Is the pure math approach to this game that AP's take the only way to win at this game? I do not mean voodoo or progressions, but something tangible that can make our great cover word "variance" more predictable.

Baseball is essentially a game of math also. Not only the great quantity of statistics, but scoring runs is much like hitting and standing in BJ.

If there is a runner on first base with none out, the team at bat has something like a 42% chance to score that run. If the manager elects to have the batter bunt that runner to second base, then the team at bat has a 38% chance to score that runner from secondbase with one out. Therefore statistically, one should never bunt because even if you are successful, you have lowered your chances to score that run. Yet the sacrifice bunt is alive and well in baseball.

I think a significant distinction should be made for full time players and casual players. What is mathematically correct for a full time AP is still correct for a casual AP, but the casual AP may never reach the long run to make these applications correct for him. 'Variance' may well dominate this player, and the decisions/results may not turn out as expected.

We have all seen the player who comes to the table and doubles down his 12 against the dealer six on the first hand. He wins, laughs, and walks away. His decision we all think was wrong, but he won.....so who is wrong?

AP's tend to dismiss all things that cannot equal out the math equation. Not only dismiss, but ofter refuse to even discuss.

Is there something we are missing?