. And then keep learning and practicing. You will know when you are ready to "go pro."

    Sorry for the long winded diatribe. This whole thread just reeks of a young person trying to find something other than what you are asking about. You aren't happy in school, you see the glitz and glamour of Las Vegas and being a professional gambler, and you are willing to "go for it" without really thinking or knowing if you can make it. Find your goals, look at your talents, and decide if BJ fits in there. If it does, take a sabbatical from school and start down the road to being a pro for a year. If you are moving in the right direction, it will become evident. If you aren't, that will become evident too. I wish you good luck and happiness as you search for what you want to do in life.

  6. #19
    Myooligan
    Guest

    Myooligan: Re:Quiting while you're ahead, not being left behind a fool in aCasino Hall

    > Theoretically,
    > this is about the highest value I could get without
    > keeping a seperate count solely for insurance purposes
    > right?

    Sounds about right.

    > P.S. Can I ask if you are a computer programmer or
    > something?

    Nah, but I've taught myself a little to answer some ace prediction questions I had. But I'm with Parker -- all this talk about, "I don't like what I'm studying, so I'm considering becoming a professional blackjack player instead," is making me nervous. But I'm sure you've picked up on that already, from this forum in general.

  7. #20
    Designated Driver
    Guest

    Designated Driver: Re: A few comments

    > It's actually the "Catch 22," and is indeed
    > covered in Blackjack Attack, 3rd Edition ,"
    > along with a whole lot more. If you are serious about
    > the game, you really need this book. It will also lead
    > to a better understanding of Griffin's TOB.

    Okay, you guys have sold me on this one and I will order Blackjack Attack 3rd Edition, as it sounds like it has a lot of good information and is more up to date than most of what I currently have. Still, I wonder about the 2nd edition. Is there anything that was covered in the earlier volume that was later considered relatively "unimportant" and then omitted in the 3rd Edition? Remember when I said that my thirst for knowledge is pretty much insatiable and I want to know everything, always wanting more and never being completely satisfied? I mean if necessary, I would rather supplement my library and buy and receive them both together to get the used special price for the 2nd edition. I just don't want to miss anything important and end up losing money for something I didn't know.

    > Don't get bogged down in the math. While discussion of
    > all the minutae of index generation, different
    > systems, etc., is fodder for forums such as this one,
    > the truth is that this isn't rocket science. Most of
    > the advantage comes from simply chunking out big bets
    > in positive counts. One of the most successful high
    > stakes players I know uses nothing but straight KO to
    > annually extract six-figure sums from the casinos.

    Yeah, I had read something like this in a book by D. Sklansky and M. Malmuth. They had said that the most successful BJ player they knew was not necessarily the "best" BJ player that they knew and that this player used a relatively simple count with only a few strategy variations, but has won a significant amount of money on a steady basis for many years now. If I can say this without being overly ambitious or arrogant though; I want to be the best BJ player all-time, to go along with my winnings. Better than Kenny Uston, Ian Anderson, the damn MIT Blackjack team(sorry, I don't like MIT)and any other great big name player I haven't heard of. I hope to one day play at the "Expert" level as defined by Stanley Roberts, being able to either literally memorize the entire deck or more likely keep a "full" multi-parameter count of each individual card then make the necessary calculations for proper playing decisions. And believe it or not, I think I have actually found a reasonable, if not truly practical way to do this, however it still needs some work while I need a lot more practice. I just saw the word Matrix and thought I want to be like Neo and be able to beat the machines(play better than a computer). And lastly, I believe Richard Epstein was an aerospace engineer, sort or making his book a little bit of "rocket science", don't you think?

    > However, this is certainly not easy money. Most people
    > are not emotionally equipped to handle the inevitable
    > big swings. The realization that you have just dropped
    > an amount at the tables that would easily purchase a
    > brand new car imparts a curious feeling, most
    > assuredly not a pleasant one.

    > As I have posted many times, if you have amassed the
    > bankroll required for serious advantage play, you
    > almost certainly have already discovered an easier way
    > to make money.

    > One final bit of advice: Stay in school. If
    > engineering is proving to be not your thing (quite
    > possible - engineers are a decidedly odd lot), then
    > change your major, but get that degree.

    > Otherwise, you may find yourself many years later
    > wishing you had. Trust me on this one.

    Okay, I guess I'll do my best to finish up my classes, that is unless I happen to get lucky my first time out.

    Thanks for your "few comments" and many words I liked them a lot.

    My best,
    Desi. D.

  8. #21
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: A few comments

    > Okay, you guys have sold me on this one and I will
    > order Blackjack Attack 3rd Edition, as it sounds like
    > it has a lot of good information and is more up to
    > date than most of what I currently have.

    Good idea! :-)

    > Still, I
    > wonder about the 2nd edition. Is there anything that
    > was covered in the earlier volume that was later
    > considered relatively "unimportant" and then
    > omitted in the 3rd Edition?

    The chapter 10 charts were completely redone to reflect optimal betting. All the rest of the changes for BJA3 were simply addition of brand-new material and corrections of some minor errors and typos from BJA2.

    > Remember when I said that
    > my thirst for knowledge is pretty much insatiable and
    > I want to know everything, always wanting more and
    > never being completely satisfied? I mean if necessary,
    > I would rather supplement my library and buy and
    > receive them both together to get the used special
    > price for the 2nd edition. I just don't want to miss
    > anything important and end up losing money for
    > something I didn't know.

    Just buy BJA3. It has everything from BJA2 (exception above noted) and 50% more material.

    > Yeah, I had read something like this in a book by D.
    > Sklansky and M. Malmuth. They had said that the most
    > successful BJ player they knew was not necessarily the
    > "best" BJ player that they knew and that
    > this player used a relatively simple count with only a
    > few strategy variations, but has won a significant
    > amount of money on a steady basis for many years now.

    What an individual wins is never a sign of how good a player he is. You could play for years and your results would still probably be statistically insignificant.

    > If I can say this without being overly ambitious or
    > arrogant though; I want to be the best BJ player
    > all-time, to go along with my winnings.

    Good luck! :-)

    > Better than
    > Kenny Uston, Ian Anderson [AndersEn], the damn MIT > Blackjack
    > team(sorry, I don't like MIT)and any other great big
    > name player I haven't heard of. I hope to one day play
    > at the "Expert" level as defined by Stanley
    > Roberts, being able to either literally memorize the
    > entire deck or more likely keep a "full"
    > multi-parameter count of each individual card then
    > make the necessary calculations for proper playing
    > decisions.

    Stanley Roberts???? Stanley Roberts????? You just lost a LOT of points in your quest to become an expert! :-)

    > And believe it or not, I think I have
    > actually found a reasonable, if not truly practical
    > way to do this, however it still needs some work while
    > I need a lot more practice. I just saw the word Matrix
    > and thought I want to be like Neo and be able to beat
    > the machines(play better than a computer). And lastly,
    > I believe Richard Epstein was an aerospace engineer,
    > sort or making his book a little bit of "rocket
    > science", don't you think?

    A very important work.

    Don

  9. #22
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: A few comments

    > Okay, you guys have sold me on this one and I will
    > order Blackjack Attack 3rd Edition, as it sounds like
    > it has a lot of good information and is more up to
    > date than most of what I currently have. Still, I
    > wonder about the 2nd edition. Is there anything that
    > was covered in the earlier volume that was later
    > considered relatively "unimportant" and then
    > omitted in the 3rd Edition? Remember when I said that
    > my thirst for knowledge is pretty much insatiable and
    > I want to know everything, always wanting more and
    > never being completely satisfied? I mean if necessary,
    > I would rather supplement my library and buy and
    > receive them both together to get the used special
    > price for the 2nd edition. I just don't want to miss
    > anything important and end up losing money for
    > something I didn't know.

    Much as we'd like to move those copies of the 2nd edition, honesty compels me to point out that nothing in BJA2 was dropped from BJA3, although many sections were updated. BJA3 has about 100 additional pages, in addition to being printed in a larger format (with no increase in type size).

    The paperback version of BJA3 includes some tables not in the hardcover version. However, if you appreciate a finely crafted book, I would suggest grabbing one of those autographed copies of the hardcover version while you still can. I fully expect these to appreciate in value. Can you imagine what an autographed copy of Uston's The Big Player would fetch on Ebay these days?

    > Yeah, I had read something like this in a book by D.
    > Sklansky and M. Malmuth. They had said that the most
    > successful BJ player they knew was not necessarily the
    > "best" BJ player that they knew and that
    > this player used a relatively simple count with only a
    > few strategy variations, but has won a significant
    > amount of money on a steady basis for many years now.
    > If I can say this without being overly ambitious or
    > arrogant though; I want to be the best BJ player
    > all-time, to go along with my winnings. Better than
    > Kenny Uston, Ian Anderson, the damn MIT Blackjack
    > team(sorry, I don't like MIT)and any other great big
    > name player I haven't heard of. I hope to one day play
    > at the "Expert" level as defined by Stanley
    > Roberts, being able to either literally memorize the
    > entire deck or more likely keep a "full"
    > multi-parameter count of each individual card then
    > make the necessary calculations for proper playing
    > decisions. And believe it or not, I think I have
    > actually found a reasonable, if not truly practical
    > way to do this, however it still needs some work while
    > I need a lot more practice. I just saw the word Matrix
    > and thought I want to be like Neo and be able to beat
    > the machines(play better than a computer). And lastly,
    > I believe Richard Epstein was an aerospace engineer,
    > sort or making his book a little bit of "rocket
    > science", don't you think?

    All well and good, but keep in mind that the actual counting of the cards is the easy part. The tough part is weathering the inevitable bankroll swings, and finding casinos that will allow you to play your game.

    Once you gain some "live fire" experience in the casinos, you may decide that that added complexities of a multi-level count, etc., are simply not worth the additional mental strain for the relatively small increase in EV.

    As I have often observed, the increase in EV from finding creative ways to increase your bet spread and/or avoid playing in negative counts will dwarf anything gained from learning a complex counting system.

    > Okay, I guess I'll do my best to finish up my classes,
    > that is unless I happen to get lucky my first time
    > out.

    Good. Keep in mind that this can certainly be done on a part-time basis. The overwhelming majority of counters do just that. In fact, I personally know several people who are "working their way through college" at the blackjack tables. :-)

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BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.