Designated Driver: Getting back in the game, review and improvement for a returning BJ player

[Designated Driver]

I hope this is the right place to post this message as it doesn't really fit anywhere else, so here goes. After getting an invitation to Las Vegas from my uncle I have regained interest in blackjack advantage play. I had studied and praticed blackjack for about two and a half years with the intention of maybe becoming a professional player, but have never done so as I have been pursuing more "traditional and acceptable" endeavors such as school and work. Honestly this isn't going too well and I am not all that eager to continue such a lifestyle because I am disinterested in my classes and hate my low-paying job. This invitation from my uncle seems like the perfect opportunity to actually apply my knowledge of the game of blackjack and hopefully profit considerably.

While I am optimistic about my future trip, I do still have concerns about playing and wagering real money(for the first time) in a casino environment. As I said I have not done anything serious concerning blackjack recently and wonder if I will be ready by the time the trip comes up. Yesterday I reviewed Basic Strategy and it came back pretty easily and I plan to practice the basic card counting drills later today. I want to play an advanced level-2 system but I am really worried about certain techniques I have not practiced before, like shuffle tracking, ace sequencing etc. as I have heard they are much more powerful.

I have browsed th RGE catalog and saw a few books on these topics but I want to know if they are worth investing in. I have read most of the "classic" books and they provide a good foundation for serious blackjack players, but I lament the fact that to me they only take you to an intermediate skill level, maybe. Unfortunately I have to say that I am mostly disappointed by most of my reading which consists of everything I can get access to, found in libraries, bookstores and the internet and this includes most of the "big name" titles of course. I also watch every TV program on blackjack and gambling in general.

I guess my question is how can I go further. I will of course practice and review my previous blackjack skills and knowledge, but frankly I am not satisfied and comfortable with this alone if I am going to be wagering real money in a real casino.

Desi D.

[Myooligan]

I just went on my first real trip, after five years of on again-off again research and practice. I ended up winning a little, but more importantly, the trip taught me to be a little more realistic about blackjack. Hopefully some of what I'm going to say will speak to your situation.

First off, you should know what you're getting into financially. If you do some research on risk of ruin, you'll find that you need a bankroll of about $1500-$2000 to play at the red chip level. So people see this and think, "Ok, I'll put up two grand. Sure, I'll only be making $10 an hour, but I'd rather make $10 an hour playing blackjack than working some shitty job." But it doesn't work out that way. Some of that $10 per hour goes to tips, some is lost due to lack of skill, and anything that's left (and more) goes into trip expenses. After crunching some numbers, my estimate is that I have to get into green chip play in order to "net" an hourly win that matches my wages from work. And to play green, I need a $10,000 bank. The thought occurs to me that my wages don't require a $10,000 bank to arrive in my checking account every two weeks, nor are they subject to a 13.5% risk of ruin.

I couldn't gauge whether that stuff would be new to you or not; if so, I highly recommend Don's Blackjack Attack as a place to learn about ruin. If not. . . Once you've learned the system well at the computer, you've done all the stats research so you know what you're getting into from an investment point of view, and you've read plenty of books to get a more subjective feel for what it's all about, you're not going to get any more comfortable.

If you haven't done those three things, there's a good reason you don't feel comfortable wagering real money -- cuz it'd be a dumb idea at this point. But if you have. . . Actually, that was the other thing that struck me about real life play. I felt nervous pretty much the whole 12 hours of playing time I logged, and that was more of a drain on me than anticipated. But I can't imagine any way around that. You're gonna feel nervous for awhile. I'm sure it eases up with experience. I can tell you I learned a ton from those 12 hours. They were well worth their negative net ev.

Best of luck, D. Let us know what you end up deciding.

> I hope this is the right place to post this message as
> it doesn't really fit anywhere else, so here goes.
> After getting an invitation to Las Vegas from my uncle
> I have regained interest in blackjack advantage play.
> I had studied and praticed blackjack for about two and
> a half years with the intention of maybe becoming a
> professional player, but have never done so as I have
> been pursuing more "traditional and
> acceptable" endeavors such as school and work.
> Honestly this isn't going too well and I am not all
> that eager to continue such a lifestyle because I am
> disinterested in my classes and hate my low-paying
> job. This invitation from my uncle seems like the
> perfect opportunity to actually apply my knowledge of
> the game of blackjack and hopefully profit
> considerably.

> While I am optimistic about my future trip, I do still
> have concerns about playing and wagering real
> money(for the first time) in a casino environment. As
> I said I have not done anything serious concerning
> blackjack recently and wonder if I will be ready by
> the time the trip comes up. Yesterday I reviewed Basic
> Strategy and it came back pretty easily and I plan to
> practice the basic card counting drills later today. I
> want to play an advanced level-2 system but I am
> really worried about certain techniques I have not
> practiced before, like shuffle tracking, ace
> sequencing etc. as I have heard they are much more
> powerful.

> I have browsed th RGE catalog and saw a few books on
> these topics but I want to know if they are worth
> investing in. I have read most of the
> "classic" books and they provide a good
> foundation for serious blackjack players, but I lament
> the fact that to me they only take you to an
> intermediate skill level, maybe. Unfortunately I have
> to say that I am mostly disappointed by most of my
> reading which consists of everything I can get access
> to, found in libraries, bookstores and the internet
> and this includes most of the "big name"
> titles of course. I also watch every TV program on
> blackjack and gambling in general.

> I guess my question is how can I go further. I will of
> course practice and review my previous blackjack
> skills and knowledge, but frankly I am not satisfied
> and comfortable with this alone if I am going to be
> wagering real money in a real casino.

> Desi D.

[Francis Salmon]

Sorry, to take your illusions but you won't become a professional player from one day to another.It's not only because you probably don't have the necessary bankroll. The main thing is that you are not mentally prepared for it.
You should tune down your ambitions for this first trip and just try to break even.I would say you should play the cheapest tables and never bet more than $50 on a hand.You have to get used to lose a lot of money in a short period of time. If you move too fast you rapidly lose control.
Choose a level-one system for starting otherwise you're too much absorbed with keeping the count.
Don't even think about using advanced techniques like shuffle tracking let alone ace sequencing.These are possible only under particular circumstances and require skills that you certainly don't have at this stage.
In later trips as you get more and more comfortable with playing you can slowly move up the ladder, play higher stakes and in a distant future think about becoming professional. Now is not the time for it.

Francis Salmon

[Sun Runner]

> If you do some research on risk of ruin,
> you'll find that you need a bankroll of about
> $1500-$2000 to play at the red chip level.

> So people see this and think, "Ok, I'll put up two grand.
> Sure, I'll only be making $10 an hour ...

Just to be clear, you may be 'making' $10 an hour and you may be happy with the ROR you have built into your plan, but that risk of ruin assumes that the earnings ($10 an hour) are plowed back into the bank roll and not taken out to eat with, sleep with, or be merry with.

Even if it were not so, and you 'take home' $10 an hour on a $2K BR, where is that gonna get you? A year later you still have the $2K, you've spent the $10 an hour surviving, and what?

You might decide to move to LV but I don't think you have a chance in hell of grinding it out, initially, on a small bankroll. If you do make a move, you need to live as frugal as possible, get some kinda job to provide some kinda income, and be absolutely relentless in scouring for advantages.

I hate to refer you to this as it might be like throwing gasoline on a fire, but go to blackjackforumonline.com and find an interview there with Daryl Purpose. You will probably relate to it all to well. Your biggest asset is being single, being youg, and having no real responsibility to anyone but yourself (I'm guessing.)

Keep in mind, this guy is probably inately smarter than most of us, he studied hard and long to play almost perfect blackjack, and the game today is not as forgiving as it was then (I don't think.)

Good luck in whatever it is you decide to do.

[Sonny]

Sun Runner already said much of what you need to hear, but I would like to add a few things. I encourage you to try full time play, but I urge you not to jump in before you are ready. You would be better off using this trip as a "test run" and gain as much playing experience as you can before you make up your mind.

> I do still have concerns about playing
> and wagering real money (for the first
> time) in a casino environment.

Rightfully so. I felt nervous before every session for my first year. If you are trying to live off of your (hopeful) winnings and stressing about our ROR it will only be worse. It will be a while before you are comfortable with your skills. You need to build up your "blackjack callous" before you think about playing for a living. You need to experience the wild bankroll swings, sweaty pit bosses, rambunctious ploppies, terrible playing conditions, and everything else that goes along with full time play. You will lose for several days in a row and tell yourself "Counting is not enough! I need to learn shuffle tracking, or sequencing, or front loading, or SOMETHING!"

You may also want to keep two separate bankrolls - one for blackjack and one for living expenses. You may lose money playing blackjack for months at a time and you will be glad to have some steady money reserved for food. You will also feel better knowing that you are not digging into your bankroll and increasing your ROR every time you buy a meal. As Sun Runner said, if you spend every penny that you earn without reinvesting it into your bankroll you will be sorry. You will not be earning any money and your ROR will rise to 100%.

Before you try to grind out a living on a $2K bankroll you absolutely MUST read the following article. It covers just about everything you will need to know and I think you will find it very useful:

http://www.bjrnet.com/archive/BlackjackTherapy.htm

-Sonny-

Blackjack Therapy

[Designated Driver]

> I just went on my first real trip, after five years of
> on again-off again research and practice. I ended up
> winning a little, but more importantly, the trip
> taught me to be a little more realistic about
> blackjack. Hopefully some of what I'm going to say
> will speak to your situation.

Congratulations on your gain in funds and experience, I hope I will be able to fare as well on my first time out.

> First off, you should know what you're getting into
> financially. If you do some research on risk of ruin,
> you'll find that you need a bankroll of about
> $1500-$2000 to play at the red chip level. So people
> see this and think, "Ok, I'll put up two grand.
> Sure, I'll only be making $10 an hour, but I'd rather
> make $10 an hour playing blackjack than working some
> shitty job." But it doesn't work out that way.

While I do enjoy the game and the theory behind advantage play, needing $2,000 just to make $10 an hour playing blackjack sounds like a pretty shitty job to me and I hope it doesn't work out that way. But I'd bet on that reality, it would probably have less risk and whole lot more reward.

> Some of that $10 per hour goes to tips, some is lost
> due to lack of skill, and anything that's left (and
> more) goes into trip expenses. After crunching some
> numbers, my estimate is that I have to get into green
> chip play in order to "net" an hourly win
> that matches my wages from work. And to play green, I
> need a $10,000 bank. The thought occurs to me that my
> wages don't require a $10,000 bank to arrive in my
> checking account every two weeks, nor are they subject
> to a 13.5% risk of ruin.

My wages are just above the red chip level and a little(or a lot) of risk seems reasonable to me, if it is a calculated risk.

> I couldn't gauge whether that stuff would be new to
> you or not; if so, I highly recommend Don's Blackjack
> Attack as a place to learn about ruin.

I have read part of BA 2 while in the bookstore and it looked a bit esoteric, arcane and sorry to say superfluous, but this was probably because I was not yet at a level to appreciate the contents. I have been considering purchasing BA 3 but wonder what it contains and if it includes everything in BA 2 or if I would benefit significantly from and therefore buy both. I wanted to ask this in my first post so that is why I wondered if this was the right place to post this earlier. Can anyone give me a little sneak peak, and tell me what the general contents are so I can have some specific information before I make my purchase?

Although I have not done anything serious lately, I would consider myself to be an intermediate player adept in counting, money management techniques, betting and playing camouflage. But most importantly I think I am aware of my weaknesses, my ignorance and areas for needed improvement.

Being mathematically inclined, I also want to know the mathematics and technical aspects behind the development of blackjack systems.

Would you recommend BA 3 for this? If not, what title?

If not. . . Once you've learned the system well at the computer,
> you've done all the stats research so you know what
> you're getting into from an investment point of view,
> and you've read plenty of books to get a more
> subjective feel for what it's all about, you're not
> going to get any more comfortable.

I have done quite a bit of the latter two and very little of the first. Considering I need to save every dime to make up my playing stake, do you think I should make an investment and get some software to run some sims and other stuff like that?

> If you haven't done those three things, there's a good
> reason you don't feel comfortable wagering real money
> -- cuz it'd be a dumb idea at this point.

I agree that it would be dumb to go and play being entirely unprepared, so that is why I am taking this time to refresh my knowledge and skill before I do. Having $2,000 to play blackjack and losing $10 an hour is not only dumb, it sounds like a really shitty job to me. LOL!

But if you have. . . Actually, that was the other thing that
> struck me about real life play. I felt nervous pretty
> much the whole 12 hours of playing time I logged, and
> that was more of a drain on me than anticipated. But I
> can't imagine any way around that. You're gonna feel
> nervous for awhile. I'm sure it eases up with
> experience. I can tell you I learned a ton from those
> 12 hours. They were well worth their negative net ev.

> Best of luck, D. Let us know what you end up deciding.

Thanks for the response, it gave me some insight and perspective on the whole experience to come. And as for my decision I probably won't know until I'm watching my uncle sitting at the tables. But if worst comes to worst I guess I can always enjoy the change of scenery and wait another couple of years to become a winner.

Desi. D.

[Designated Driver]

> Just to be clear, you may be 'making' $10 an hour and
> you may be happy with the ROR you have built into your
> plan, but that risk of ruin assumes that the earnings
> ($10 an hour) are plowed back into the bank roll and
> not taken out to eat with, sleep with, or be merry
> with.

> Even if it were not so, and you 'take home' $10 an
> hour on a $2K BR, where is that gonna get you? A year
> later you still have the $2K, you've spent the $10 an
> hour surviving, and what?

Well what do you get when you row, row, row your boat gently upstream? A merrily, merrily, merrily life is just insane...a dream.

> You might decide to move to LV but I don't think you
> have a chance in hell of grinding it out, initially,
> on a small bankroll. If you do make a move, you need
> to live as frugal as possible, get some kinda job to
> provide some kinda income, and be absolutely
> relentless in scouring for advantages.

Luckily I am just going to Vegas as a vacation trip with some of my family and I have never seriously thought about moving to LV, but you never know. However, all I can say is "Thank goodness my room and food will be all paid for up front with the roundtrip airfare."

> I hate to refer you to this as it might be like
> throwing gasoline on a fire, but go to
> blackjackforumonline.com and find an interview there
> with Daryl Purpose. You will probably relate to it all
> to well.

Your biggest asset is being single, being
> youg, and having no real responsibility to anyone but
> yourself (I'm guessing.)

You guessed right, but I'd pay a little money just to grow up a bit, find a girlfriend and acquire the requisite responibility.

> Keep in mind, this guy is probably inately smarter
> than most of us, he studied hard and long to play
> almost perfect blackjack, and the game today is not as
> forgiving as it was then (I don't think.)

> Good luck in whatever it is you decide to do.

Thanks for the luck and I appreciate the comments.

Desi. D.

[Designated Driver]

> Sorry, to take your illusions but you won't become a
> professional player from one day to another.It's not
> only because you probably don't have the necessary
> bankroll. The main thing is that you are not mentally
> prepared for it.
> You should tune down your ambitions for this first
> trip and just try to break even.

To break even would be to lose money because I paid more than I could afford just to make the trip(not to mention my bankroll which at this point is virtually non-existant), which I view as the expense for a business trip.

I would say you should play the cheapest tables and never bet more than $50 on a hand.

Good point, I definately planned to start out at low stakes, but even this might be too rich for my blood.

You have to get used to lose a lot of money
> in a short period of time. If you move too fast you
> rapidly lose control.

Well fortunately or not, I will not be able to lose a lot of money as I don't have a lot of money to start with. But at least that way I will not lose too fast(in terms of dollars) and retain control of myself.

> Choose a level-one system for starting otherwise
> you're too much absorbed with keeping the count.

Not to brag about my admittedly unpolished skills or demean anybody who plays such a level-1 system, I found playing it(K-O, Hi-Lo, and Hi-Opt) to be kind of slow and boring without enough challenge to keep my mind stimulated.
I was actually quite comfortable and accurate playing an advanced level-2 count (with two side counts) using the full strategy matrix for both betting and playing decisions, including insurance. But I did this about a year ago now, and of course I have never done this in a casino playing for real money.

> Don't even think about using advanced techniques like
> shuffle tracking let alone ace sequencing.These are
> possible only under particular circumstances and
> require skills that you certainly don't have at this
> stage.

I think about such advanced techniques because I have heard they are much more powerful(profitable) and view card counting as merely the foundation of advantage play used steadily in the background to keep the game close while requiring more advanced techniques such as those mentioned above(shuffle tracking and ace sequencing) to actually win at the game of blackjack as it is played in casinos today. Am I correct in this assessment or is counting alone adequate? This is a very important question to me as it is one of the primary questions, the answer which I am not certain of which deters me from playing confidently.

> In later trips as you get more and more comfortable
> with playing you can slowly move up the ladder, play
> higher stakes and in a distant future think about
> becoming professional. Now is not the time for it.

You are probably right about that, but how can I say this after reading all the posts everyone has written in response to my initial? I certainly do not expect to leave Las Vegas for the first time rich after only a few days, but I am not sure if I will ever be able to afford to return. And of course you know the dream is to go to Las Vegas and get rich and you try to play accordingly to reach that goal, however risky the behavior.

> Francis Salmon

Thank you Francis, I do really appreciate your response as a voice of reason and will try to heed you advice. And you know what, I might just chicken out when I get there because you're right. In the first line you say that not only do I not have the neccessary bankroll, I am not mentally prepared. I am very conservative with my limited funds and am not really a gambler which is of course why I have never played for money before. I am an expert at one thing though: Do Not Play with Scared Money! hence I sit eagerly and a little uneasily on the sidelines of the blackjack tables.

I apologize and ask that you please pardon my poor spelling and questionable punctuation.

Desi. D.

[Myooligan]

> Congratulations on your gain in funds and experience,
> I hope I will be able to fare as well on my first time
> out.

Thankyou, and I hope so as well!

> While I do enjoy the game and the theory behind
> advantage play, needing $2,000 just to make $10 an
> hour playing blackjack sounds like a pretty shitty job
> to me and I hope it doesn't work out that way. But I'd
> bet on that reality, it would probably have less risk
> and whole lot more reward.

On what basis would you make such a bet? I mean, have you crunched some numbers yourself and projected a different estimate? Is it a semi-intuition based on what you do know about the game?

I was incredulous about the $2000 figure when another player mentioned it to me a while back, but it's a mathematically sound estimate. Bear with me for a short analysis of why:

The game I play, under ideal(no camouflage) sim conditions, returns a win rate of roughly 3.5 units per 100 hands, with a standard deviation of 2.75/Hand. With a bank of $2000 (400 units), I still have a 2.5% chance of losing ALL OF IT. At $1500, or 300 units, my risk of ruin becomes 6.2%; and at a paltry $1000, I'm looking at a 15.7% chance of losing it all.

These numbers should be seen as upper-limits of what you can shoot for. My system is a level two count. The costs of camouflage and imperfect play will necessarilly give you lower returns. Moreover, these sorts of returns are considered "excellent" in terms of available playing conditions.

As Parker says, card counting is not for the feint of heart. Even red chip play.

> My wages are just above the red chip level and a
> little(or a lot) of risk seems reasonable to me, if it
> is a calculated risk.

Hopefully, some of this will help you make the proper calculations. And maybe you'll decide, yeah, I only have $400 and I know there's a good chance I'll bust, but I'm going to give it a go anyway. My point is, from an investment standpoint, it would only make sense to try at all if that $400 is an initial chunk of a larger stake you are willing to eventually dedicate towards blackjack.

> I have read part of BA 2 while in the bookstore and it
> looked a bit esoteric, arcane and sorry to say
> superfluous, but this was probably because I was not
> yet at a level to appreciate the contents. I have been
> considering purchasing BA 3 but wonder what it
> contains and if it includes everything in BA 2 or if I
> would benefit significantly from and therefore buy
> both. I wanted to ask this in my first post so that is
> why I wondered if this was the right place to post
> this earlier. Can anyone give me a little sneak peak,
> and tell me what the general contents are so I can
> have some specific information before I make my
> purchase?

The risk of ruin numbers came quoted above came from BJA, along with a discussion of what risk of ruin means, (aimed at people with your experience or more). You'll also find plenty of comparisons of different gaming conditions. For instance, if you have a choice between a 2/3 dealt single deck game with no double after splitting, or a 5/6 dealt shoe with DAS, BJA will not only tell you which game is preferable, but also provide you with a framework for comparing the two. And a great deal more. For these alone, the book is worth it's price many times over(not to mention the 3 free months of Trackjack if you buy it here!!!!).
> Being mathematically inclined, I also want to know the
> mathematics and technical aspects behind the
> development of blackjack systems.

> Would you recommend BA 3 for this? If not, what title?

For this you'll want Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack.

> If not. . . Once you've learned the system well at the
> computer,

> I have done quite a bit of the latter two and very
> little of the first. Considering I need to save every
> dime to make up my playing stake, do you think I
> should make an investment and get some software to run
> some sims and other stuff like that?

Again, it's not fun to keep bursting the bubble for you, but yeah. But first a distinction: There are sim programs like CVData and Statistical Blackjack Analyzer, and there are practice programs that "simulate" casino blackjack play. You want the latter; get CVBJ Lite from www.qfit.com. Considering your money situation, I wouldn't worry about getting a sim program yet. Take advantage of Norm's generous www.bjstats.com to get some of the same information.

> Thanks for the response, it gave me some insight and
> perspective on the whole experience to come. And as
> for my decision I probably won't know until I'm
> watching my uncle sitting at the tables. But if worst
> comes to worst I guess I can always enjoy the change
> of scenery and wait another couple of years to become
> a winner.

But hopefully not!

[Designated Driver]

> Thankyou, and I hope so as well!

> On what basis would you make such a bet? I mean, have
> you crunched some numbers yourself and projected a
> different estimate? Is it a semi-intuition" on based on
> what you do know about the game?

When I said that I would "bet on that reality" in the previous post, what I meant was that I agreed that you would probably need at least $2,000 to make $10 an hour and play comfortably at the red chip level with little chance of busting out. It was a joke that taking that action would probably be less risky and more profitable then playing blackjack itself.

I had previously crunched some numbers, calculating optimal bet size in proportion to bankroll, the game and number of hands played, betting spreads based upon the Kelly Criterion or modified proportional betting, associated risk of ruin, and expected win including standard deviation.

> I was incredulous about the $2000 figure when another
> player mentioned it to me a while back, but it's a
> mathematically sound estimate. Bear with me for a
> short analysis of why:

> The game I play, under ideal(no camouflage) sim
> conditions, returns a win rate of roughly 3.5 units
> per 100 hands, with a standard deviation of 2.75/Hand.
> With a bank of $2000 (400 units), I still have a 2.5%
> chance of losing ALL OF IT. At $1500, or 300 units, my
> risk of ruin becomes 6.2%; and at a paltry $1000, I'm
> looking at a 15.7% chance of losing it all.

These statistics look pretty sobering and even forbidding if I do say so myself.

> These numbers should be seen as upper-limits of what
> you can shoot for. My system is a level two count. The
> costs of camouflage and imperfect play will
> necessarilly give you lower returns. Moreover, these
> sorts of returns are considered "excellent"
> in terms of available playing conditions.

If these are the upper-limits, what can you do to squeeze out even more of an advantage and higher profits? I mean a level-3 system like Uston APC doesn't seem worth the extra effort to me. And I am not able to accurately cluster count, predict or steer cards yet.

> As Parker says, card counting is not for the feint of
> heart. Even red chip play.

As one of the feint of heart, I would have to agree. Parker is absolutely right, but I'll try not to let that stop me!

> Hopefully, some of this will help you make the proper
> calculations. And maybe you'll decide, yeah, I only
> have $400 and I know there's a good chance I'll bust,
> but I'm going to give it a go anyway. My point is,
> from an investment standpoint, it would only make
> sense to try at all if that $400 is an initial chunk
> of a larger stake you are willing to eventually
> dedicate towards blackjack.

Thanks, this sounds like an interesting perspective and unfortunately all too accurate making my decision even harder, given that I have to consider whether I am going to return to play again or not.

> The risk of ruin numbers came quoted above came from
> BJA, along with a discussion of what risk of ruin
> means, (aimed at people with your experience or more).
> You'll also find plenty of comparisons of different
> gaming conditions. For instance, if you have a choice
> between a 2/3 dealt single deck game with no double
> after splitting, or a 5/6 dealt shoe with DAS, BJA
> will not only tell you which game is preferable, but
> also provide you with a framework for comparing the
> two. And a great deal more. For these alone, the book
> is worth it's price many times over(not to mention the
> 3 free months of Trackjack if you buy it here!!!!).

> For this you'll want Peter Griffin's Theory of
> Blackjack.

I have a pretty worn copy of this book and refer to it frequently. But my thirst for knowledge is insatiable, and I always want more! Information is power, and hopefully knowledge means profit.

> Again, it's not fun to keep bursting the bubble for
> you, but yeah. But first a distinction: There are sim
> programs like CVData and Statistical Blackjack
> Analyzer, and there are practice programs that
> "simulate" casino blackjack play. You want
> the latter; get CVBJ Lite from www.qfit.com.
> Considering your money situation, I wouldn't worry
> about getting a sim program yet. Take advantage of
> Norm's generous www.bjstats.com to get some of the
> same information.

I do not want to sound argumentative here, but are you saying that practicing with real cards is not enough? I certainly don't have a mock up blackjack table with betting squares and a shoe for the dealer, or even chips for that matter, but I do practice by dealing a few players' hands out of multiple decks, making bets, counting the cards and making playing decisions for the whole table as would be done in a casino to the best of my knowledge and all while I am watching TV. Also, not to be facetious here, but how can a computer simulate casino playing conditions?

But if you think a computer BJ practice program is a must, what do you think about Smart Cards or some of the other software found on this website?

> But hopefully not!

Yeah, let's hope not. I am going primarily to play and win, but if I don't that wouldn't really be that bad would it? I mean it wasn't bad for you, was it? Again I want to thank you for your response which is informative and gives me some things to think about.

Desi. D.

[Myooligan]

> These statistics look pretty sobering and even
> forbidding if I do say so myself.

Which is probably a good thing, what with you being the designated driver and all.

> If these are the upper-limits, what can you do to
> squeeze out even more of an advantage and higher
> profits? I mean a level-3 system like Uston APC
> doesn't seem worth the extra effort to me. And I am
> not able to accurately cluster count, predict or steer
> cards yet.

Well, I use the Zen count with about 100 index numbers. You're right that the gains of going to level 3 are negligible. In terms of a better counting system, really your only options are Hi-Opt II and AO II, both of which require ace side counts. These might get you SCORES 5-10% higher, depending on your game. To me the ace side count isn't worth it, but if you can do it well and easily, that could help.
I think Parker said one time that one of the most important skills for card counters is the ability to shop for dealers. This is something you can start learning now, without even worrying about shuffle tracking and other advanced techniques. For instance, if you're playing single deck, a single card of additional penetration depth can increase your SCORE by as much as 10%!
Still, for the most part, I believe that you'll very rarely achieve play conditions/win rates equal to or better than the ones quoted before.

> I have a pretty worn copy of this book and refer to it
> frequently. But my thirst for knowledge is insatiable,
> and I always want more! Information is power, and
> hopefully knowledge means profit.

I assume you've spent some time at bjmath.com? Also, you might check out some of James Grosjean's articles at blackjackforumonline.com.

> I do not want to sound argumentative here, but are you
> saying that practicing with real cards is not enough?

I don't know. I know I can ramp CVBJ up to 350 hands per hour or more, have it keep all sorts of stats on my play, and tell me how accurate I am. I personally find it indispensable for these features alone. But you're right, a computer will always be a far cry from the real thing. However, some programs are closer than others. I've never tried Smart Cards, but I believe it was created by Richard Reid, who tends to produce quality work. I'm not much of a fan of BJ 6-7-8, it's just sort of clunky all around.

> Yeah, let's hope not. I am going primarily to play and
> win, but if I don't that wouldn't really be that bad
> would it? I mean it wasn't bad for you, was it?

Wasn't bad at all. It's a fun project to me, practice and research and the trips, too.

Again
> I want to thank you for your response which is
> informative and gives me some things to think about.

You're welcome and I'm glad and keep us posted!

[Designated Driver]

> Which is probably a good thing, what with you being
> the designated driver and all.

Being sober, absolutely!

> Well, I use the Zen count with about 100 index
> numbers. You're right that the gains of going to level
> 3 are negligible. In terms of a better counting
> system, really your only options are Hi-Opt II and AO
> II, both of which require ace side counts. These might
> get you SCORES 5-10% higher, depending on your game.
> To me the ace side count isn't worth it, but if you
> can do it well and easily, that could help.

First off I want to say that using 100 index numbers is quite impressive. Do you have any suggestions on how to quickly refresh my memory of the strategy indices? Oh, by the way, what is a SCORE?, I think it's the overall rating used by some computer simulator/practice programs to evaluate the player viability of different blackjack rules and games.

For multiple deck games, particularly six and eight deck shoe games I think that the ace adjustment is too difficult to implement and play accurately in real time at the tables or that if it were the gains would not be large enough to warrant the extra effort required, not to mention the potential for errors along with fatigue and retarding of playing speed. I believe that the primary problem with the ace side count is not in keeping track of the aces as this can be done fairly easily with the aid of "mnemonic" devices like stacking(or removing chips) for aces seen, using a chip as a clock or counting wheel to keep track of the aces played(or remaining), or even counting with your fingers and toes(under the table of course), but that you need to also keep account of the number of cards(quarter decks) played and then use the ace count information to calculate the adjustment needed in order to accurately make each bet. For this reason I will also use the Zen count for these multiple deck games. (Although, because of the increase in playing efficiency I do hope to use AO II in Doulbe deck games and maybe even Four-deck if they still exist, while reserving another still more powerful AOD- Alpha Omega Delta system of my own devising for Single deck play) However I have found that with a slight and simple modification(an Ace-Five side count) I am able to increase the power of the system(Zen) by a significant amount with what I consider to be relative ease. If I remember correctly, I believe the standard Zen count has a Betting Correlation of 96%, a Playing Efficiency of 63% and an Insurance correlation of 85% making it a very powerful and practical system to use as you well know. With my modification the BC becomes about 99%(.9842), the PE 66%(.6635) and the IC 92%(.9154), all without the need of a complicated ace adjustment! I had calculated these figures using the numbers found in Peter Griffin's The Theory of Blackjack.

If you don't mind I would like to ask a question which I have never been able to answer satisfactorily, and while it is closely or somewhat related to ace side counts I think it fits here well. From what I said above, I think it can be seen that I don't particularly like the method or can I say algorithm(procedure of calculation) for the ace side count. You have to keep the ace neutral(usually) and then adjust for the number of aces played for the "standard or normalized" deck by thinking that there are 4 aces in every deck, or one in every 13 cards and if there is one extra that hasn't been played then you then adjust your Running Count and True Count by the corresponding(appropriate) point value. I have many problems with this, the first is that you must keep two different counts, the number of aces played(or remaining) along with the number of cards or quarter decks played, this latter of which is estimated. Secondly, what if the ace is the fourteenth card? For example if in single deck you play 13 cards with no aces and a running count of zero, are you supposed to say that there is an extra ace and adjust your RC(and TC) by the appropriate point value? If you were using an ace reckoned system then you would never add for an ace only subtract as it came out of the deck, so if you played the same single deck game as above using Hi-Lo and you had a RC of zero after 13 cards dealt your True Count would be zero and not positive, and then reflect the(negative) change after the 14th card(the ace) is played. I don't know maybe that wasn't as clear as I would like to be, or I am having difficulty explaining what I am trying to say, but please try to understand and provide me with some clarification or a better explanation.

Would it not be better to use a system with the ace reckoned or assigned point value in the primary count? I mean Wong Halves has a BC of 99% with ace reckoned and Uston APC has also has a BC of 99% with ace neutral after the ace adjustment. Now all things being the same 99%=99%, ease of use and accuracy, etcetera, which system would give a better prediction for betting purposes? I would think Wong Halves, right? Wouldn't it be more accurate to account for the value of the card(ace) when it comes out as opposed to counting it by adjustment while still in play simply because it is considered an "extra" or "deficient" ace?

In the appendix to Chapter 5 of "Theory of Blackjack", Dr. Griffin goes on to explain how a counting system's BC can be modified after taking into account the information of the ace adjustment. For example Uston APC has a BC of 90% without use of an ace side count, and an BC of 99% with the side count(ace adjustment). While I have been able to reproduce most of the figures found in "Theory of Blackjack" I have not been able to fully understand how to calculate this value(the BC with ace side count included).

> I think Parker said one time that one of the most
> important skills for card counters is the ability to
> shop for dealers. This is something you can start
> learning now, without even worrying about shuffle
> tracking and other advanced techniques. For instance,
> if you're playing single deck, a single card of
> additional penetration depth can increase your SCORE
> by as much as 10%!

I remember that you should look for young and inexperienced female dealers, is that still the general rule?

> Still, for the most part, I believe that you'll very
> rarely achieve play conditions/win rates equal to or
> better than the ones quoted before.

> I assume you've spent some time at bjmath.com? Also,
> you might check out some of James Grosjean's articles
> at blackjackforumonline.com.

Maybe once or twice, but thanks for the referrals, I'll be sure to check them out more often(as soon as I'm done with this website).

> I don't know. I know I can ramp CVBJ up to 350 hands
> per hour or more, have it keep all sorts of stats on
> my play, and tell me how accurate I am. I personally
> find it indispensable for these features alone. But
> you're right, a computer will always be a far cry from
> the real thing. However, some programs are closer than
> others. I've never tried Smart Cards, but I believe it
> was created by Richard Reid, who tends to produce
> quality work. I'm not much of a fan of BJ 6-7-8, it's
> just sort of clunky all around.

Speaking of clunky, it's nice to know that actual playing cards still have a place in our casinos and "digital" world. But I can see how computers can have a benefit for us players, partucularly Basic Strategy!

> Wasn't bad at all. It's a fun project to me, practice
> and research and the trips, too.

> Again

> You're welcome and I'm glad and keep us posted!

Thank you and will do.

Desi. D.

[Myooligan]

> First off I want to say that using 100 index numbers
> is quite impressive. Do you have any suggestions on
> how to quickly refresh my memory of the strategy
> indices?

I take it back -- I guess I'm using 130 index numbers. Never counted them up before. They were easier to memorize than I expected, actually! True to form, I do indeed have suggestions for you! A while back I created a spreadsheet designed to identify the EV "slope" near each index number. In effect, it would tell you how critical it is to be totally precise with the index number for a given play. Then, for all the indexes with "mild" slopes, I averaged the single deck figures for each index with multi-deck ones. Finally, I rounded these figures to increments of 5. You can memorize index numbers in increments of 5 in "blocks," it's a hell of a lot easier.

So, I ended up with a single set of indexes for all the standard rules, in increments of five. There are about ten index numbers for which it pays to use the unrounded figures, and a few more that you do need to switch, depending on whether you're playing h17 or s17, etc. I can post them here, if you want.

Oh, by the way, what is a SCORE?, I think
> it's the overall rating used by some computer
> simulator/practice programs to evaluate the player
> viability of different blackjack rules and games.

It's a measurement of ev that takes risk into consideration. Some playing conditions are "wilder" than others (have higher variance) and produce larger bankroll swings. If you have a choice between a "tame" game that brings in 2 units per hour, or a very "wild" game that brings in 2.1 units per hour, the first one is the better choice. Why? Because you can increase your unit size until the game becomes just as "wild" as the second, and end up bringing in more $. For more on this, try a search for "standardized comparison of risk and expectation," or buy BJA!

> If you don't mind I would like to ask a question which
> I have never been able to answer satisfactorily, and
> while it is closely or somewhat related to ace side
> counts I think it fits here well.

There are two ways to adjust the count, and you're right: the one you describe has weaknesses. A slightly easier way (though still too complicated to make it worthwhile, IMHO):

For betting purposes, use the unbalanced true count. In this method, you add +4 to your true count(assuming aces are valued at -1 and you're playing single deck), then subtract 1 for every ace that comes out. For betting purposes, you're playing with an unbalanced count with an IRC of +4; because the pivot point is zero, you are justified to convert to true count just like you would with a balanced count.

> In the appendix to Chapter 5 of "Theory of
> Blackjack", Dr. Griffin goes on to explain how a
> counting system's BC can be modified after taking into
> account the information of the ace adjustment. For
> example Uston APC has a BC of 90% without use of an
> ace side count, and an BC of 99% with the side
> count(ace adjustment). While I have been able to
> reproduce most of the figures found in "Theory of
> Blackjack" I have not been able to fully
> understand how to calculate this value(the BC with ace
> side count included).

Look up my August 16th post, "Here's how you do it. . . "

> I remember that you should look for young and
> inexperienced female dealers, is that still the
> general rule?

and with a name tag that says, "Lolita."